Flank The Eesti Laul Value
The ESC qualifier action comes thick and fast at this time of the year, and there are plenty of Malmo pointers in the next few days.
It’s the Irish national final tomorrow night and one thing we have learned following ESC heats is how difficult it can be to reproduce a glossy, studio-produced dance track on live tv. They can easily end up a howling mess which is why 6-4 Ryan Dolan to win Eurosong 2013 looks very skinny.
Within the confines of The Late Late Show studio you have to question how his vocal holds up singing the house tune ‘Only Love Survives’. He will likely do well on the televote but may not prove as popular with juries if he is at all off-key.
Zoe Bohorquez and Kasey offer up similar pop/dance tunes which could eat into Ryan’s vote though the telegenic Dolan should beat these two ladies on the televote. Some rehearsal footage to emerge suggests Zoe at least has a good voice on her but we can’t see her or Kasey being popular enough overall.
The 2 that have the potential to beat Ryan are Aimee Margeurite Fitzpatrick and Inchequin. Aimee’s ‘Crashing down’ is a classy ballad, she is an able performer and this could easily top the jury voting if Aimee produces the goods live.
Inchequin’s folksy ‘Son kez’ could really come to life performed live, has a feel-good vibe about it and could also do surprisingly well. It is interesting to see this song winning wiwibloggs poll comfortably at time of writing with 49% ahead of Ryan with 21%, found here. So at current prices, the advice would be to dutch Aimee, at a widely-available 2-1, with Inchequin at 9-1 with William Hill.
In Sweden it is semi-final 4 of MF and early reports suggest Army Of Lovers song is a disappointment while Ralf Gillenhammar’s is a gem. Having previously advised Ulrik Munther to win MF 2013 at 9-2 it is encouraging to read reviewers being positive about his song.
Looking ahead to the final, it is probably worth picking off some of the big prices currently available on one or two of the ‘2nd chance’ acts as MF seems wide open this year. Caroline af Ugglas, in 2009, ended up 2nd in the final after qualifying via the 2nd chance heat. Voting this year seems to be all over the place – possibly because voting figures are low – so a shock could be on the cards.
Value, value, value. A byword here so speculative wagers on Caroline af Ugglas at 66-1 with Ladbrokes and Anton Ewald at 35-1 certainly look worth chancing.
On Saturday, we recommend finding time to tune in to Eesti Laul semi-final 2. Estonia offers up some superb tunes every year, and this semi is possibly stronger than last week’s.
Flank‘s ‘Missing Light’ looks worth an investment to win this semi at 8-1 with NordicBet, and has to rank a value qualifying punt at 1.85. It will be performed in the 8 slot (out of 10) which has to be a plus and it is simply a top notch pop/rock, radio-friendly tune, and they are a young, telegenic band.
The favourite to win this semi is the lamentable ‘Dance’ sung by Rasmus Randvee & Facelift Deer, which sounds like a blatant Arctic Monkeys/White Stripes rip off. We can only assume these young chancers have a big following in Estonia. Tenfold Rabbit’s tune isn’t a patch on last year’s ‘Oblivion’ but is also rated something of a shoe-in to qualify, as is Pohja-Tallinn’s ‘Meil on aega veel’, which has the pimp slot.
It is surprising to see Liisi Koikson ja Sooromoo’s ‘Ule fee’ (1st to perform on the night) trading at 1.5 to qualify. It is a rather forgettable tune and Birgit Oigemeel’s ‘Et uus saaks alguse’, which follows it, sounds a much stronger solo female ballad to us. So 2.4 ‘Ule fee‘ not to qualify might also be worth considering.
Any further betting developments surrounding these upcoming ESC heats will be posted below. Please do join the debate.
Another perplexing MF semi-final. Without reading the reviewers’ comments, not impressed at all by the 1-minute snippet of Ralf’s song.
Ulrik’s song sounds like a potential stand-out though he sounds off-key towards the end & struggling to hit the required notes.
Thought Army Of Lovers sounded reasonable & looked interesting – if Banan can qualify with his unadulterated rubbish, they are maybe not a forlorn hope to be in the top 2.
The 3 songs that follow them seem very forgettable. Behrang Miri must have a solid top 4 chance despite being a poor man’s ‘Bombo’.
Teresa Fredenwall’s song sounds good but sandwiched between BM & UM she may suffer. 4-1 for Teresa to make 2nd chance heat looks fair value.
I’m not 100% sure that ‘Ule vee’ won’t qualify. It has a certain charm about it and seems fancied by some as it is one of the favourites to win the semi. It won’t be sailing through and could be borderline, so there is definitely value in it not to qualify. I much favour the chances of ‘Et uus saaks alguse’ which follows it. It’s much more contemporary, will surely be rewarded by the juries and has racked up a lot more hits on youtube. I seem to only be allowed very tiny stakes with NordicBet, am I alone in this? I did only sign up today.
