Wham Bam Thank You Pam
Dancing On Ice returns to our screens on Sunday and the big question is, are we set to have another GB Olympic gymnast crowned a reality tv show winner – with Beth Tweddle trying to follow up Louis Smith’s victory in Strictly Come Dancing?
Beth has already been heavily supported, and is into a best price of 9-4. She is partnered with the highly popular Dan Whiston, who won DOI series 1 with Gaynor Faye and series 5 with Hayley Tamaddon.
However, she is possibly not shaping up as well on the ice as the market is predicting. In the DOI press release information, Beth states she fell over four times during the first day of training; Samia Ghadie, on the other hand, says she didn’t fall over for four weeks.
There are two ways of reading this sort of thing. Gymnast Beth is not a natural ice skater and has been struggling whereas Samia has taken to it much better, or Olympian Beth was willing to go all out from the start, trying to progress to difficult moves which led to falls, while Samia has been much more careful.
Of course, day one can be a far cry from where contestants are at now in their skating ability, and we still respect Beth’s chance greatly and wouldn’t want to be red on her. That said, 9-4 looks short enough and we would rather look elsewhere for some pre-series value and, at the very least, one or two potential back to lay contestants.
Second favourite is Matt Lapinskas, partnered with 2011 winner Brianne Delcourt. He looks like being this year’s highly proficient, heart-throb male soap star a la Matt Wolfenden (1st), Sam Attwater (1st) and Chris Fountain (2nd).
Matt studied in the performing arts and something else that jumped out at us was when reading the contestants’ press release quotes – Matt says, ‘I now find I fall over trying to do the lifts’. The fact the guy has already progressed to lifts looks another plus for him so certainly 4-1 e/w first 3 with Coral looks like it could be a bet to nothing.
Former X Factor winner Shayne Ward will be vying for the good looking male vote, and another potential plus for him is being partnered with the likeable Maria Filippov, who won DOI partnering Ray Quinn in 2009. It’s hard to tell how well he will cope with the ice but Shayne could certainly prove to have strong votability among the ITV audience. In terms of potential ice skating ability, however, Luke Campbell is possibly a stronger proposition.
Luke won Olympic bantamweight gold in 2012, is 5 foot 9 (smaller = better balance, in theory) and will likely be willing to throw himself into the challenge of skating. He says, ‘I want to show young kids that with hard work and determination you can reach your goals.’ It’s a worthy mission statement perhaps hinting at Luke’s likeable personality. However, he may suffer for not being particularly well known among viewers and is partnered with newcomer to the show Jenna Nicole Smith so again, lack of familiarity could be seen as a slight negative.
Gareth Thomas proved popular on Celebrity Big Brother last year placing 3rd, and has the plus of a potential big Welsh vote. He is 6ft 3 however and informs he has been falling over at least once every day in training. These two facts combined are somewhat off-putting as ice-skating tends to favour those with a low centre of gravity.
It’s a rather dull conclusion to reach but among the 4 males at the head of the market, we end up favouring Matt, though we will be keeping a very close eye on Shayne and Luke, and at current Betfair odds, we reckon Luke is worth a small investment at 11.5.
Samia Ghadie has the advantage of being on ITV’s Coronation Street and familiar to the audience. The early hints are that she will be a very decent skater too, but recent press coverage of Samia looks a definite negative.
Tabloid stories have centred on her relationship with pro partner Sylvain Longchambon, leaving her husband for him, with Sylvain’s former partner, Jennifer Metcalfe, stating she has been ‘kicked in the teeth’. It is the sort of sordid tabloid tittle tattle that cannot be viewed as good news for Samia’s long-term prospects on the show as DOI voters can prove a very conservative mob. Samia may be able to turn public opinion around but at series start it is enough for us to leave her well alone.
Pamela Anderson showed enough dance ability and likability to reach the last 6 in Dancing With The Stars season 10. Being Canadian-born she is likely to have a natural affinity with skating too, and press pictures of her on the ice suggest she is decent. Best known for her role in Baywatch, she has the potential negatives to overcome of her pin-up looks, as well as not being from the UK. She is also no spring chicken at 45 but this could turn into a positive if viewers see her commit to the ice and successfully pull off difficult moves.
Overall, we reckon Pamela‘s potential positives far outweigh her negatives, and always take a view that reality tv betting rules (‘Americans do not win UK reality shows’) are there to be broken. We could see her have a great run in the series paired with much-liked pro skater Matt Evers and she looks definite value at 14-1 e/w with Coral (16-1 with SkyBet, win-only), and at a widely-available 7-1 to be Top Female. You are relying on Beth not coming up to scratch, or Pam proving herself exceptional, but if nothing else she could prove a decent trade.
Among the rest, we would have major reservations over the likability of Lauren Goodger and Anthea Turner, Oona King looks an also-ran, and prime contender for 1st elimination, while former I’m A Celebrity winner, Joe Pasquale, could have a run as this year’s ‘Todd Carty’ comedy contestant, and may have some back-to-lay potential.
The one potential springer we favour over Pasquale is Keith Chegwin. He was all set to appear in DOI in 2012, only to break his shoulder and three ribs in training. He will likely receive an immediate voting boost for his bravery in returning to the show and getting back on the ice after such a nasty injury. Not only this, but we must assume he has been training on the ice much longer than the others.
