Bright Future

May 11, 2023 by Rob

This evening’s semi-final 2 has always had a more open feel in terms of who might win it, who might end up in the top 3, and who might grab the last couple of qualification spots.

Austria was an odds-on favourite to win semi 2 heading into the rehearsal period in Liverpool but has since drifted, and is being matched around 2.4 at time of posting.

There has been a general sense of disappointment in the way ‘Who The Hell Is Edgar?” has been staged, but it came alive much more last night with the presence of the live audience.

All the money has been on Australia which has dropped from double figure prices to as low as 3.6 for the semi 2 win. Performed from the pimp slot it will have impact but this is no Manga (semi 2 winner for Turkey from the pimp slot in 2010), and comes across as a gimmicky, cliched rock number.

It shouldn’t be forgotten Australia has often struggled for televote support over the years and has tended to need a big leg up courtesy of the juries who aren’t present here. Misgivings aside, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if it does win semi 2.

Quality-wise, the stand out is Armenia. Brunette’s ‘Future Lover’ is beautifully staged and she is a superb live performer but she has to overcome a terrible draw in slot 2.

Armenian supporters will be hoping for better luck when it comes to the post-semi-final draw – talking of which five slots remain in each half heading into tonight – and then the full grand final running order which should turn up in the early hours of Friday morning.

Another entry that exudes professionalism is Slovenia. It has gone well on the pre-Contest fan polls, should earn a healthy televote this evening, and is definitely in the running for a top 3 finish and possibly even a surprise semi 2 win.

Cyprus now feels out of contention for a top 3 finish. It should be sailing to the final but Andrew Lambrou hasn’t entirely convinced live vocal wise and the staging doesn’t really elevate ‘Break A Broken Heart’.

A potential market springer tonight is likely to be Belgium. To my ears and eyes, it’s a lame, early-90s inspired, sub-M People abomination but the fans love it.

It’s also the first burst of uptempo, crowd-pleasing disco in the first half, and while this one goes big in the hall, my evening will be spent rueing early Belgium investments and what might have been.

Poland’s Blanka has endured the wrath of fans since her controversial national final win. Critics lambasted her live performance that day but the Polish team have done a terrific job with ’Solo’, the vocal is much improved, and unless the spite is diaspora wide Poland should be heading to the grand final.

This is a friendly semi-final for Georgia with televote points likely to come from the likes of Armenia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Greece. Iru is a real talent and deserved a better track but she gets the most out of ‘Echo’ and this comes across as a powerhouse solo performance, with some nice visuals.

Monika Linkyte for Lithuania also produces a highly accomplished live performance of ’Stay’ and from the penultimate slot, plus the Lithuanian diaspora, it is cruising through and might even be one to consider for a surprise top 3 finish this evening.

So there we have it. What we appear to be looking at once more on Betfair is a highly efficient qualification market with only small doubt currently hanging over Georgia, at 1.34, and Poland, at 1.24, among the top 9.

Plea to the EBU – please encourage more ESC nations back into the fold next year because it makes for much more interesting and uncertain semi-finals. And also consider a return to the old 50/50 semi-final format.

The real interest lies in trying to work out the 10th qualifier. The market seems to have it right again as it looks a 4-way battle: Denmark vs Estonia vs Greece vs Albania, with all of San Marino, Romania and Iceland out of contention.

Denmark’s Reiley brings the wafer-thin pop song ‘Breaking My Heart’ and even with the vocoder to help conceal him there’s no escaping his weak live vocal. This would be an undeserving qualifier but given Reiley has 10.8 million TikTok followers it’s hard to entirely dismiss Denmark.

In the lead up to Liverpool, 16-year-old Victor Vernicos produced some lovely live performances of ‘What They Say’ for Greece. It sounded a solid entry in the making and safe qualifying proposition.

Unfortunately, the Greek delegation have hung poor Victor out to dry. Everything is wrong about the stage set up for this – from Victor’s strange Lofty from ‘It Ain’t Half Hot Mum’ safari clobber (©hemsby), to overpowering backdrop images of his visage which look like an X Factor-style assassination attempt of Chris Maloney proportions.

Not only that but they decided it was a wise road to go down to have Victor jig about front and centre while singing what is a sincere ballad that would have been much better served had they gone for a simple, stripped back Tom Dice ‘Me And My Guitar’ style of presentation (Belgium 2010).

Credit should go to Victor as he did much better performing it last night. This is an enormously friendly semi-final for Greece so it might still sneak in, and now looks qualification value at anything 2.7 or bigger.

Alika’s ‘Bridges’ is one of the stronger compositions in this semi and would have been potential jury bait and a comfortable qualifier under the old 50/50 format.

Worryingly for her, she is drawn early in 4 and she could end up forgotten, especially with Belgium immediately following her. That said, they’ve done a really good job with the staging, and Alika’s styling, and she sounded great last night.

Albania is also not without a chance. This is highly competent, it has a nice late running order position, and while to Western eyes it comes across like a strange ritual at a wake, it’s bang in contention.

It’s fine margins again and this may be falling into the same trap of Netherlands on Tuesday night, but Switzerland did qualify so Estonia will take my 10th Q spot, just nudging out Victor for Greece.

If Estonia does qualify, that would see the 10 favs qualifying again, and a clean sweep of 20/20 across the two semi-finals which would be incredibly dull and highlight the issue of televote-only making things too obvious.

Armenia and Slovenia would be confident top 3 calls under the old 50/50 format and if nothing else the win and top 3 markets are going to see some lively action this evening, and justifiably so.

So my 10: Austria, Australia, Cyprus, Armenia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Georgia, Poland, Belgium, Estonia.

Best of luck to all traders tonight. Please do let us know your 10 qualifiers and stand-out bets ahead of this evening’s action.

Matt’s thoughts:

Unlike Tuesday where there were 11 songs competing for the ten golden tickets, tonight we are looking at 13. Eight of these feel pretty rock solid:

Austria is confusing – unable to decide if this is a serious indictment on the music industry or a please-the-people fanbanger. By falling between both stools, it ends up watered down and a vulnerable favourite tonight.

I am not fully sold on Australia either. This electronic infused piece of prog rock is bombastic enough, but the staging ends up as a catalogue of set pieces and loses authenticity. With its questionable televote, Australia also can’t be sure of the gold medal.

Slovenia is way more credible and cohesive. Joker Out have genuine charisma, which with a second half draw on Saturday, could build up a head of steam.

Armenia has to overcome the death slot but Brunette has the best song, a clear staging concept and a number of meme-able hooks aimed for social media. These are the four I expect to make up the top 3 tonight.

The next batch include:

Cyprus – friendly draw and familiar song, Unchallenging as a package, this sails through to Saturday, without being anyone’s favourite.

Lithuania – another that has broad appeal, Monika is a warm, relatable lead and this will fight Poland for the UK’s 12 points.

Poland – long derided by the fan community, this is lightweight but has been staged with a knowing wink and is ready for the weekend.

Belgium – a familiar, nostalgic tread back to the 90s and perfectly in the wheelhouse of the semi-final voting audience.

This leaves five fighting for the last two qualifications places:

Albania – Balkan spirit and family wholesomeness with a clear USP.
Denmark – K-Pop collaborator with few voting allies
Estonia – The classic jury save bemoaning the lack of jurors
Greece – Friendly semi for a votable teen, held back by a messy song and staging
Georgia – Forgetting to take a song to a song contest was an oversight.

I can make cases for all of these, so rather than playing safe, let’s take a value approach. Albania and Greece make up my 10 and if one of these gets across the line, we make a profit.

Good luck with your bets tonight.
Matt