esctips podcast: 2nd half, semi 1
Thanks to Andy @scandieandy and Gav @ESCtips_Gavster at esctips.com for inviting me on to their podcast to share early thoughts on the 2nd half of ESC 2015 semi-final 1. You can listen to it here.
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Great stuff Rob, well worth a listen.
Rob, it seems like there is a bot trading on behalf of someone in various Eurovision markets. I’ve been laying Moldova and Switzerland to qualify, quite large amounts, yet as soon as I did, bigger amounts instantly appeared looking to back even more. Do you have much knowledge of these?
Hi Tim. Funnily enough, I’ve been noticing it a lot too. So much so I rang Betfair about it last week.
In the semi-final ‘To Qualify’ markets I’ve noticed time and again, when I’ve gone to lay a nation at the biggest price, looking to entice backers, amounts automatically appear at an even bigger price on the ‘Back’ side – essentially leapfrogging over the price I was willing to lay.
It is infuriating especially as it’s usually a small amount. But if you then match that amount, again a bigger price is automatically triggered.
BF’s response was, they have no control over the automated programmes people use on these markets & there is nothing they can do about it.
It seems some traders are using these bots across the ESC markets and my view is, they are killing liquidity because the wise layer doesn’t want to be forced into offering backers an even bigger price due to these bots so will give up laying it. This is certainly my attitude to it – I refuse to be forced into offering a bigger price. Very annoying!
01. RUSSIA: I’m afraid it’s going to happen, another “honest” peace-ballad
02. ESTONIA: Lovely song, pretty staged, but not a winner
03. GEORGIA: Ruslana-esque powersong, great G:Son-remix
04. BELGIUM: Big potential, if videoclip can be brought alive on stage
05. ROMANIA: Unique band, nice running order, artistically relevant
06. DENMARK: Underestimated, will qualify, charming little band
07. NETHERLANDS: “Irritating”, effective melody, wunderful staging plan
08. F.Y.R.o.MACEDONIA: Lovely quality entry from Macedonia, finally
09. GREECE: Russian-esque Disney-ballad, though less memorable
10. BELARUS: Catchy enough, OK staging potential with “Vanessa Mae”
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These countries miss out:
11. ALBANIA: FYRoM and Romania are more memorable
12. FINLAND: Novelty only works if amount of “sound” is memorable
13. ARMENIA: Ralph Siegel goes Eastern Europe
14. HUNGARY: Nice build-up in an obnoxious peace song
15. SERBIA: Pity for her, as she is a good singer. Obnoxious song
16. MOLDOVA: Compared to Belarus this is worse
By the way, I think Austria this year are the “Common Linnets” of this year. Undeservedly underestimated by today’s Eurovision polls and betting odds. This performance gives you goosebumps:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-93NUU9MUY
Paul McCartney meets Billy Joel. Charming singer, great 70’s vibe, slightly unexperienced, though breathtaking voice. I expect another TOP 5 finish for Austria again.