Aged 55 and something of a kids’ tv icon for anyone who grew up in the 80s – also remembered for presenting one-off game show ‘Naked Jungle’ in the buff – former alcoholic Cheggers has had a somewhat chequered career.
There’s a reasonable chance he could be taken to the hearts of the DOI audience and prove much better than a 50-1 shot. It is asking a hell of a lot for him to win the series but we would advise taking anything over 50 on him on Betfair, and some of the 40-1 e/w and 22-1 to be Top Male, both with Coral, in the hope of a significant price collapse.
Where do you see the pre-lives value? Can Samia overcome her recent tabloid coverage? Could Beth prove something of a good thing? Is Matt too much in the same mould as the last two DOI winners? Please do join in the debate below.
Rob Furber
Hi Rob, many thanks for the DOI coverage. I’m very much an eviction/elimination punter on these shows but always like to have something on the outright. I agree that Beth is now probably too short, but I’ve had a small investment in her nonetheless.
I’m not really familiar with Matt or Samia as celebrities and, other than being on Coronation Street, I don’t see why the latter will be much of a contender. Matt will no doubt be impressive on the ice and will receive a female vote. However I think Shayne Ward is much more of an attractive prospect. He is better looking than Matt imo, and has a look that I think is more appealing to housewives and gay men. He’s also very athletic – I follow him on twitter and he has long been tweeting about aching from the gym and drinking protein shakes. Having been in Rock of Ages in the West End, Shayne will also be very used to choreography and performing. He also has the highest number of twitter followers among the favourites and should benefit from a strong North West regional vote. I’ve invested in him at 8.0 E/W with Coral.
I 100% agree that Pammy is a good investment at the current odds. She’ll be a very strong skater and, despite the obvious concerns about her votability, you’d expect her to be much more impressive than most for the reasons you’ve outlined. I also think the judges may inflate her scores, if necessary, to keep her in as the most famous and highest-profile celebrity in the line up. I think it’s likely she’ll be the second last female standing (skating?) and whilst she won’t win, I think her odds are certain to come down.
Cheggers is another good shout for a back-to-lay candidate. I was initially thinking Joe Pasquale, as a popular and likeable character who’s won I’m A Celeb, but I agree that Cheggers is quite likely to receive a sympathy vote given his injuries last year.
Oona King is the prime candidate for first elimination, being a politician for demographic reasons. Anthea Turner and Lauren Goodger are no-hopers, imo, and Pammy should prove an excellent elimination lay in the first few weeks.
At this stage my instincts tell me the final three will be Beth, Matt and Shayne.
Rob, am I correct in thinking this will be your only DOI post? If so, I think we should keep the discussion going under this post.
Hi Rob,
Wrote a long response piece, but then computer problems managed to scrub the lot 🙁
Still, am actually relieved, on now reading Tim B’s piece, as mine would have looked a virtual carbon copy, in places.
Thanks for posting, Tim, & you certainly build a strong case for Shayne at 7-1 e/w. Regional vote, Twitter followers, the fact he has some West End experience & is in great shape… all look positives for him.
One potential downside is him & Lapinskas maybe splitting the male heart-throb vote & am keen to see how well Shayne takes to the ice in relation to Matt’s skating skills.
It is a growing trend on these shows that the market leaders at series start prove to be there at the business end. Hoping Pamela will at least prove herself a much stronger skater than her current odds imply.
DOI doesn’t offer the scope for training room clues we get with Strictly, & it’s very much a show to be analyzed in-running, so there will be no weekly coverage here, Tim.
The elimination market can prove lucrative & think your idea is a good one – to keep discussion going on this thread. Hopefully, we will see some elim prices in next day or two.
Apologies, Guildo. It’s a glitch that probably requires switching the site to a new theme, & new server host.
The way to ensure you do not lose your post is to copy the password but then copy your message, so if it disappears when you try to post it, you can paste it back in. It’s not ideal & hopefully the techie guys will come up with a solution soon.
Interesting you also like the look of Shayne. At nearly double the price of Matt, there is certainly a case to be made for him being fair value.
Excellent write up as always Rob.
Still trying to get my money on, so I won’t say to much, but I generally agree.
The problem I’d have with Matt, is altho I expect him to be very good, he knows it and comes across as a c0cky little sod.
He might be the best skater of the young guys, but potentially the least likeable.
As for Samia. I wouldn’t worry too much about the newspaper stories. She’s a very popular character on Corrie and no one likes Jennifer Metcalfe
Thanks Rob, will try not to commit to much in the outright since I have no clue about the show and being mainly elim punter as Tim. Btw, is the skate-off show live and is there a lot judges manipulation like on X?
Interesting observation about Matt, fiveleaves. Certainly have some reservations on another heart-throb male soap star winning this.
Was it cockiness that did for Chris Fountain? Recall thinking Sam Attwater wouldn’t win cos he was coming across as rather too full of himself – remember the photoshoot of him & Brianne in bed together?
Always difficult to gauge the impact of such character traits & raw skating talent will likely take a contestant a long way.
