Sunny Outlook For Carol?

Oct 30, 2015 by

Sunny Outlook For Carol?

Ainsley’s departure from Strictly last week provided another winner for readers and made it 3 out of 4 eliminations landed this series, all 3 advised at the generous odds of 9-2.

Earlier this week, initial 5th elimination odds of 4-1 were dangled on Kirsty. This looked exceptional value with one proviso attached: if Kirsty has a Charleston this week it could, just could, offer her an escape clause. And, as it turns out, Kirsty is dancing a Charleston this week.

The full list of dances and songs for Halloween Week are as follows:

Anita and Gleb are dancing a Waltz to Once Upon A Dream by Lana Del Rey
Carol and Pasha are dancing a Rumba to I Think I Love You by The Partridge Family
Georgia and Giovanni are doing a Tango to Ghostbusters by Ray Parker Junior
Jamelia and Tristan are dancing a Jive to The Time Warp from the Rocky Horror Picture Show
Jay and Aliona are dancing a American Smooth to Lil Red Riding Hood by Sam the Sham and The Pharaohs
Jeremy and Karen are doing a Salsa to Thriller by Michael Jackson
Helen and Aljaz are dancing a Samba to Take Your Mama by Scissor Sisters
Katie and Anton are dancing a Paso to Phantom Of The Opera by Steve Harley and Sarah Brightman
Kellie and Kevin are dancing a Paso to Schools Out by Glee Cast and Hedwig’s Theme by John Williams
Kirsty and Brendan are dancing a Charleston to Bad Romance by Scott Bradlee’s Postmodern Jukebox
Peter and Janette are dancing a phantom Foxtrot to Ghost by Ella Henderson

As predicted here, Kirsty enjoyed a bottom 2 bounce last week with a competent VW that was awarded 29pts, but she is going to have to achieve a similar sort of score if not higher with her Charleston to give herself a decent chance of escaping the dance-off.

While a good Charleston can prove popular with voters early training footage hasn’t looked especially promising for Kirsty and she has lacked timing and poise in previous fast routines. It might also be on producers’ minds that if they give Kirsty too much of a boost this will very likely drag one of the clear top 7 dancers in this series into the bottom 2.

Jeremy has been putting in plenty of training ahead of his salsa to ‘Thriller’. It’s a routine that screams tv gold. That might not be enough for Craig to award him more than a 3, but you have to think it will be a big vote-winner with the audience. We might even see 6s or 7s awarded by the other 3 judges which would give Jeremy the chance to escape last place on the judges’ leaderboard.

Meanwhile, Jamelia, after landing in the bottom 2 last week (also predicted here), looks perfectly teed up for another bounce back week dancing a jive to The Time Warp and her footwork has looked good in early training footage.

To ensure her safety we could even see similar scores for her as a couple of Saturdays back when she received a 32 for her Charleston.

After 4 consecutive male celebs have been eliminated, you have to think a woman will be leaving the show this weekend and it is certainly looking extremely tough for Kirsty to survive. Perhaps her only chance of avoiding elimination this week will be if Carol lands bottom 2 with her. However, despite early running order slots and lowest scores along the way, Carol has happily hopscotched through the Strictly minefield so far unscathed, coolly dodging the dance-off bullets like Neo in The Matrix.

Carol has sounded upbeat about her rumba and while she may find herself floating around the bottom of the leaderboard again, you sense her smiley disposition, ‘every woman’ status, the way she has embraced the challenge of learning to dance, and her BBC profile are all adding up to a sizeable vote.

Ballroom Bill Turnbull’s progress in series 3 of Strictly was put forward as a similar case study to Carol and a reason why she would very likely avoid the bottom 2 last week. Halloween Week will officially be Week 6 and it wasn’t until Week 7 that Bill landed in the bottom 2 and got his marching orders.

Interestingly, he danced a rumba in Week 6, was last on the leaderboard, and still escaped the bottom 2 in a 7-strong field. Carol was on early last week in trap 2 and sandwiched between 2 big hitters in Georgia and Anita who outscored her by 10 and 11pts respectively. No probs for Carol as she was called safe again.

After enduring trap 1 in Movie Week, and trap 2 last week Carol should also be due a later running order position tomorrow night. You also sense the show is more invested in Carol than Kirsty purely as someone who is a BBC favourite able to give the show a constant plug on the Breakfast programme and Chris Evans Radio 2 Breakfast Show as viewers and listeners have become invested in her progress.

