Allez Les Bleus

May 17, 2025 by Rob

‘Final Destination Bloodlines’ was released this week in UK cinemas and the latest instalment of Eurovision could be poised for a similarly gory end for many traders in what feels like a year in which the betting markets could turn out to be significantly wrong.

A curious Winner market has been dominated by two nations which have flown clear of the remainder of the field in assorted fan polls, but both with fundamental issues: Sweden on the jury side of the equation, Austria on the televote.

The vociferous fan fervour expressed on social media has, you sense, started to die down regarding Kaj. It’s firmly set up like a novelty song, it seems to have regressed from the Melodifestivalen stage, and it is entirely feasible this fails to muster even 150pts on the jury side tonight, which tells us it’s an extremely fragile 2.08 favourite.

The positive is, Christer Bjorkman has been kind enough to give his home nation the 23 slot, which looks a potential boost to Sweden’s already perceived big televote, but the jury question remains, and there’s enough competition around this year for Sweden not to dominate on the pv.

Many have stayed convinced Austria is this year’s jury winner but this brand of pop-opera feels highly divisive. JJ certainly wasn’t at his best last night and counting against his perceived impressive falsetto are his weak performance skills and a song that throws in an incongruous techno section to try and compensate for a half-baked track in trying to ratchet up the faux drama.

It’s an acquired taste and everything about it feels inauthentic. The smoke and mirrors applied to ‘Wasted Love’ will likely still see it do well with juries, but a further issue for it is being drawn early in nine and it looks vulnerable of falling down on the televote.

Outside of Sweden and Austria, coming to Basel Netherlands and France both looked under-rated by the Winner market. Netherlands has done a nice staging job with ‘C’est La Vie’ and Claude puts his charismatic stamp on it.

He was ok in front of the juries last night but it always feels like he is vocally stretched in trying to maintain control of what is a difficult song to sing live. Regardless, this should be doing well on both sides of the voting equation.

Israel, by default, shouldn’t be falling below 5th place and could rise, like Yuval’s New Day. It wouldn’t come as a surprise if it wins this year’s televote and it looks the value in that market around 5.9. The juries will hurt it, however, probably to a similar extent as they did last year.

Finland’s Erika Vikman is a fan icon this year and continues to seduce the markets. She absolutely owns the stage but ‘Ich Komme’ is a waifer-thin pop song and this kitsch, cabaret routine looks like jury anathema.

Bjorkman, again, looks guilty of Nordic bias in awarding his Finnish pals effectively a double pimp this year in the 13 slot, and Erika could steal some focus away Claude, but it remains a tawdry spectacle.

Estonia looks even more vulnerable of missing the top 10 tonight. Positioned in the 3 slot this might suggest it didn’t do as well on the televote in semi-final one as many anticipated.

France was the last entry to be revealed this year, and the last entry to be seen in 2nd rehearsal video clip form. It then appeared like Louane was able to draw first following Thursday’s second semi-final, before she pulled out a second half scroll and was duly granted the 24 slot, immediately following Sweden.

Everything has pointed to the EBU trying to give France the best possible chance to win, and there is a subtle break in the show and lead into France this evening.

It helps when you have a music artist of Louane’s calibre, and this was hammered home watching her perform in front of the juries last night. To use a Flat racing analogy, Louane is the Frankel in this year’s field, and it would come as a surprise if she didn’t top the jury vote.

The French staging provides the perfect canvas for her to shine and emotionally connect with the TV audience. On reflection, showing English lyrics behind her would have stolen focus away from what is a compelling performance, the moving message of which is easy to understand and appreciate.

If Austria does under-perform, and with Netherlands perhaps also at risk of missing the top 4, there looks scope for one or two unexpected entries to exceed market expectations this evening.

Despite its early draw in five, Lithuania’s that good in its genre it feels like Katarsis could be performing at their own live gig.

Among all the popcorn acts and cabaret nonsense there is room for something so distinctive, and professionally performed, to stand out as a rare of moment of authentic and pure music quality.