Yes, Boki, skate-off is live & it is usually judged fairly. Under pressure, you sometimes see contestants make errors & this is usually picked up on by judges.
Skate-off results can be a reverse of points positions on the leaderboard.
Robin has had the casting vote when it was 3 judges; this year sees a return to 4 judges but Robin still has casting vote if his vote makes it 2-2.
Oh no, not a casting vote! I’ve not watched enough of these dancing shows to see one of those yet. I’d much prefer an X Factor/BGT style deadlock, but I guess I’ve got to leave my comfort zone at some point ;).
Interesting that leaderboard positions can be reversed following a skate off. We probably have to pay attention to the skate off, then, in contrast to the the irrelevant sing off on X Factor where the result is determined beforehand and regardless of it.
Hi Rob,
I did practise the safeguard of copying my message, but when I began the process of resubmitting, I copied the *Copy This Password*, pasted it and only then realised I had overwritten my message (I think?) from my clipboard.
Total “Do’h!” moment!
Don’t rate Matt Lapinskas in the heartthrob stakes. I imagine the only woman who fancied him as sensible Alfie Moon was Shona McGarty.
Wallpaper candy? :-
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/dancing_on_ice/4703107/matt-lapinskas-dancing-on-ice-injury.html
Lol!
I wanted to go see Shayne as Stacey Jaxx in Rock of Ages, the irreverent show sounded my kind of musical. Simon Lipkin from the sublime Avenue Q was another attraction.
How SyCo didn’t manage to make a superstar of smoking hot Shayne Ward is forever to their shame. Check any picture of Shayne on Google Images.
Check this photograph [scroll down after opening page}:
http://www.sundayworld.com/showbiz/?aid=6127
Matt Lapinskas may have done performing arts (which will include ballet and tap) at college but that is not a stone-clad guarantee he can dance. We know he’s an o.k. actor and that he enjoys playing guitar, but whether this can be extended into his being a Gene Kelly triple threat is another matter.
Still, he’s had more specialist dance training than Shayne. Stage movement skills and general dance movement training (for a show) do not compare to two scholastic years of part-time training in specific dance disciplines (he will also have experience of choreographing dances). Tap teaches you timing and requires looseness of body and fleetness of feet; while ballet will help Matt maintain lean body lines on the ice.
Would be interested to know what activities Shayne practises at the gym. Whether he is into strength training, cardiovascular training or if he prefers studio classes.
I notice Samia praised Sylvian Longchambon for qualities including ‘patience’. I wonder if I can infer from this that she is a slow, steady learner. She looks a bit dainty and frail to me. I imagine Beth Tweddle assumed she could immediately translate her gymnastic skill level to ice skating, and that’s why she fell over those four times on her first day. I hope that she forgot you need to crawl before you can speed-walk. Gymansts are tough cookies and are long-used to bouncing.
Luke Campbell is kinda cute, though a little boring, and I place him above Matt in the heart-throb stakes.
Boxers. Hmmmm. Memories of Joe Calzaghe on SCD! A coat stand would have made a more fluid partner! And flexible…and charasmatic…!
Mind you, Joe was a light-heavy at the tail-end of his career and renowned for punch volume; whereas Luke fights at bantam. Would be interested to know if Luke has ever dabbled in skateboarding etc.
Gareth Thomas is ex rugby and will have a very unhelpful body shape, weight and muscle type for skating. Good luck to him.
Took an identical position to you, Rob, on Pammy, and took the 16s, and therefore broke my vow never to back an American in a British competition show, after losing out on my man Vanilla Ice a couple of years ago.
Seeing as Kimbo relegated herself below DVO on SCD with the ‘Crazy in Love’ dance, I can’t see how Pam, who looks like a woman created by a male computer programmer, a woman who even asleep would cause the Orgasmatron to explode; I can’t see how Pam can gain the vote support.
As you explain, Rob, there could be some value with Cheggers but just can’t bring myself to back him, especially because of this image of a banana:
http://subsiren.wordpress.com/2012/03/17/aylesbury-duo-score-kill-keith-soundtrack/
In week 1 of DOI last year we had such an instance: Heidi Range from the Sugababes was 5th on the leaderboard with 12.5pts; Andy Akinwolere, Blue Peter presenter, was 3rd with 14pts.
Skate-off was Heidi vs Andy A & Heidi won the vote to save 2-1 after Robin saved her with casting vote.
Running order for Melodifestivalen has been announced. To me it suggests they want Ukrik Munther to win. His song is also titled ‘Tell The World I’m Here’ which seems approriate for the Swedish song hosting at eurovision, don’t you think? In contrast to this I would say Amanda’s song title ‘Dumb’ is unsuitable. It also looks like there may be some value to be had outside of the four bookies’ favourites.
Thanks Tim. Interesting news. Certainly suggests Munther will be a strong contender. Danny Saucedo got the pimp slot in the last heat last year and, of course, didn’t win.
Some reckoned it was an advantage for Loreen to be in the first heat, & thus have more airplay. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out this year.
Thanks Tim, certainly agree with your comments and for those like me thinking he’s a lock to qualify I can advise the best odds of 1.75 @Betsson.
