Cruel Intentions

Apr 17, 2025 by Rob

The EBU has come up with uncannily similar semi-final treatment to last year when looking at the political televoting behemoths of Ukraine and Israel.

Last year, Ukraine was in semi 1 and given the 5 slot (out of 15). This year, Ukraine is in semi 1 and has been given… the 5 slot (out of 15). Last year, Israel was in semi 2 and given the 14 slot (out of 16). This year, Israel is in semi 2 and has been given… the 14 slot (out of 16).

Ukraine came 2nd in semi 1 last year only beaten 4pts by Croatia drawn 7. Israel won semi 2 beating Netherlands (pimp slot) by 12pts. This year’s Ukraine entry is generally considered weaker than last year’s, and in semi 1 the big two perceived televote magnets are drawn either side of it, Estonia in 4 and Sweden in 6.

In semi 2, Israel is considered similar in quality to last year’s entry, with Finland presenting the obvious main challenger from the pimp slot. Is Erika Vikman this year’s Joost Klein, doomed to second place up against the politically-driven televoting power of Israel in the current climate? Israel is rated a shade of odds-on to win semi 2.

When it came to last year’s grand final Ukraine and Israel both drew ‘producer’s choice’ and unsurprisingly found themselves in the first half, drawn 2 and 6 (which became 5) respectively. It would come as no surprise to see similar treatment dished out to them this year if both nations draw either first half or producer’s choice.

We can probably expect to see Israel in the earlier running order slot compared to Ukraine this year, and that late 2nd half draw in semi 2 is a crucial bargaining chip for the EBU in terms of plausible deniability if and when Kan comes bleating about unfair treatment in the grand final.

Finland’s Erika Vikman has been granted pimp slot favouritism in semi 2, the same as Kaarija for Finland in 2023. This highlights part of the inherent unfairness of 100% televote semi-finals.

If you send attention-seeking, uptempo entries, be they gimmicky, cabaret or full on novelty, fear not. If you’ve been drawn in the second half you can earn the highly prized semi pimp slot that guarantees not only televote success in the semi-final but you will also benefit from all the momentum that generates leading into the grand final.

This risks damaging overall song quality, encouraging nations to send Finland-esque entries that are first and foremost about the visual spectacle. Courtesy of its high production values, UMK has seemingly unlocked the formula for earning pimp slot favouritism in semi-finals.

The flipside of this is, if you send a credible ballad, for example, Montenegro (slot 2 in semi 2) and Slovenia (slot 3 in semi 1) this year, and you draw first half in the semi-final, prepare to be treated poorly. You become the filler placed in-between the attention-seeking entries and find yourself at greater risk of NQ.

It is never the even playing field, allowing every entry to shine, the EBU claims it strives to create and already there are understandable rumblings of discontent among some heads of delegation who would like to see a return to 50/50 semi-finals.

Montenegro is returning to the Contest for the first time since 2022 and at a time when the Balkan nations have been withdrawing from ESC altogether. It hasn’t qualified for the grand final since 2015, and yet this is the treatment meted out.

The message the EBU is sending out here is, forget about sourcing a quality song performed by an accomplished live vocalist. You’re better off copying the UMK template and going for a high impact, fun cabaret act no matter how basic the song, or cheap the spectacle.

With the jury-friendly entries in the semi-finals now at much greater risk of NQ, the EBU is also creating a grand final environment that encourages a clear jury winner to emerge.

It’s no coincidence since the implementation of the 100% televote semi-finals the jury winner has won the Contest in both years with entries that didn’t manage to win their respective semi-finals – Sweden 2nd in semi 1 in 2023, Switzerland 4th in semi 2 last year.

Hand in hand with the switch to 100% televote semi-finals, in recent years there appears to be a trend of the fan hype generated on social media now feeding into the jury scoring. A decade ago, you could confidently take on fan favourites with clear jury issues, and bank on them under-performing in the Contest. It is no longer as clear cut.

How Sweden and Austria ultimately fare this year – both of them the clear fan favourites as highlighted by this eurovisionworld poll – will be an interesting case study in terms of where the Contest currently resides.

Looking at the latest state of play in the semi-finals, the Betfair Exchange has settled on eight entries looking lock-ish to qualify in semi 1 though if anyone saw Kyle Alessandro perform live at the LEP event on Sunday they wouldn’t be piling into Norway at 1.15 to Q. He’s a classic example of an ESC artist reliant on a lot of smoke and mirrors when it comes to Basel staging and vocals.

We know Poland’s Justyna, drawn in 2, is largely reliant on the Polish diaspora coming out to play, which didn’t happen last year. And Cyprus is expected to benefit from being the semi closer and having an anticipated impressive stage show.

Iceland, as a semi opener, will have impact and has a sporting chance to qualify but most intrigue surrounds the middle section of semi 1 and that run from 8 to 11 of Norway, Belgium, Azerbaijan and San Marino.

With Cyprus stealing attention in the pimp this potentially throws shade on Belgium in particular, and there may only be room for two of those four to qualify. Portugal and Croatia have the feel of dead ducks but a case can be made for three entries trading odds against in Azerbaijan, Iceland and Slovenia.

In semi 2 it’s a similar scenario of the Betfair Exchange rating 8 entries as lock-ish to Q. Beyond those eight it’s much more of a puzzle and at this stage there isn’t a single entry that holds complete no-hoper status.

Serbia and Armenia both require diaspora voting helping to get them over the qualifying line, Armenia being an especially weak entry and Serbia partially boosted by its late r.o. slot in 15. Denmark and Ireland’s hopes rely on scraping together enough fan love though both may inadvertently hurt one another.

The solo females of Montenegro and Georgia are going to have to grab attention through sheer force of live excellence and both Nina Zizic and Mariam Shengelia at least have serviceable songs. Latvia has some clear USP working for it, and Tautumeitas emanate palpable charm.

Similar to Norway in semi 1 trading at 1.13, Czechia, with its jarring and superfluous dance break, looks on the short side at 1.16. Greece would be a cert Q under the old 50/50 format but couldn’t be rated a sure thing to qualify in this televote-only era.

Luxembourg feels vulnerable and Laura Thorn would be helped if the live show on the night is kind enough to give her a segment referencing Frances Gall’s victory 60 years ago and her entry being a tribute to that. This could potentially generate some good will votes for her.

Rehearsals will get underway on Saturday May 3 in Basel. With everything behind closed doors it won’t be until the eve of semi-final 1, and the jury performance on the Monday evening of May 12 (the second dress rehearsal of semi-final 1) that the media will be able to view things as seen and heard, crucially, on a TV monitor.

As has been the case in the last couple of years, ESC traders will need to feed off scraps of online and social media intel in trying to work out how things are progressing prior to that.