Serious musos should have been rating this highly last night, and then there is a solid diaspora vote, in theory, helping to boost it. It looks over-priced for Top 10 and it’s not impossible that this is one that even ends up a surprise Top 5.

Greece is another entry that has been largely overlooked season-long but Klavdia has an underdog charm working for her in her rimmed spectacles combined with a flawless live vocal.

‘Asteromata’ is a story-telling entry that just could rouse the diaspora and should come under strong consideration for Top 10 and, why not, Top 5 as well.

So in terms of Top Baltic, Lithuania looks a sporting bet to potentially beat Estonia. And in Top Balkan, while Albania has the (in theory) benefit of the pimp slot, value is value and Greece has legitimate prospects of finishing above it.

Switzerland’s Zoe is another solo female very likely at the top of the jury rankings this year. The staging is beautifully done, in the main, though there is a section towards the end that jars and almost breaks the spell. As host nation, there is usually a televote lag and with Louane following her, she is at risk of ending up slightly forgotten. But Switzerland remains a solid looking Top 10 prospect.

Ukraine won’t have done very well with juries but you have to anticipate another strong televote arriving for it this year which should see it once more finish in the Top 10.

Tonight’s live in-running trading looks set to be particularly volatile. With jury points arriving first prices could shift dramatically. What sort of lead does France need to forge over Sweden to have a chance of toppling it? Probably around 120pts.

The UK’s entry this year felt like it had major issues from the get-go in not having a clearly defined genre and not in keeping with a female country pop trio.

The staging comes across like a hammy am-dram production. There should be some jury points for the UK to help it avoid the ignominy of the wooden spoon but another disappointing result lurks on the near horizon, very likely 24th or lower.

It feels like there are a lot of also-rans in this year’s field and what’s left after the perceived five top 10 locks is probably around ten nations scrapping for 6th-10th.

Cases can be made for many and it’s simply wise to play the odds. And if you think Top 10 prices are too short for televote-appealing entries with jury points issues, lay-to-back because the prices should drift in running.

So, France is my idea of this year’s winner, fending off Sweden in second place. Israel feels close to a Top 5 lock but the other places feel much more uncertain, and after throwing the confetti in the air:

1st – France
2nd – Sweden
3rd – Israel
4th – Netherlands
5th – Lithuania
6th-10th in no particular order: Austria, Greece, Ukraine, Switzerland, Finland

Best of luck with all your investments this evening and please do let us know how you see things playing out tonight, and more crucially, the best bets you have identified in the Eurovision market maze.

Matt’s thoughts: A much better Thursday with 80% qualifier accuracy for Rob and I both. We successfully predicted the key outcomes of Ireland, Czechia and Armenia, with only the Serbia raid missing its mark for me, Rob highlighting Australia’s vulnerability and correctly calling Latvia a qualifier, and Denmark surprising us both.

As we head to the Grand Final, a three-horse race has developed – Sweden, Austria and France. While there is a path for Netherlands and perhaps Finland, it’s tricky to see the numbers coalescing correctly for either. Momentum feels like it is with France at this crucial point.

As Rob pointed out, Louane needs a jury head start on Sweden and ideally a lead over Austria. A good audience poll last night backs up my feeling that Austria will score less public vote than France and reduce the Outright conversation to a simple duel between the pv winner and the jury winner.

While there is every chance Sweden wins tonight, its jury shortfall sees it walking a tightrope that both Kaarija and Baby Lasagna failed to navigate. As such, and to keep this as short as possible, I am tipping France to win Eurovision 2024.

My top eight in ascending order: France, Sweden, Austria, Netherlands, Israel, Estonia, Albania, Switzerland.

This leaves two places and the following countries in the mix: Greece, Ukraine, Germany, Finland. To be honest, the points differential will be minor between these, so in the interest of tipping the value – I will land on Germany and Greece for the final two coveted slots.

Thanks for reading and I hope everyone has a profitable night.