Aussie Rules

May 16, 2026 by Rob

It has been a joy to revisit the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna this week, a venue which holds very fond memories from ESC 2015. It’s also been a journey tinged with sadness, and anyone who operates in the TV betting world, and who loves Eurovision, should take a moment to raise a glass to Daniel Gould this evening.

2015 was the year the trading table became established, everything fell right for those in attendance, and opportunities abounded. It was essentially the year ESC trading reached its zenith during what was a golden age, as charted in ‘The Gambler’.

Eleven years on, it’s a much more complicated world now and probably why ESC analysis feels nowhere near as straight forward as it did back then.

Coming to Vienna, my strongest hopes of beating the favourite Finland were Greece (potential televote winner outside of Israel) and Australia (potential jury topper). It felt to me like the Greek dream began to die watching Tuesday night’s semi-final, but Australia shone brightly in a much stronger semi-final two on Thursday night, and still has a legitimate shot at beating the season-long favourite.

That said, things couldn’t have fallen more kindly for Finland, with its four perceived main market rivals in Denmark, Israel, Greece and Australia all ending up in the first eight songs to perform in the grand final.

Denmark, Greece and Australia all drawing first half was a remarkable sequence (roughly a 64-1 shot to happen), and handy for Finland which was always going to get a nice berth in the second half after landing producer’s choice. Twenty years on from Lordi, drawn 17 (the same as Lordi), it’s written in the stars…

With voting commencing at the start of the show things are a little different now, r.o. wise, and let’s not forget Israel, Estonia and Austria filled three of the top four places on the televote last year, drawn in 4, 3 and 9 respectively. A JJ-type televote for Delta G could be enough to see Australia home.

We knew the EBU would seek to bury Israel and Ukraine again, and they find themselves in 3 and 7, with Greece’s Akylas, in between in 6, used in a similar way to Tommy Cash for Estonia last year, in trying to steal some televote attention away from them early in the show.

It probably won’t make much difference. Will we see as big a concerted push by Israel, and Netanyahu making an appearance on Instagram again prior to tonight’s grand final? My suspicion is, it will be business as usual, with KAN only earning a slap on the wrist for its earlier misdemeanour, so you’d have to make Israel a strong favourite to top the televote again, and end up finishing top 5, again, possibly top 3, but not winning.

Finland inevitably strengthened as favourite on the back of the draw but here’s food for thought. Last year, the market convinced itself Sweden was winning as it traded around 1.6 on the morning of the 2025 grand final, drawn in 23. In 2024, it was a similar story with Croatia (also drawn 23). Both lost. The Finnish entry clearly has greater potential jury appeal than those two; it’s strength on the televote, however, is much more in question.

The sense of EBU favouritism towards Finland began when Linda’s request to play the violin live was surprisingly green-lit. YLE has also been doing its level best to generate support for Finland as the anti-Israel candidate, and planting tabloid stories seeking to gain a sympathy vote. It’s almost started to enter Israel territory, in going all-out for the win.

Watching last night’s jury rehearsal it felt like Moldova has the authentic, feel-good joy that could be the much bigger televote pull, whereas the contrived efforts of both France and Finland on either side are possibly slightly hurt.

Giving Denmark opening duties in the grand final suggests Australia won that head-to-head in semi two. The Danish delegation won’t be happy but this shouldn’t stop Denmark making the top 10, with Soren in top form last night.

People saw Monroe perform for France on Thursday night and the scales have finally fallen from people’s eyes, with it now trading at 140. It risks coming across as pompous and overblown, and as the Love Island generation might say, Monroe is in danger of giving viewers ‘the ick’. France could easily miss the top 10.

Can the jury winner tonight end up winning the Contest for a fourth consecutive year? That’s the hope for Australia backers, and why it was put forward on this site two months ago as a great value bet.

Having built up a substantial green on Betfair above 16, it’s really been job done, with ample scope to green up the book, the Australia price hitting 3.8 earlier today. More chips will remain firmly on the Australian square heading into tonight, the last 30 seconds of Delta’s performance total goosebumps.

