Tana On Thin Ice
And so, the markets have shifted markedly once more after the men skated competitively for the first time. Our belief that Gary Lucy’s odds were too short was the right call, as was our suggestion he would struggle in the public vote.
With so many contestants within close proximity in skating ability this looks a series in which you need to focus on, more than ever, who you think will win the public over the most.
Our pre-series belief that Lucy, Richardson and Young would all fall into the same ‘unremarkable’ category stands – there’s just nothing about these three personality or back story wise to inspire.
Mikey Graham, on the other hand, not only showed himself to be a top skater in the making, but he has the ability to produce a performance and looks to have a powerful body of support courtesy of Boyzone, doing it for Gately, and his own determination and Irish charm. We recommend taking the 9-2 on Graham on the Outright, and piling into the 3s available on him being Top Male.
Of the remaining men, Jeremy Sheffield remains a possible series runner. He can definitely perform on the ice, produces great lines and can interpret the music better than any other contestant but his skating needs to improve massively. We reckon he has good public support and potentially has about a month to improve on the ice before he’ll be vulnerable to the skate off. We’ve recommended backing him already but 25s on the Outright and 14s to be Top Male demand further investment because if he can improve on the ice he looks the classic ‘journey’ contestant, and his odds will fall.
Based on what we’ve seen in the past so many times on shows like DOI and SCD, there’s invariably a sympathetic edit for the contestant who was bottom 2 the week before, often backed up by encouraging words about ‘bouncing back in style’ by the judges. This is enough to dissuade us from backing Sharron Davies – despite Coral dangling the enticing carrot of 3-1 – to be next out.
Dr Hilary and Jeremy Sheffield may not be the strongest skaters but both have solid fan bases, as we see it, and the same can probably be said for Emily Atack, who looks capable of improving markedly on her week one performance and also benefits from having a popular pro partner, though she could still find herself in a tricky spot on the leaderboard.
For how long the public are willing to support Heather Mills after having it rammed down their throats what an amazing job she is doing on one leg is difficult to assess, especially given she had such a poor public persona in the first place. We reckon she could be bottom two on Sunday but looks a reasonable bet to survive up against any of the other bottom 5 skaters, which enables us to reach the conclusion Tana Ramsay has to be the bet at 9-2 to be next eliminated.
It is also worth backing Heather Mills to be in the bottom 2 at 4-1 with Boylesports, and in terms of bottom two combos, we see the value residing in Emily/Tana (20s), Heather/Tana (20s) and Emily/Heather (33s).
Rob Furber