Hi Rob,
A question regarding site moderation.
I think I have seen a few posts of mine flagged up to me with a header of: ‘Your comment is awaiting moderation’. And I think I recall one didn’t get to see the green light of acceptance.
I have a post currently on this thread that has been subject to moderation for two and a half days now.
So I’m wondering what it is about the content and/or tone of my post that is causing it’s non-acceptance.
If I know what the house rules or preferences are then I can tailor my posts so as to abide by them.
Thanks.
Matt Evers@TheMattEvers
Ok wow… That was a long day. Well worth it though. Y’all r in for a gr8 @dancingonice Sunday!
Pam’s pro partner. So sounds promising for her on Sunday
Thanks for the comprehensive post, Guildo. Need to ask the tech heads about ‘awaiting moderation’ – not sure why this is sometimes applied to posts… will try & find you an answer asap.
Think this issue has hopefully now been resolved, Guildo – there is a setting regarding number of links in a post. It was set at 2. Yours had 3 so was filed under ‘awaiting moderation’. Have now changed this to 10 so no longer a problem, and posts will appear straight away (unless there are 11 links in the post!)..
You outline the concern over Pam’s public vote well, Guildo. Hopefully she can change perceptions & being older helps her.
And a promising Tweet from Evers there, fiveleaves.
Looks like 6 will compete tomorrow night; 6 the week after.
There is a results show tomorrow so assume a bottom 2, & a skate-off, & skate-off different from previous years according to the story below.
DS suggesting first 6 to compete tomorrow night will be: Beth, Shane, Matt, Samia, Pamela and Keith
If someone is leaving, that’s a very tough heat.
Dancing on Ice has introduced a new elimination skate-off twist for the show’s eighth series, it has been revealed.
The show’s stars and mentors Torvill & Dean announced at today’s press launch that this year’s celebrities would be allowed to perform ‘Save Me Skates’ for the first time in the show’s history.
Inspired by the success of X Factor’s Sunday results shows – where the bottom two acts pick their own songs to persuade the judges to save them – the bottom two celebrity skaters in the public vote will now have the chance to perform their own self-taught routine.
Torvill & Dean will step back and the celebrities and their pro partners will have to create their own choreography, pick their own music and create their own personalised routine.
It will be the celebs’ last chance to impress the judges and was described by Dean as a “final plea on their knees” from the skating stars.
Dancing on Ice returns this weekend on Sunday night (January 6) on ITV1.
This year’s contestants include Pamela Anderson, Shayne Ward and Corrie star Samia Ghadie.
Jason Gardiner and Karen Barber return to the judging panel in 2013, alongside show regular Robin Cousins and newcomer Ashley Roberts.
Excellent post GHF
I’d agree with most of it.
I’m happy to go into the live shows with the front 2 red.
Beth looked rather wobbly to me in the small clip we saw of her on This Morning
http://www.itv.com/thismorning/showbiz/dancing-on-ice-stars-2013/
Samia looked much smoother and controlled on the ice.
There was nothing of Pam, but the tweets and rumours are positive, so Beth could easily be the 3rd best female.
Not an easy position to win from.
Matt I suspect will be very good, but I just don’t like the guy. He has an air of c0ckiness about him and unless he’s as good as Quinn I expect that will lead to him coming up short in the public vote.
The one I’m most interested at the price is Gareth.
An extremely likeable and enthusiastic guy and from the short clip I was impressed with his speed over the ice.
Yes he fell over a couple of times, but that’s down to him pretty fearless, as you’d expect from an ex rugby player and throwing himself into it fully.
As for body shape, should height matter if he’s in the right proportions?..and wasn’t/isn’t there a very tall male pro on the show?
His pro partners tweets are all very encouraging too.
I think at 16/1 he’s worth a punt.
That looks a very tough heat if true and suggests one or 2 of them might not be as good as we are expecting.
Hopefully Beth being one of them 😉
Also it suggests some of those in the 2nd heat are better than expected.
Gareth with any luck 😀
I think Lauren could be better than many expect too.
Gosh, that’s an extremely tough heat if correct. Would hope they wouldn’t play all their trump cards so soon but we’ll see.
Is anyone else getting involved with Splash! tonight on ITV1? It’s a new show, so will be keeping stakes small, but it looks pretty straightforward to me. A diving show with celebrities almost naked would surely produce a male winner. Jake Canuso and Anthony Ogogo look like great contenders in very good shape, so I’ve dutched them in the outright. I’m also backing Jake to win tonight’s heat, after youtubing him to discover he is actually British and not Spanish like the womanising lothario he plays on Benidorm. Betfair market open as well for those who fancy a bit of trading.
Yes, reports suggest Canuso could be the man to beat & weight of money for him also hints at his impressive training. 7-2 with Betway now best price – no idea who they are.
Tim, thanks for the Splash alert. It wasn’t so straightforward at the end but luckily I followed it live and could place corrections for a small profit.
Rob, I used Betway for couple of years without problems (at least before they closed their door to me).
Rg DOI first heat, it sounds really like an impossible one. Not sure if DS can be trusted in that matter? I hope they are right since the odds will tumble then.