There is even the possibility she does something similar to Nemo two years ago on the jury side because her star quality shines so brightly throughout ‘Eclipse’. It might need something like that to happen but even if Finland is only, say, 50pts behind, it’s by no means a given Finland beats Australia by that margin on the televote.

You have Israel, along with Moldova and the Balkan big guns, taking a solid chunk of televote between them, and as much as Finland is a fan favourite, that popularity could be diluted by the first time viewer vote tonight.

The top 10 market looks hugely competitive this year. Early short-priced contenders in Sweden and Cyprus have fallen away much to the delight of early layers including me, and other countries have shortened dramatically including Romania and Bulgaria, two trains I managed to catch.

Could four Balkan nations make the top 10, with Croatia also in the hunt? That seems a stretch but the battle for Top Balkan looks in the balance with some clear fragility creeping into long-time, odds-on favourite Greece.

Dara was superb last night for Bulgaria and this might be the one to finish above Greece tonight. Despite Romania looking favoured by the 24 slot, it has gone far too short in the top 5 and top 10 markets now. In terms of the Top 10 market that comment also applies to Italy and Ukraine.

Italy looks a beneficiary of that late draw in 22 but juries may not get on board with this clearly sub-standard effort, and there are many other televote options tonight.

Czechia must have done well with juries to qualify from semi two. It’s often an unexpected jury darling that outruns its odds and manages to make the top 10. Estonia in 2023, Portugal in 2024, Greece last year. Czechia is the one that might squeeze into the top 10 as much as top 15 looks the safer investment.

So:

1. Australia
2. Finland
3. Israel
4th-6th: Bulgaria, Greece, Moldova
7th to 10th: Denmark, Romania, Ukraine, Czechia

The last place market is really only one for sh*ts and giggles. The UK has understandably been backed into favouritism but it might muster just enough televote to avoid the wooden spoon.

Austria may have the pimp but it is lousy and firmly in the running. If there’s a surprise entry that could fall between the cracks it looks to be Belgium, filler early on in the 4 slot, and really anonymous. Lion Ceccah deserves last in my book but you’d have to presume the Lithuanian diaspora will help save his blushes.

Please do let us know your Winner predictions, Top 10s, and all the stand-out bets you see among the plethora of side markets that turn up today and leave us all in a mental frenzy trying to process.

Good luck to everyone who has significant money staked on tonight’s outcome.

Matt’s thoughts:

Occidentali’s Karma?

So, after months of national finals, corrupted spreadsheets and the odd sleepless night, we finally arrive at the Grand Final, just as the wind threatens to change direction. Our fan-fuelled favourites have led the way for what seem like the entirety of the season, despite the myriad concerns of traders and analysts. Now, as another metric – last night’s audience poll – disappoints, are Linda and Pete about to be eclipsed?

1 Australia

Most of us are on at big double figures, but this entry is peaking at exactly the right moment.

Winner’s staging. Genuine star power and a nostalgic Eurovision performance for the ages.

2 Finland

The emotional distance, a lack of connection and a price driven more by fan sentiment than actual logic. While still giving this every chance, the spectre of Occidentali’s Karma is hovering. That said, the EBU are pulling out all the stops.

3 Greece

Still a potential winner. Greece is incorrectly perceived in some quarters as having limited jury appeal. This modern concoction of traditional Greek instrumentation, video game sounds and emotional payoff feels exactly like the kind of thing juries should reward – and the jury tweaks are designed to encourage.

Admittedly, the emotional climax could land harder with slightly sharper staging from Fokas, but 150+ jury points feel entirely possible. The televote is not in doubt.

4 Israel

5 Bulgaria

The best staging of the night. A consummate pop star delivering like an actual pop star. Take note Sweden.

6 Italy

The only thing after Finland in the running order that feels relevant to a TV audience. As Wham! demanded all those years ago – Choose Love.

7. Ukraine

Pleasant, emotional and full of diaspora-rallying elements.

8. Moldova

Every televote point squeezed out with terrifying efficiency. Nothing wasted.

9. France

France may have messed up the staging again, but the jury elements remain, and Monroe feels like a genuine star in waiting.

10. Denmark

This could be Romania, which will do very well with the televote, but Denmark just squeaks home.

Thanks for reading and good luck with your positions.