Alicja In Wonderland

May 12, 2026 by Rob

Watching last night’s jury rehearsal it became increasingly apparent ESC semi-final 1, 2026 will go down as collectively one of the weakest since this site has been analysing the Contest, going all the way back to 2010.

The dilemma for traders is, trying to figure out who’s scraping through in 8th to 10th, and who is just missing out in 11th to 13th, and it may well end up coming down to ultra-fine margins between Q and NQ.

Belgium, Montenegro and Georgia are all tentative NQ calls in a semi-final in which you can make a qualifying case for all 15 nations. There has been little uplift in any of them in terms of live staging.

Belgium’s Essyla struggles to bring ‘Dancing on the Ice’ to life and its weakness as a song stands out among a lacklustre last five in this semi.

Montenegro has decided upon satanic cult visuals, with Tamara giving off witch-like scowls throughout. This is clearly intended as the dramatic theme of ‘Nova zora’. Worryingly, it’s also the very definition of televote poison.

It’s a shame because the track isn’t half bad. The presence of Serbia and Croatia could give it a boost but probably not enough to make it through.

Georgia is at risk of passing people by. The yellow and black palette, strange graphics, and reference point to Bzibeki’s JESC win all miss the mark.

In the first half, each of the opening four entries have enough quality and USP to be comfortably getting through: Moldova, Sweden, Croatia, Greece. And Israel’s qualification is a no-brainer.

Slot 3 is historically weak and Croatia was a slight doubt arriving here, but Lelek do a fabulous job and there’s an epic, feel-good quality at play that should earn a televote, while their vocal harmonies were on point last night in front of the juries.

And let’s not forget what Tautumeitas achieved last year for Latvia (13th in the grand final, 2nd in semi-final 2). This could be another all-female ensemble to outrun their odds and stake a legitimate top 10 claim on Saturday.

The jury competition is pretty weak in semi one and Portugal could be a beneficiary of the juries semi-final return this year.

Bandidos do Cante are professional enough and ‘Rosa’ is a warm, wholesome three minutes of traditional music with authenticity in spades. It’s just rather dull and from a first half position it’s going to need a big jury boost.

That said, Portugal has a knack for defying the odds and sneaking through, and anything above Evens to qualify represents a smidge of value on the back side.

Estonia’s Vanilla Ninja were an extremely bland winner of Eesti Laul this year, but ‘Too Epic To Be True’ is the exact sort of MOR pop that can do surprisingly well at ESC.

Having struggled with the song’s bridge during her runway moment in early rehearsals, Lenna Kuurmaa negotiated it noticeably better last night in front of the juries, and Estonia has now drifted to a value back price around 3.

Lithuania might be considered artistically worthy among some jury members but it really meanders as a song and while trying to hold your attention Lion Ceccah brings to mind one of those statue impersonators you see outside major European tourist hubs during your summer hols.

He ‘had a mare’ in front of the juries last night, completely losing it towards the song’s climax and literally shouting the lyrics. And there doesn’t seem to be much to inspire televoters here, other than perplexed shrugs all round.

In such a poor semi some points courtesy of the Lithuanian diaspora might be enough for it to get through, but the value resides firmly on the lay side at anything 1.5 or shorter, and the call here is, surprise NQ.

Serbia is hugely aided by being the closer. It’s impactful as a goth metal track, for what it is they’ve done a good job with the live presentation, and there probably is a solid audience for this.

Poland has been significantly elevated here in Vienna by some visually compelling staging and the vocally outstanding Alicja. The penultimate slot and the Polish diaspora can give this the extra push required to get through.

So Estonia and Poland are in, with Lithuania and Portugal just missing out because the last Q spot goes to… pause for dramatic effect… San Marino. Boy George provides a pop icon boost and it offers a refreshing moment of unashamedly breezy pop, handily performed towards the end of the show.

Senhit managed to qualify back in 2021 in 9th, it could earn surprisingly high jury scores among certain nations, and the Boy George fanbase may help get it over the line.

It’s not a semi you can play with huge confidence in terms of the crapshoot for the last few Q spots, and as always it demands a value approach is applied.

So the ten qualifiers, attempting the full Mystic Meg, and predicting their precise finishing order: 1. Greece 2. Finland 3. Moldova 4. Israel 5. Croatia 6. Poland 7. Sweden 8. Serbia 9. San Marino 10. Estonia with Portugal just missing out in 11th.

In terms of the semi win, it could be a close call on the combined jury + televote total between Greece and Finland. Again, purely at the odds, Greece looks the value play at anything around 4 (3-1) in what appears to be a two-horse race.

Israel is expected to be punished by juries to such an extent this will knock it out of the win equation. It may well still finish in the top three behind Greece and Finland due to a sky high televote but the best value top 3 play, looks to be Moldova, now available around 7-4 (2.75).

Best of luck to everyone having a bet tonight and please do let us know your ten Q predictions and semi 1 best bets in the Comments section below.

Don’t forget ESC trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Matt’s thoughts:

Eurovision prediction season is always the same. You spend months analysing artists, songs and historical voting patterns, only to end up changing your mind at the last minute, based on a buffering feed from Vienna… hello Poland.

Let’s start with the certainties:

Finland

Big hook. Big drama. Big fan favourite.

Greece

Charming, memorable, repeatable viewing.

Moldova

Moldova marching serenely towards another top 10 finish.

Israel

Serbia

Distinctive, atmospheric and very Serbian.

Sweden

There are moments when the ghost of Anna Bergendahl appears over the rehearsal footage. But no. It’s Sweden.

Croatia

Strong audience response and well staged.

Now we begin the cull.

Georgia

The jury show vocals were… adventurous.

Belgium

Tuesday night TV audiences need reasons to vote. A hook. A moment. A charismatic performer?

Montenegro

Poor optics. Weak vocal. Scary woman.

So that leaves five songs for the last three slots.

Poland Q

Alicja Szemplińska can sing – and that counts for something. Well staged too.

Lithuania NQ

Cold. Pretentious. Emotionally distant. Some vocal uncertainty. Questionable connection through the camera. I could go on.

Portugal Q

Portugal have a remarkable ability to Portugal their way into finals.

San Marino Q

San Marino continues to operate Eurovision like a tiny rogue state powered entirely by networking and dark arts. And while Boy George is not for everyone, he is exactly the sort of recognisable presence that might make the tiny difference needed to reach Saturday night.

Which means…

Estonia

…falls at the last hurdle.

My Final 10

• Finland
• Greece
• Moldova
• Israel
• Serbia
• Sweden
• Croatia
• Poland
• Portugal
• San Marino

Back Thursday – Good luck with all your positions.