Splash first show was a bit rubbish for me. Apart from Jake there were some wildly inflated scores e.g. Omid’s 9.0 for a belly flop. Despite Omid in the pimp slot I expected Jake to beat him in the vote and therefore win the heat. Jake’s VT was highly sympathetic so they clearly wouldn’t have minded him winning this heat. I wouldn’t rule Jake out at all of winning the show – his running order and injury clearly hindered him, so I think it’s right for him still to be bookies’ favourite despite not topping the vote. Definitely seems like a show to bet on in-play rather than trying to figure out beforehand. In retrospect, the 5.0 on Omid winning the heat was a steal.
Yes, agree Tim. One for in-play trading. Having got some of the 13-8 Jake to win the heat with Coral pre-show, as soon as Omid said he would be diving from the 10 metre board, from the pimp slot, managed to get a bit of the 5-1 quoted on him.
Long for the days of unrestricted accounts because, as you say, the 5-1 & bigger quoted on Omid was an absolute steal, & there was a big window for a guaranteed decent profit if either of Jake or Omid won the heat, & it was guaranteed one of them would win the heat.
Jake for me too Tim.
Jenni has said in a number of interviews how good he is.
I missed the 8/1, but have backed @ 6/1 and downwards
Thanks Rob for explaining and resolving that moderation issue 🙂 Had been getting a bit paranoid!
Great and revealing link, fiveleaves. Have watched it through a couple of times now, eyes trained on the screens playing the background training footage. With bonus fun to be had from watching Eamonn Holmes questioning Anthea Turner in the studio. Lol.
Am very concerned at Beth’s lack of progress. Not getting down and getting funky. Bend your knees, girl!
The female gymnast I know also teaches cheerleading and so I am used to gymnasts having an aptitude for dance-type movements and routines.
Beth’s comments remind me of a staple cliché from modern dance movies (ballet vs streetdance).
Think I will not blink and keep the faith, for now.
Am keen to know if all the footage was filmed on the same day; or at different times (and thus stages of development).
Samia looked nicely balanced on the ice and is a very pretty girl. An ice princess. But am bearing in mind the possibility of further revelations in the relationship saga surrounding her. Jason Gardner is already stirring the pot with his comments.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/dancing-on-ice-jason-gardiner-not-1517484
She’s busy with her Corrie schedule so to be as good on the ice as she appears to be suggests she is a natural.
Not sure what position to take on Samia.
Completely agree with you, fiveleaves, on Matt.
Check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=li4bi2s2ESY
O.G.!!
Fingers crossed, Shayne is at or near the same skating ability level as Matt.
Disagree on Gareth.
Got on Canuso at 5s and 9/2. My Lord! – the man has the ultimate competition-specific backstory of all time.
It’s another good find, Guildo, & very unflattering for Matt. This DOI series is shaping up to be very difficult to call. Can make a case for the first 6 in the betting, but can also see clear potential negatives for each of them too. Then you have a possible journey contestant like Keith (if he can survive week 1).
Tonight could throw the cat among the pigeons. Maybe the show is hoping for a high profile week 1 departure for controversy & to increase column inches. Elimination betting could certainly be lively this evening.
Would be opposed to Matt on personality grounds if it wasn’t for the fact you sense he is going to be very good, & being very good can take you a long way in this, & you can even win regardless of character deficiencies. Sam Attwater springs to mind here.
Sense Matt could prove a Gary Lucy-type, & a better skater. Not especially likeable & landing bottom 2 early in the series only to then go on & make the final.
Can definitely see fiveleaves trading angle in taking on the front 2 or 3 in the market & seeking value elsewhere – notice there has been good money for Gareth Thomas. It would appear Mr Five Leaves has the ability to move markets!
Good luck all 🙂
To my cost, I often do over-focus on likeability over technique and I think I should take your point that such an emphasis is more likely to come a cropper on this reality show than nearly any other.
In which case, drifter-in-the-markets Samia looks overpriced, now.
Plus Fiveleaves earlier in this thread did make a fair point about Samia being popular and Jennifer Metcalfe being unpopular. Plus, Samia has the butter-wouldn’t-melt halo effect shielding and deflecting for her. If (hypothetically) roles were reversed, I think no-one would believe Jennifer protestations of innocence and viewers would be prejudiced against her, and unable to objectively judge her skating.
Hmmm, like Sylvian, I think I fancy a tickle on Samia!
Should have gone with headline: Wham Bam Goodbye Pam 🙁
Looks like they wanted Samia b2 but didn’t work. Pam always going to be vulnerable on pv week 1. If she’d got through, would have bounced & teed up for decent run on show with plenty of scope for improvement. Not to be. And Cheggers ‘journey’ as good as over already. Matt looks like he’ll be hard to beat. Bring on Eurovision 🙂
Quite a shocking result with Pamela leaving. I do feel like I’m getting used to these dancing shows, however, as I calculated Samia and Keith as most likely to be in the bottom 2, with Pamela next most likely. Shayne (as expected) and Samia must have had very good public votes, probably polling 2nd and 3rd behind Matt. It’s a good job there were no betfair markets open as I would have layed Pamela for elimination and backed her for top scorer! I had speculated that they would probably need to put Pamela on last to get her a strong enough pv to get her through because of who she is, but for some reason they didn’t inflate her score high enough for her to be saved. She will have come dead last in the pv to have landed in the skate-off.