It’s also worth remembering there is usually only a backlash against voting for the underdog, inferior dancers if they are kept on the show at the expense of losing one of the series’ stronger dancers. And this hasn’t happened yet so there is no reason why Carol’s support should suddenly dwindle.

There has been a news story this week that Craig fears Peter’s days on the show are numbered unless he starts improving fast. This could well have been planted with a view to Peter bouncing back tomorrow night with his foxtrot and surpassing his highest series score so far of 32. Producers must be keen to keep this series looking competitive and the show really needs Peter in the latter stages. Otherwise, Jay will likely end up the only remaining male dancer in the competition, up against 5 women.

In terms of highest scorer, Anita’s waltz, set to Lana Del Rey, looks a potential triumph, Katie’s paso training has looked more promising than Kellie’s, but from a pimp slot perspective Georgia is the one who is due. She is the only one among the top 7 in the market not to have received the pimp slot and can feel pretty hard done by having never danced later than 6th in the running order up to now. On ITT earlier this week, however, Ian Waite did pick up on her footwork errors so she will need to have ironed those out. If she has, 10-1 looks potentially a big price.

As for lowest scorer, with Jeremy having a sporting chance of mustering a 21 or higher, as long as he maintains his timing throughout the jive, there could be a bit of value in dutching Carol at 11-4 and Kirsty at 5-1 with Coral.

Given Kirsty was much shorter on my tissue this week, she still looks the 5th elimination value at 2-1, as the most likely scenario will see her up against one of the series big guns in the dance-off. Keep a close eye on the Halloween makeovers too as the worst ones are potentially a real vote-killer.

Advised:

5th elimination – Kirsty – 3pt win – 2-1 – Boylesports, Betfred

Highest scorer – Georgia – 0.5pt e/w – 10-1 – Coral (e/w 1, 2, a third the odds)

Anita – 1pt win – 100-30 – Coral

24 Comments

  1. James

    Hi Rob

    Well thought out analysis as always. I think 11/4 on Carol finishing bottom of the leaderboard looks decent value.

    If you look at the rumba scores from previous female contestants with similar abilities to Carol, all scored poorly (Esther Rantzen 16, Gloria Hunniford 17, Fiona Phillips 13, Jo Wood 18, Anne Widdicombe 14, Nancy Dell’Olio 14). I see Carol scoring no better than an 18 on Saturday.

    Even if Kirsty dances poorly, it’s hard to see her scoring less than 20, so the question is can Jeremy score 19?

    Assuming that Craig will score him 3/10, he will need to pick up 16 points from the other three judges. His average score from Darcey is 5.8, from Len is 6.0 and from Bruno is 5.0.

    So it’s likely to be a close run thing, but the value lies with betting on Carol.

  2. Rob

    Hi James. I think you are spot on with your analysis. I guess the main worry is, Jeremy going wrong and losing timing but I reckon if he gets through his jive relatively unscathed, worst case scenario might be a 3, 6, 6, 5 which would be enough for him to avoid bottom spot if you are proved correct and Carol only receives 18.

    It might even be a case of 23 for Jeremy, a 3, 7, 7, 6 scenario. Looks like Kirsty’s Charleston is going to be very basic including plenty of lifts (Brendan’s way of protecting her). I expect judges to pick up on this and be harsh in their scoring.

  3. Rob

    Anita dancing 4th tonight.

  4. george

    hard one this week,
    will wait until scores are in before trying to bet.

    must be between Kirsty, Carol and Jamelia

    who would go if Kirsty and Jamelia bottom 2?

    • Rob

      I would expect Kirsty to go in that scenario, george. I think they will likely try and really ramp Jam & probably over-score her to try and ensure her safety.

  5. Rob

    Certainly a serious test for Carol’s support. She is gone if she is b2; probably worth a saver at 15-8 at the moment for 5th elim to cover Kirsty stakes.

  6. Rob

    Highest scorer Georgia landed at 10-1. Hope plenty of readers were on. Well done James with lowest scorer too 🙂

  7. Bruce

    Yes took some 10/1 Rob. Have to say you really are in quite exceptional tipping this Strictly series many congratulations

  8. Rob

    Great stuff Bruce. Worth a saver on Carol for 5th elim but ties give her a squeak

  9. george

    had some georgia at 8s
    laid off kirsty for elim at loss,
    backed carol to go

  10. george

    had some georgia at 8s
    laid off kirsty for elim at loss,
    backed carol to go

  11. Rob

    Kirsty vs Jamelia. Kirsty OUT.

