Epic Sax Mark II
We had a good first week in our ESC 2013 coverage last week advising taking on the favourite in the Danish final with both ‘Teardrops’ and ‘Unbreakable’. These 2 tunes ended up fighting it out for the win, Emmelie De Forest taking victory with ‘Teardrops’ after topping the public vote.
This weekend is a busy one for ESC fans. We have the Iceland final, the Malta final, the 3rd semi-final in Norway, the first heat of ‘A Dal’ in Hungary, and in Sweden the commencement of its search for this year’s national representative in Malmo with semi-final 1 of Melodifestivalen 2013. So that’s at least 3 laptops that will be called into action at EntertainmentOdds HQ!
An earlier than expected post as, regardless of not hearing the song snippets (released on Thursday but which can often prove deceptive anyway), we see a clear value angle here which won’t last long based on song reviews we have read.
Early indications coming from press reports at the MF semi 1 rehearsals on Wednesday are that David Lindgren (drawn 1 of 8), Anna Jarvinen (7) and Michael Feiner & Caisa (8) are the 3 stand-outs in this heat vying for the 2 automatic qualifying spots (3rd and 4th place progressing to the second chance heat).
At the odds, it looks a shrewd qualifying dutch to be backing Anna to qualify at 3-1 and Michael Feiner to qualify at 9-4 with William Hill. You can tell from Ladbrokes vastly different qualifying odds on this semi where these prices are likely to be heading over the next few days, and reviews of the rest of the songs in this semi suggest they don’t have much to beat.
Anna’s song is a tear-jerking ballad which could have the potential to go and do an Anna Bergendahl (MF 2010, ‘This Is My Life’) which won its semi-final in 2010 and went on to win the MF final, before being a shock elimination at the semi-final stage at Eurovision proper. It is worth a reminder of that clever presentation at MF:
Anna has a string section playing behind her in a set that looks like it has the potential to be highly evocative. It’s the only real ballad in this semi with a stripped-down production which could enable it to stand out. YOHIO (drawn 6) is the other song in the mix, a guitar-driven pop/rock song that will vie for the teen vote, but some media commentators were decidedly unimpressed by it.
There is always a risk quieter, more subtle tunes like Anna’s ‘Porslin’ get over-shadowed on the night by crowd-pleasing dance tunes. She might also be worth backing, as a cover and only if the odds are decent, to land a place in the ‘Andra Chansen’ (by finishing 3rd or 4th). We will endeavour to highlight these prices in the Comments section below once they are released on Thursday.
Feiner’s tune has a stand-out sax riff in it already sparking comparisons with ‘Epic Sax Guy’ from Moldova 2010 (which never grows old and is a must-see here). It looks like vying for the upbeat vote with David Lundgren’s ‘Skyline’.
As we highlighted in a recent post found here, there is a pattern at MF for songs either drawn in 1 or in the last 2 slots doing best. Anna and Michael have the prize last 2 slots, which should boost both of their chances, while David Lundgren, who will kick the show off, looks like being hard to shift from the top 2 automatic qualifying spots, his song apparently having echoes of his song from last year ‘Shout It Out’ and Danny Saucedo’s ‘Amazing’, which ended up finishing 2nd behind Loreen’s ‘Euphoria’. But his qualifying odds are too prohibitive for us to recommend getting involved.
Looking ahead, Ulrik Munther has the look of this year’s TCO – he sings ‘Tell The World I’m Here’ from the pimp slot in semi-final 4, and is worth getting on side at 9-2 with Ladbrokes.
If any value pops up in the 3rd semi-final in Norway we will flag it up in the Comments section below, along with any other prices issued on ESC qualifiers this weekend.
Thanks Rob. I’m greatly looking forward to some Epic Sax in Sweden this weekend. Have taken your tips of backing those two, and I’ve already backed David Lindgren to qualify. He’s such a big name that I can’t see him not getting one of the two automatic qualifying spots and I really hope he does, to keep my outright book healthy too. There is a slight danger that YOHIO will get a large teen vote. Rock is very popular in Sweden as well and it was no ‘Mystery’ how Dead By April qualified for the MF final last year. Interested to see some ‘Another Chance’ odds and to listen to some song clips when they emerge.
Will need eyes in the back of our heads to follow all the action this weekend. I’m going to have MF on my iPad with Splash! final on the TV on mute in the background.