Next week looks extremely tricky, with four possible celebrities in strong danger; Anthea, Oona, Joe and Lauren. However, to keep genders balanced they might want rid of Joe, and they already have Keith through as a bit of a joke contestant. I’m not sure I will get involved at all.
Eurovision? Roll on BGT first 😀
Yes, very easy to work out it was 2 out of 3 from Keith, Samia & Pam for b2. Also surprised they didn’t rank Pam higher on leaderboard than Beth to give her more of a safety cushion.
To have invested so much in her & give her the pimp slot, only to lose her week 1, screams of producer negligence. Whereas XF would have shamelessly saved her, DOI has more integrity.
The real incompetence was loading week 1 with such a strong 6. Very bizarre set of circumstances. Shayne doesn’t look like coming up to scratch as a skater. Maybe Gareth will be better next week, but rivals to Matt & Beth look few & far between already.
Interesting week upcoming on DOI, with these duels:
Matt vs Gareth
Beth vs Oona
Samia vs Luke
Anthea vs Shayne
Keith vs Joe
The loser in each duel is then up for potential elimination in the pv; the winner being immune.
Having lost 2 women in the first 2 weeks, reckon they will possibly contrive the 2 or 3 most vulnerable women on the pv to win their duels and thus be immune.
Prediction – Oona, Anthea & Samia to win their duels. Keith should beat Joe; Matt vs Gareth is a tough one to call but hard to see either ending up being eliminated.
If, say, Matt vs Beth vs Luke vs Shayne vs Joe in the pv, reckon Luke & Joe most vulnerable of being eliminated, so look the picks price-wise at 10-1 & 3-1 respectively.
First ESC 2013 post will appear tomorrow following semi-final allocation draw.
Joe – 9-2 with SkyBet for elim looks over-priced.
Thanks Rob, btw what’s the chance the show still would prefer Joe against Keith for comedy reasons?
It’s a good question, Boki. Felt the supposed ‘comedy’ of Joe’s routine last Sunday was somewhat lost. He succeeded in getting a decent pv due to his banter post-skate. Not sure he can pull this off for a 2nd week. If Keith beats him, which on skating ability he should, Joe could well find himself up against it.
Great predictions Rob, I went for Joe and Luke pre-show and added Oona live as a cover. GL
Markets seems to believe Joe is escaping again, I have no clue as usual 🙂
Glad you got the prices, Boki. Like you, also covered on Oona. Joe’s comedy banter may well have allowed him to escape b2. Expecting an Oona vs Luke skate-off and if so, they may well send Luke home.
I also hope Luke goes but first he needs bot2, call me paranoid but just added also Shayne as cover, I’m not really comfortable to call the voting numbers…
Very wise, Boki. Also got a small amount on Shayne for same reason at 14s. Luke could have got a boost from his mauling.
At the end they admitted she would be saved against anyone except Gareth lol. Another break even evening, let’s move on…
TPTB on DOI look like bungling amateurs in manipulating things compared to Syco. Left ‘big signing’ Pam vulnerable for elim. Tonight, could have lost arguably 2nd best skater in competition, Gareth – falls can easily occur in the skate-off. Luke would have been gone if it was him vs Oona, & they gave Joe a chance for an escape route.
Any early thoughts on DOI next elim Rob? I struggle to see anyone but Keith going…
Just catching up with the odds now, Boki… have to conclude they would probably like Joe’s comedy around for a while longer, & more witty post-skate banter should see him avoid b2. So would agree Keith looks vulnerable & given 3 women eliminated so far, a male elim is due.
There’s no doubt Keith’s skating is pretty good though & the ice panel are fair when it comes to the skate-offs.
So slightly better value might be Anthea at 3-1 with bv. Would consider dutching Keith & Anthea for a potential small profit.
Over on Splash!, Jo Brand has been a bit revealing with some of her comments. Last week she said something along the lines of, “I wanted to give you a 9.0 but I was told not to” and then this week “If I’d have said Linda it would’ve been really boring”.
Eddie The Eagle probably has the show sewn up. I’ll need to rewatch the dives of the top 3 but it’s likely I’ll put a fairly large stake on Eddie this week, as he’s still just about at a price worth backing.
He should win, Tim – only worry is, clearly a lot of technical difficulty involved in these 10 metre dives & he could have an off night.
I agree he should win (if everything goes right technically as Rob points out) and thinking of transfering green from the others to him. My worry is (since the show is new) what’s about his votability comparing to the studs like Jake who will perform reasonably good? Are we going to have pv only in the final?
It could well be pv-only, Boki. Cannot find anything confirmed but usually the way they do things. Would hope, & expect, Eddie The Eagle to get the pimp slot come the final, assuming he gets through the semi-final this Saturday. ITV listings says of Saturday’s show:
This week, the six contestants who made it through the first three heats will go head-to-head in a bid to reach next week’s grand finale.
So presumably 3 will go through to the final. Will they give Eddie & Jake easy h2hs to ensure they make the final, or pit them against each other for drama?
