Jam-mie Dodgers

Oct 22, 2015 by

Jam-mie Dodgers

It was a case of close but no cigar last week as Kirsty managed to defeat Daniel in the dance-off after Daniel put in enough foot faults for the judges to overturn the 2 points he had beaten Kirsty by when they danced during the main show.

Unlike X Factor, Strictly does exert a degree of fairness when it comes to dance-offs, and Daniel’s mistakes were enough for all 4 judges to save Kirsty.

Kirsty has certainly been living dangerously and while some of the bookies make her an odds-on shot to leave this weekend there are grounds for believing she will dodge a bullet once more.

Here are this week’s songs and dances:

Ainsley and Natalie are doing the Jive to Bill Haley and the Comets Shake Rattle and Roll
Anita and Gleb are dancing the Tango to Temper Trap’s Sweet Disposition
Carol and Pasha are dancing the Viennese Waltz to Seal’s I’ve Been Loving You Too Long
Georgia and Giovanni are dancing the Salsa to Sylvester’s You Make Me Feel (Mighty Real)
Helen and Aljaz are doing the Quickstep to Diana Ross and the Supremes’ You Can’t Hurry Love
Jamelia and Tristan are dancing the Foxtrot to Celine Dion’s Because You Loved Me
Jay and Aliona are doing the Paso to Bon Jovi’s It’s My Life
Jeremy and Karen are dancing the Waltz to Elvis Costello’s She
Katie and Anton are dancing the Salsa to Michael Buble’s It Had Better Be Tonight
Kellie and Kevin are doing the Jive to One Direction’s One Way Or Another
Kirsty and Brendan are dancing the Viennese Waltz to David Gray’s This Year’s Love
And Peter and Janette are dancing the Rumba to Ed Sheeran’s Thinking Out Loud

Kirsty has a VW to an evocative tune and she has enough dance ability to put in a respectable effort. Factor in the score inflation and positive comments a bottom 2-er the previous week usually receives and even if she lands in the bottom 2 again, she should have a very good chance of defeating any of those who look most under threat this week to join her there.

The big question is whether Carol and Jeremy’s loyal BBC fanbases can vote in big enough numbers to keep them both out of the bottom 2 again. Considering their profiles, there are precedents to suggest they probably have a bit more life in them yet: Bill Turnbull didn’t land in the bottom 2 until week 7 in series 3, and Scott Mills fell into the bottom 2 in week 6 last year. This will officially be Week 5.

Both of them are waltzing too which offers a window for solid efforts but perhaps poses more problems for Jeremy purely because of the height difference between him and Karen and the near impossibility for him to achieve the correct frame. Jeremy has the more stirring tune compared to Carol but they may both find themselves lower on the leaderboard than Kirsty.

The two who look under more threat, at least pre-show, are Jamelia and Ainsley, and they have to be the value ‘dutch’ this week. Jamelia endured the dance-off in the first elimination but since then her narrative has been focusing on improvement.

Foxtrot is one of the more difficult ballrooms to execute well, however, she hasn’t looked comfortable in early training footage, and her and Tristan have a pretty dull song to overcome too.

Jamelia had a fun salsa the week after her bottom 2 appearance and a Charleston helped cement her improvement last week. You sense the foxtrot could put the breaks on her momentum as she has looked much more at home performing fast Latin dances.

It’s a similar story with Ainsley who defeated Anthony in the second elimination dance-off, and got the traditional bounce out of the bottom 2 last week dancing the waltz. He has to take on the jive and training footage suggests he is going to struggle with the light kicks and flicks it requires.

If there is a surprise contestant who ends up in the lower part of the leaderboard it is Katie who has to dance salsa. Given Anton’s struggles to choreograph and perform fast latin routines, you have to fear a repeat of Movie Week when Katie was awarded only 20pts for a lacklustre cha, cha, cha.

In terms of highest scorer, Jay is likely to be back on form dancing the paso and Peter, dancing rumba, is long overdue an early slot. Finding the highest scorer each week is regularly as simple as finding the celeb who is given the pimp slot.

In three out of the four Saturday shows so far this series, the pimp slot has landed highest scorer honours. Given Kellie, dancing jive, and Georgia, dancing salsa, haven’t had the pimp yet, they could be the 2 to focus on, especially as Ainsley (jive) and Katie (salsa) should, in theory, be on earlier in the running order, and score less well.

Advised:

Ainsley – 4th elimination – 9-2 – 2pt win – Coral/William Hill
Jamelia – 4th elimination – 9-1 – 1pt win – Boylesports

16 Comments

  1. george

    I question Jeremy’s support.
    too smug.

    I call Ainsley and Jeremy bottom 2 with Jeremy going.