    I should have charged a subscription 😉 Another great week for EntOdds followers 🙂

  12. James

    Well done Rob on yet another successful week.

    Pleased to see my ‘Carol lowest score’ bet land. I was getting a little worried after seeing Kirsty’s dreadful charleston!

  13. James

    Infact that was a historically bad charleston. Previously 28 female celebrities had performed that dance and the only ones to score lower than 26 were Fern Britton (23), Judy Murray (18) & Ann Widdecombe (17).

    Who would have thought Kirsty would have been in that esteemed company at the start of the series!

    • Rob

      I did think she looked poor in training, James, regardless of her ‘losing timing’ tonight. Brendan also did his usual – picking her up and doing several lifts so she had to dance less to conceal her ineptitude.

      She was one of the lays of the series in single figs. I could never see her as a contender. Similar to Gaby Logan, she has that tough and cold veneer working in a predominantly male environment. Also extremely deluded about her ability and completely toxic in terms of the Strictly vote.

      • James

        I completely agree that Kirsty’s persona (and lack of a BBC connection) was always likely to make her an improbable contender. The surprise, for me at least, was that her performances were so poor.

        It would seem that, despite the shows best efforts, Jamelia is regularly receiving the lowest public vote. Hard to see her avoiding the dance off again next week.

        • george

          I really underestimated the loyalty the audience seems to have towards duffers in this show.

          Just don’t understand what the motivation was to vote for carol last night?

  14. Rob

    It’s that ideal BBC profile, George, as elucidated in my article. Continually under-estimated. The likes of Jeremy and Carol have been manna from heaven in this series for creating value in the elimination markets. I think the golden period has probably now ended.

  15. Rob

    What we know so far. Slight doubt over VW for Jamelia as this is based on a Nat Lowe comment last night on ITT that wasn’t entirely audible:

    Anita & Gleb – Jive
    Carol & Pasha – American Smooth
    Georgia & Giovanni – samba
    Helen & Aljaz – ?
    Jamelia & Tristan – Viennese Waltz
    Jay & Aliona – ?
    Jeremy & Karen – Tango
    Katie & Anton – Quickstep
    Kellie & Kevin – Waltz
    Peter & Janette – Charleston

  16. Rob

    Anita and Gleb are Jiving to ‘The Boy Does Nothing’ by former Strictly winner Alesha Dixon.

    Carol and Pasha dance the American Smooth to ‘Man! I feel Like a Woman’ by Shania Twain.

    Georgia and Giovanni dance the Samba to ‘Volare’ by The Gipsy Kings.

    Helen and Aljaz will Rumba to ‘Hello” by Adele.

    Jamelia and Tristan perform the Viennese Waltz to ‘Trouble’ by Ray LaMontagne.

    Jay and Aliona perform the Argentine Tango to ‘Diferente’ by The Gotan Project.

    Jeremy and Karen are dancing the Tango to ’Go West’ by The Pet Shop Boys.

    Katie and Anton will Quickstep to ‘42nd Street’ from the musical 42nd Street.

    Kellie and Kevin are going to Waltz to ‘Love Ain’t Here Anymore’ by Take That.

    Peter and Janette will Charleston to ‘Do your Thing’ by Basement Jaxx.

  17. James

    Hi Rob. Interesting to see that Jamelia will be dancing the VW this week. Historically this is a dance in which female celebrities tend to perform well.

    This year for example, Katie, Kirsty & Carol have all received VW scores which were much higher than their series average.

    This dance selection would suggest the Strictly producers are not actively trying to get rid of Jamelia this week.

    Of course, Jamelia has not been great in the ballroom dances to date, so any training room footage we see will tell us more about her survival prospects.

    • Rob

      I was thinking along similar lines, James. I think there will more likely be a concerted effort to enable Jamelia to escape the dance-off. VW the ideal opportunity to give her her highest score of the series.

  18. Frank

    Rob, Jamelia 66/1 Top score EW looks a cracking bet this week.

    • Rob

      Hi Frank. Looks like you managed to snap up best price there – I see Jamelia is now 25s with Coral.

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