They may well want a woman in the final so maybe it’ll be Linda vs Charlotte? Who knows…?
btw – if you are trading CBB, be careful laying Tricia – potentially a voting plot afoot pushing her to victory. May come to nothing but she is a high risk lay atm.
Thanks for the CBB warning, I’m staying away from that one (except early Rylan bet which already traded out) but the development around Tricia is very interesting (and I can imagine very scary for her layers).
I’ve thought carefully and have decided to lay Tricia in the win market for a fairly small stake. The voting plot might not be real, or it may not succeed and therefore Rylan would win. Also they might not be going for a win, but a back-to-lay. It’s a double eviction tonight and every chance of Tricia departing imo. Tonight’s eviction market is essentially a lottery though, with arguments for them all to survive. If absolutely forced to put money down I’d go for Frankie out first.
Would advise caution, Tim. Has the hallmarks of a genuine voting syndicate. If she escapes the double elim tonight, her odds will plummet in the Outright so might be worth holding off on laying her until after this evening if you think Rylan will still win.
Pretty confident Frankie departs first tonight.
Wise words, if I was the market/voting manipulator I would make sure she escapes tonight in order to create another market panic. Btw at the end I dutched Rylan win (@1.8) with Tricia w/o Rylan market (@3) with a chance of both landing.
Think the head-to-head wording on tv listings is deceptive. Imagine they will all dive, then the usual 50/50 leaderboard/pv calculation – top 2 automatically through to the final, 3rd & 4th then in the ‘Splash Off’ with judges deciding 3rd contestant to go through to the final.
Looks like it will be 4 going through to the Splash final, according to itv press site regarding final:
Vernon Kay and Gabby Logan present the final of Splash! Four finalists, mentored by Olympian Tom Daley, will be attempting to somersault, twist and pike their way to victory. Expect high diving and big drama as we find out who will be Splash! Champion 2013.
I’d heard a rumour it was going to be four, so nice to see it confirmed. Eddie and Anthony will definitely be in the final. With four places available it’s likely they’d want a woman in the mix. Linda scored higher than Charlotte, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll favour her in the semi-final. It wouldn’t surprise me if they want a novelty/comedy contender to go through, so for that reason I would go for Omid over Jake to make the final. However if it’s the best divers they’re going for, Jake will make it instead. Hopefully we’ll have some “To qualify” markets priced up.
BetVictor have ‘to qualify’ prices up. Linda looks the value at 5-4. She put in one of the best dives of the whole series in her heat though Ogogo understandably beat her in the pv, aided by the pimp slot. Think they’ll definitely want a woman in the final & Linda has more diving talent than Charlotte.
Would have Jake as a qualifier too assuming he nails his dive – he looks the only one who can compete with Eddie in terms of degree of difficulty.
Pre-show, if having to predict the 4, based on them producing their best: Eddie, Anthony, Jake, Linda
For Omid to qualify he’ll need to make the top 3 automatic qualifying spots – he’ll require some comedy gold to get a big enough pv, as he’ll be lagging on the leaderboard. He also got the pimp in his heat so doubt he’ll get it again.
Thinking Anthea will be a safe lay for elimination tomorrow. Only three women left so I can see her saved in a skate-off vs Keith, Joe, Luke or Shayne.
Good call Rob for dutching A-K pre-show, I hope Tim wasn’t burned.
Btw Rob, do you have a clue why Canuso is shorter than Linda despite the fact he lost on pv yesterday?
Yes, the dutch proved very wise, Boki, & hope Tim followed suit. It is often the way – we saw another example in Denmark ESC national final last night – the dutch of Emmelie & Mohamed ensured a nice profit, defeating the favourite.
They must think Jake has it in him to produce dives that get closest to Eddie in terms of degree of difficulty, & if Eddie has an off-night while Jake excels… he could get the pv where he hasn’t before.
It is closely tied to performance on the night & while I think Eddie will win, have covered Jake & Linda to ensure an all-green book.
I wasn’t burned too badly from laying Anthea. Lost maybe 17% of my weekly profit, which this week was enormous due to the National Television Awards. What the hell were they playing at though, yet again? They could have got away with cutting Keith loose in the skate-off yet they went for Anthea. It’s not like one of them is a noticeably better skater than the other, imo. Shayne still must be polling well so haven’t lost all hope of him getting third just yet.
I have Eddie to win Splash! and covered Jake as a saver. Had Linda too but traded her out. Was surprised but happy to see Linda beat Jake in the public vote, as my bet was for her to qualify. After Anthony had pulled out, she was pretty much a cert to qualify though. It has been an enjoyable series and very easy for us punters, imo. Won’t be winning any awards but as a piece of Saturday night light entertainment I really like it.
Good to hear you did well on the NTAs, Tim. re. Splash – 5-4 Linda to qualify was a terrific bet, as advised. Agree with you in terms of Sat night entertainment – great fun & the critics were wrong to slaughter it on the back of ep1.
As for DOI, they judge the skate-off fairly which is quite a shock after watching XF for a few months. There may be a slight, who T&D like bias – sensed they weren’t great fans of Anthea.