  2. Rob

    Latest training footage, showing how difficult it is for Jeremy to achieve the correct frame:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/entries/ab5dd60e-826c-4b23-af37-86697b7f264f

    • george

      compare Jeremy’s footage to Katie’s
      she has effortless elegance Jeremy a gawky lurcher.
      Kirsty also looks pretty good with her hair flying around

  3. Frank

    Hi Rob interesting read as always. Do you think the producers want to avoid losing another male? It would leave them with 8 women and 3 men which seems very unbalanced. I agree with your thoughts on Jamelia but looking to cover with Carol assuming they will target a female eviction this week.

  4. Rob

    That has certainly occurred to me, Frank, and is a slight worry. I just think they will have a job getting Carol into the bottom 2 yet based on the past polling of BBC-types.

    Ballroom Bill I don’t think has the same level of popularity as someone like Carol yet he lasted a while longer, and apparently Chris Evans has been canvassing hard on his R2 breakfast show for listeners to vote for Carol.

    It also looks a given it’s Carol, Kirsty, Jamelia, Ainslie and Jeremy departing in the next 5 weekends.

    I fully expect a last 7 of 5 women and 2 men and when you look at it that way maybe it doesn’t matter so much the order the 5 remaining weaker dancers exit.

  5. george

    I’ve just taken some JV for elimination at 11s
    think there is probably a touch of value there but may look to trade out depending on how show goes.

    • Rob

      11s definitely too big, George, and worth a punt. I do think Jezza has built up a decent fanbase and the show probably wants him in a while longer. I guess the question is, will his fans show their support after he performs what looks like will be a very sober waltz.

      Going to be interesting to monitor the scoring of the judges tonight. Ainsley’s jive training has looked very poor but they might inflate his scores.

      • george

        didn’t lay off any JV in running but did back Ainsley although obviously at lower price than the pre show 5s you recomended.

        the question now is how much support JV and Carol have and would the judges save Jamelia a 3rd time given that she is likely to perform better in a dance off than the two remaining duffers.

        kirsty seems to be improving but she doesn’t have the time for practising to get really good and judging by the commments on a recent daily mail article about her she’s not at all popular.

        I guess all we can really say at this point is that JV and Carol must have got more votes than Jamelia?

        • Rob

          Probably a strong chance of another Jamelia bounce out of the bottom 2 especially if she is dancing a fast Latin number.

          What we know so far: Georgia has tango, Katie paso, Jeremy salsa.

          Be interesting to see the full dance list which usually drops around 6.30pm Tuesday evening.

          • george

            thinking about it some more Jeremy had to beat at least 3 or 4 people in the public vote.

            don’t think it is possible for him to have been 3rd from bottom and avoid bottom two.

            think that means if he is bottom of the leader board again this week he has to be 4th from bottom again to avoid bottom 2?

            I guess being on a national radio station with a strong brand image every day must be worth a bit of support.

  6. Rob

    Originally Posted by abigailsmum
    Ainsley v Jamelia

    AINSLEY OUT

    Another great result for readers. 3 out of 4 elims landed in this series. Kellie also landed joint top scorer honours 🙂

  7. Rob

    foxtrot-based American Smooth for Jay with Little Red Riding Hood theme. Described by Aliona as ‘cheeky’. Jay as the big, bad wolf?

  8. Tim B

    Strictly Come Dancing 2015 songs and dances – Week 6 / Halloween

    Anita and Gleb are dancing a Waltz to Once Upon A Dream by Lana Del Rey

    Carol and Pasha are dancing a Rumba to I Think I Love You by The Partridge Family

    Georgia and Giovanni are doing a Tango to Ghostbusters by Ray Parker Junior

    Jamelia and Tristan are dancing a Jive to The Time Warp from the Rocky Horror Picture Show

    Jay and Aliona are dancing a American Smooth to Lil Red Riding Hood by Sam the Sham and The Pharaohs

    Jeremy and Karen are doing a Salsa to Thriller by Michael Jackson

    Helen and Aljaz are dancing a Samba to Take Your Mama by Scissor Sisters

    Katie and Anton are dancing a Paso to Phantom Of The Opera by Steve Harley and Sarah Brightman

    Kellie and Kevin are dancing a Paso to Schools Out by Glee Cast and Hedwig’s Theme by John Williams

    Kirsty and Brendan are dancing a Charleston to Bad Romance by Scott Bradlee’s Postmodern Jukebox

  9. Rob

    Thanks Tim. Jeremy’s salsa should me memorable and hilarious. Jamelia has a very good chance of bouncing out of the bottom 2 with a fun jive to Time Warp.

  10. george

    jay and aliona’s routine sounds like it could have potential but the song is a bit pedestrian

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwNP9HOFvwQ

Leave a Reply

Your e-mail address will not be published. Required fields are marked *