Can Helena Do A Loreen?

Jan 31, 2014 by Rob

Much the same way Doncaster’s Lincoln in March is considered the traditional start of the Flat season, the first busy weekend of Eurovision national qualifier action heralds the commencement of ESC 2014 season. The aim here will be to post a Eurovision article each week leading up to Copenhagen.

Over in Finland it’s the UMK final and it was a surprise to see heat winners Softengine drawn in trap 1 and Hanna Sky in 2. The draw appears to favour second chance qualifier Mikko Pohjola (drawn 6 of 8). It wouldn’t come as a surprise to see Clarissa ft Josh (drawn 7) punished by the juries and this looks more likely to be fought out by Coldplay clone Softengine and Mikko.

Second guessing the Finns’ music taste is a dangerous game, however, proven by last year’s UMK result and the bubblegum pop of Krista Siegfrids chosen over Mikael Saari’s exquisite ‘We Should Be Through’ which would surely have comfortably been in the top 10 in Malmo. The advice here would be to dutch Mikko, available at 5-2 with William Hill, and Softengine, 2-1 with Betsson.

There are 3 songs in contention for the final ticket in France. It wouldn’t surprise to see Twin Twin’s Moustache win the televote but will juries agree? The jury-friendly song here is Joanna’s Ma liberté. There has been a hoo-ha already over ‘Moustache’ sounding remarkably similar in parts to Stromae’s huge summer hit of last year ‘Papaoutai’ which might make TPTB in France reticent about sending it to Copenhagen.

Italy has chosen Emma Marrone with the song La Mia Citta. Initial impression of this song was that it resembles a couple of other songs at the start – Blur’s Song 2 and that first guitar riff is straight from The Cardigans ‘My Favourite Game’. It’s a tune which may come alive more when performed live though Emma might have been better off singing a ballad.

It’s heat 1 of Sweden’s Melodifestivalen 2014. The market thinks Yohio is a shoe-in to go direct to the final, best price 2-5 at time of writing. His vocal is not the strongest but he proved a vote magnet last year, comfortably winning the televote in the MF final. He has re-styled this year – more emo kid than his past incarnation as androgynous anime character – and maybe this has also taken away some of his USP.

Linus Svenning has been the subject of a qualification gamble this week with a song dedicated to his deceased brother, though first rehearsal footage yesterday saw Helena Paparizou backed in again. Linus is hoping to pull on the heartstrings with the presentation of this song. Whether Swedish televoters are as malleable as televoters here in the UK is hard to gauge.

It looks like any 2 from 3 out of Yohio (drawn 1), Linus (3) and Helena (8 of 8). Yohio’s song sounds stronger than last year’s Heartbreak Hotel, but it is maybe too generic to win the whole of MF, and is somewhat reminiscent of Ulrik Munther’s song from last year ‘Tell The World I’m Here’.

Two years ago Loreen had the pimp slot in semi 1 with ‘Euphoria’ and could history be about to repeat itself? The snippet of Helena’s ‘Survivor’ certainly sounds encouraging. It has a punchier chorus than Yohio’s song and she has the stagecraft to really sell it.

There remains a doubt whether Helena – who has ESC pedigree having won the Contest in 2005 representing Greece with ‘My Number One’ – will be embraced by Swedish televoters but she can be backed at 3.1 to qualify in the top 2 with Betsson which looks a price worth investing in. You can get 13-8 with bet365 if Betsson is off your radar.

Helena looks value on the Outright at 11-1 with Betway, or as big as 14-1 at Unibet though given Unibet are a ludicrous firm who will only lay pennies there seems little point flagging up its prices.

If she misses out on the top 2 and ends up having to get through to the final via the second chance heat her odds will very likely drift out. However, this is unlikely to diminish her winning chance. As Robin Stjernberg showed last year, it is possible to win MF via Andra Chansen.

Elisa Lindstrom (4) has excellent ‘public music vote’ form having won Sweden’s Korslaget 2013 but her song sounds very run-of-the-mill schlager. Ellen Benediktson (6) is an excellent singer and has a classy ballad. The worry here is, it could easily get lost on the night.

The one to invest in to go to the Andra Chansen heat is Alvaro Estrella with his very catchy pop tune ‘Bedroom’, available at 4-1 with b365. Alvaro to finish higher than Sylvester Schlegel at 10-13 with b365 also looks a value bet.

In the Outright, Alcazar have come in for strong support. Svenska Spel leads the way with the MF markets and at time of writing it has Alcazar priced at 2.75. Does someone there have the inside track on the song? Only when we get to hear Alcazar’s song ahead of heat 4 will we know more.