Certainly is going to be a busy Saturday night, Tim – who needs a social life? 🙂
Unibet have Andra Chansen odds of Evens Anna. It appears more vulnerable of missing top 2 than Michael Feiner & Caisa. If she’s not in the top 2, would expect, from the pimp slot, for Michael Feiner & Caisa to be in the top 2, which would make Anna look something of a lock for Andra Chansen.
Norway semi 3 odds available at Unibet, Bettson & NordicBet. Pimp slot got through in previous 2 semis & while not a fan of it, Sirkus Eliasson looks very likely qualifier (1.32 with NB).
Gothminster probably a better value option at 1.45 to qualify with NB.
Although struggling with a flu last couple of days, my thoughts:
Snippets could be deceptive but you get the picture, I don’t trust reviews since they are much more biased (just like ‘rehearsal exit poll’). Based on what I’ve seen value lies with Yohio now, he’s the most likely 2nd Q spot beside David to me. Anna might pass as well but these type of entries usually end in 2nd chance (and than storm to the final when people accept them fully). She might be even 1st in the heat if there is a significant vote split between David and Michael but I doubt that because Michael looks very poor to me. Actually not him but that lead singer Caisa, she’s an epic miscast and I can’t see them in top2 spots.
Certainly Caisa & Anna need to get the make-up artists to work their magic for Sat night – which is more than likely to happen. Agree Boki that Anna may well be overlooked. YOHIO undoubtedly the other one in the mix, & the value as of now.
Think it’ll be David + 1, but the other 3 all have legitimate claims for 2nd automatic qualifying spot if they can bring it on Sat night. The rest seem very ordinary. It’s an unimpressive heat.
Make-up artists they will get but I’m afraid Caisa needs some kind of charisma wizard to do some magic 🙂
It is interesting to look back on the 1-minute snippet of Loreen from last year’s 1st MF semi-final. Hard to imagine how transformed the full presentation looked & sounded on the night:
http://youtu.be/Msbz8XBPxGg
bet365 have a raft of MF semi 1 markets including h2h markets – well done bet365!
Unibet has also expanded its MF semi 1 markets.
Adelen ‘Bombo’ evens to qualify from semi 3 in Norway with Bettson looks fair value. Poor draw in 2 but a catchy tune, a little reminiscent of ‘La, la love’:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfiS9U4780U
Anina’s The Young probably vying for same sort of voter as Adelen over in Norway semi 3. Has a better draw in 5 & possibly worth an investment at 19-10 to qualify with Bettson:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkyB-ob3-Qw
There has been a big bookmaker over-reaction due to the audience poll in Sweden, semi 1 of MF. Poll of 1,070:
YOHIO – 38%
Lundgren – 32%
Feiner & Caisa -6%
Anna – 1%
These sort of polls have proved way off in the past & dangerous to read too much into it. Mohamed won audience poll comfortably at last week’s Danish final. What comes across live in the studio is vastly different to how they appear & sound on screen – Mohamed’s vocal, for instance, was very poor.
So, juast going on basics of reality tv betting, Feiner looks way over-priced now at 9-2. Anna certainly looking more of a second chance candidate – for which she is 5-4 with bet365.
Hi Rob, much better indicator is Aftonbladet online poll (not perfect of course but much more serious comparing to audience poll). It is based on snippets and amount of voters is still low but here it is:
Vilka låtar tycker du ska gå direkt till final?
Skyline – David Lindgren 28.89%
Burning flags – Cookies N Beans 6.87%
Paris – Jay-Jay Johanson 2.63%
Gosa – Mary N’diaye 3.43%
Vi kommer aldrig att förlora – Eric Gadd 6.26%
Heartbreak hotel – Yohio 35.15%
Porslin – Anna Järvinen 11.92%
We´re still kids – Michael Feiner & Caisa 4.85%
Totalt antal röster: 495
Thanks Boki. it is pointing to YOHIO but maybe he has the most motivated fans to be bothering to register their vote. Still think any poll based on snippets of songs is potentially as misleading as an audience poll.
Certainly on the snippet of YOHIO’s song, I wouldn’t be backing it at 2-5 & would happily lay it on BF if there was a market (esp after managing some 7-2 with WH after it drifted). Found it hugely underwhelming.
If you played this market well, you’ll have:
3-1 – Anna, 7-2 – YOHIO, 9-2 Michael Feiner. And at those prices you are looking good for a small, guaranteed profit.