Guys, I have a question rg. Luke. Last night he was the last one called safe making the impression he just escaped the bottom 2. At least that impression they wanted to make but that usually means he wasn’t near danger. Is there some pattern historically speaking or just random?
I also guess Joe will go the first time he ends in bot2 (based on his skating abilities). The problem for me is to predict when his bot2 will happen, he’ll certainly continue with his funny speeches.
Hi Boki. It’s a very good question. There is some evidence in the past of contestants doing well on the pv called safe last. It happened to Coleen Nolan a few times, Mikey from Boyzone, Johnson Beharry, Denise Welch…
A general rule of contestants polling well left until the end, for extra drama. So maybe Luke is doing well on the pv atm.
With Keith having been b2, he could well get a bounce this Sunday, & a bit of a ramp from panel, & given a vote-winning routine – tends to be the way it goes. His basic skating skills are very solid too which helps him.
Very hard to know when Joe’s vote falls off a cliff, Boki, as you say, but you sense he has it in him to survive a few weeks yet. All of which makes next elim betting very interesting.
Interesting they have this ‘Leveller’ this weekend – which looks to be a test of solo skating skills. Wonder if this is being introduced because of lesser skaters like Shayne doing very well on the pv.
Any idea for tonight Rob? I must admit I’m clueless…
Very tricky tonight, Boki. You usually get a b2 bounce scenario which might well see Keith safe – his basic skating skills are solid so he should do well enough with the solo skate (The Leveller).
Joe has his comedy banter to rely on, which could well see him safe again too. Would be looking outside these 2 for some value but who? Luke’s skating seems to have improved enormously, & he seems quite likeable so not sure he’s the bet either.
Beth’s skating is actually not that good & not convinced she is that well liked. Think Samia is a stronger skater & is growing in likability. Would consider Shayne because his skating looks weak compared to most others but he is getting a strong pv.
Would not be surprised to see a real shock b2 tonight – maybe even Beth vs Gareth. So might aim a few quid in their direction for b2/elim.
Sensed a shock on cards tonight. Took some of big prices Shayne elim but then layed him in skate-off due to Matt exposure, & thought it was a wise move when Matt hit the deck so layed more – ended up v disappointed with the judges in saving Matt. He should have been eliminated based on Shayne skating flawlessly in skate-off & Matt falling. It was the right trading ploy despite giving back a fair whack of my Shayne green.
As for Outright, looks like Matt will not be winning this series. Beth produced unexpected skating improvement tonight, & think they probably want a female (& an Olympian). Gareth & Luke both not out of it & fancy one of these 2 to make final 3.
It was a shocker indeed. Figured Matt must have been bottom of the vote. I wonder why Shayne’s fans deserted him after he showed such a clear improvement? The vote and results are on this show is far too unpredictable, I’ve found, so will have to stay away until only the final few are left. It was naughty of the judges to save Matt in the skate-off after he slipped, but figured they might conjure up some reasons to save him. I think Samia or Beth will end up winning the series now.
Had a good last night with Keith bot2 and Joe gone but I’m still chasing some early losses. What’s next?
Can Keith bounce again? Will he end up in a winning team? Would they save him 4th time against someone? My head hurts…
Good to hear, Boki. Keith certainly looked a good thing for b2. Thought there was a chance Joe would escape again but they did a good job killing his vote in the 2nd slot, squeezed in between Gareth & Matt.
Keith could get enough of a bounce. Seems like they are gunning for Samia all the time. Luke has improved but maybe not enough. There is something about Matt that makes him voter-unfriendly. This series looks like it’s between Beth & Gareth. Expect Beth to win – as think they’d like a female winner – but at the odds atm, Gareth the value.
Backed Luke and Gareth for eviction tonight for a small profit.
Luke settled as a loser at Ladbrokes.
Money returned as void on Gareth with William Hill and Betfair.
£100 down and feel robbed.
Bookmakers discretion they call it.
A quote from betfair forum from someone:
“Ladbrokes settled Luke as a loser, rang them and they are now going to void.”
Thanks for that Anonymous, Ive found the comment on betfair forum,
However, just checked my ladbrokes account and Luke still settled as a loser.
May need to call them tomorrow.
I wished i had backed Gareth with Ladbrokes and Luke at William Hill, Just my luck.
I am sure they will void, AE, if you contact them. Very disappointing way to lose Outright wagers on Gareth.
Just rang ladbrokes regarding eviction bet on Luke.
They say the bet stands and the traders decision is final.
Sound like one rule for one and one rule for the other.
I will win it back on beth in the outright market next week.
🙂
Sorry to hear that AE. It is very inconsistent of them. It is long overdue for bookies to draw up specific wording when withdrawals on these shows happen due to illness, injury or personal reasons – anything outside the usual parameters for elimination/eviction. They really should be voiding in this instance as a gesture of good will.
Totally agree Rob, I had something similar happen a few yrs ago with Vic C, I phoned them and had a little rant so they closed my account. I dont want to rock the boat so gonna let it lie. Fairly confident that Beth will win next week and put me back in the green. Had some nice prices on Anthony Cotton to win comic relief also.
Coral apparently refunding on Gareth Outright & Top Male bets.