I would be a different story if we all would have a liquid bf market 🙁
Anyway, Aftonbladet tend to be more accurate close to the semi show, when more people sign in and songs are heard in full. At this moment Yohio increased the lead and Anna is steady 3rd with 14%. She still looks the value for AC @evens.
or maybe not… damn…
The YOHIO hype is real, and the results of the poll last night were enough to convince me to back at 3.0 with William Hill. Not saying he definitely will qualify but it’s looking very much that way. I had to ‘correct’ myself on previous bets made so it was pretty costly. Also had a poke at YOHIO 41.0 in the outright market. For tonight’s semi my book is a bit of a mess. I’ll either win fairly big or make a tiny profit – need Anna in Andre Chanson really. The full songs are supposedly out very soon.
Very surprised both Anna & Michael Feiner missed out on top 4. Eric Gadd & Cookies & Beans are desperate stuff. Obviously Sweden does not like epic sax 🙂
Well done both Boki & Tim for highlighting the chance of YOHIO. Was not convinced by polls & ‘Heartbreak Hotel’ didn’t impress me at all.
Seems like this may be the running order in Norway?
01: Paid My Way – Vidar Busk
02: Ulvetuva – Fjellfolk
03: Bombo – Adelén
04: Alone – Gromth
05: Awake – Gaute Ormåsen
06: Sweet & Heavy – Lucky Lips
07: Underground – Datarock
08: I’m With You – Annsofi
09: Feed You My Love – Margaret Berger
10: I Love You Te Quiero – Sirkus Eliassen
Margaret Berger clearly in prime position to win from there. But could Annsofi score an upset with a slot far more advantageous than the semi final? Adelén has been buried with a poor slot but won the semi from slot 2 last time. Gromth similarly buried, but won their semi so have to be in contention? Sirkus Eliassen probably not a threat as didn’t win Semi 3 from the pimp slot, and just seems to be positioned to be a fun uptempo tune to close the show. Hopefully we’ll get some odds soon.
Thanks Tim – you are correct. Just reading the story on eurovision.tv
Certainly looks good for Margaret, & not unexpected they’ve given her a late slot. As you say, Sirkus no threat & simply an uptempo show closer.
Bettson:
Margaret Berger – EVS
Sirkus Eliassen – 4/1
Adelen – 4/1
Gromth feat. Emil Solli-Tangen – 6/1
Datarock – 9/1
Annsofi – 11/1
Gaute Ormåsen – 14/1
Fjellfolk – 14/1
Vidar Busk – 24/1
Lucky Lips – 29/1
Adelen available at 5.0 with William Hill for anyone wish to have a saver on their stake with Margaret. Annsofi at 17.0 is also probably too large given that they might big up Alexander Rybak during the final? Song may also appeal to juries but will televoters go for this song? It only managed 3rd in the semi, and as far as I know hasn’t had the same success on Norwegian iTunes as Margaret (1st) and Adelen (2nd).
Thanks for posting, Tim. Will write a preview later in the week on Norwegian final along with coverage of Finland final, and MF semi 2.
Anything can happen in Norway so I’m probably skipping it. Last year Plumbo looked certain at evens and ended up 4th while Tooji won despite being the only act not winning his heat.
Margaret favorite this year but I’m far from convinced. Adelen rubbish just as Habba Habba but that didn’t stop Stella. Sirkus looks to be popular amoung youth. Could they all do a vote split (like last year) and make place for someone else (read Gromth)? Also the amount of votes is in decline each year, so people are loosing interest which is again good for Gromth with metal fans.
2012 Tooji 137K
2011 Stella 248K
2010 Didrik 440K
Interesting stuff, Boki, regarding dwindling pv figures. Was not a fan of ‘Haba, haba’ or ‘La, la love’ at last year’s final. Thought they were both extremely average pop songs. Strangely, I would qualify Adelen’s ‘Bombo’ as an all-together far superior effort. Incredibly infectious but the big worry has to be Adelen’s vocal. She is only 16 so it may have been partly nerves but we see time & again at ESC how tough it is for artists to sing these sort of dance tunes well live while dancing around the stage.
Looks like it’ll be cheap & catchy vs classy ethno rock ballad over in Greece. Koza Mostra or Aggeliki – Koza probably fav due to immediacy/novelty value so Unibet odds probably about right (Koza 2.5; Aggeliki 2.65):
http://youtu.be/3X5VpFPv3JM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FPvX5GXF8z4