All the value seems to have been eroded in Sweden, so I’m going to wait until the polls and articles come out before deciding whether or not to put some more trades on. I’ll be watching MF in a Swedish pub in London tomorrow night so perhaps I can do some qualitative research 😀
The YT views can be only explanation for generous price offered on Flank, & why Ule vee is so short.
6, 8 & 10 have the look of bankers, & 3 highly likely given Tenfold Rabbit’s popularity. But can make a case for 1, 2, 4, 7 & even 9, so could be tough for 1 & 2 both to make it, & both could easily miss out.
Not surprised by that news, Tim – nice for a bookie to offer prices on Estonia, shame they rarely accept a decent bet.
r.o. for tonight’s ireland final btw:
1. Son kez – Inchequin
2. Crashing down – Aimee F
3. Fire – Zoe B
4. Only love survives – Ryan D
5. Kiss me there – Kasey
Running order for Ireland is interesting. They don’t seem to want to bury Ryan. In fact, I think he will probably win from there. 2 for Aimee isn’t encouraging. I guess there is a little danger of the last three uptempo entries cancelling each other out. It would be a grave error for Ireland to send Kasey’s godawful ‘Kiss Me There’ to Malmo. Hopefully the luck of the Irish will be with us tonight!
I’m skipping Ireland – Inchequin sounds too amateuristic to me (also not sure if Turkish background is going to help them), Aimee boring and Ryan could really have live singing issue. So nothing stands out to me and I shouldn’t commit in that case.
There was a decent betting angle with this Irish heat, Boki, when prices 1st issued – the bookies generally had Zoe & Casey as the 2 favs, which meant you could back the other 3 at best prices for a surefire profit, if only small, if any of other 3 win.
Still think Zoe & Casey least likely to win tonight.
Wow, didn’t know that, it’s too late now for me but thanks for the info, it’s always nice to hear that bookies were wrong again 🙂
Didn’t play anything on MF this week, had big liabilities already on Urlik from the 1st odds and that landed (luckily).
To recapitulate this year: I suck.
Last year I managed to wipe out all heat winnings with bad moves on 2nd chance markets. This year I managed more than that in heat 3 already (got Caroline landed but Amanda disaster cost me a lot) so with Urlik ended up break even.
Next week might be tricky again, 2nd chance prediction could be tough and my involment might depend on a consensus if we can reach any…
Running order for 2nd chance heat next week:
1. You – Robin Stjernberg
2. Vi kommer aldrig att förlora – Eric Gadd
3. Hon har inte – Caroline af Ugglas
4. Jalla Dansa Sawa – Behrang Miri
5. Hello Goodbye – Erik Segerstedt & Tone Damli
6. Begging – Anton Ewald
7. Burning Flags – Cookies N Beans
8. In And Out Of Love – Martin Rolinski
Having invested in Anton Ewald & Caroline af U at big odds, hoping very much they can somehow both get through but might be tough.
Ulrik seems to be looking good for Outright win after fine performance tonight.
Over in Estonia, NordicBet must have an insider who had heard rehearsals as Flank looked far too big a price to qualify but, as it turned out, the lead singer’s live vocal was very poor, & this cost them dear.
Strangely, Flank did still manage to land in the jury top 5, & would have expected them to be in public top 5 too, but clearly voters were unimpressed by his vocal.
Tonight also confirmed my taste is totally out of sync with Swedish MF voters – absolutely loved Army Of Lovers performance & the tune. Great fun. How that is not embraced by viewers yet Banan’s sub-Agadoo number was an automatic qualifier. Army Of Lovers not in the first 4 – scandalous!!!
Rg OR, after seeing Ulrik’s song I’m underwhelmed by it and would say that Yohio more likely to win (especially as it seems that Ulrik didn’t win his heat). Said that, Ralf was very convincing and might take many rock votes and he and Yohio might struggle with the juries against the TCO. So again everything can happen imo.
Rg 2nd chance, so they changed the format, there will be a voting round and top4 will go further into duels (1st vs 4th, 2nd vs 3rd). This could be a nightmare, there was a similar concept some years ago for the heats also, Caroline af Ugglas actually got the most votes in her heat and was paired with 4th placed and lost (and went into 2nd chance). Running order seems pretty random too. Will have to wait and see what the bookies are thinking and try to spot a value.
Thanks for that info, Boki. Having watched back the 4th MF heat, I was very impressed by both Ulrik & Ralf. For me, these are comfortably the 2 strongest songs we have heard throughout the entire competition.
I am happy to lay Yohio on BF at anything around Evens. That is a crazy price, & regardless of his (in theory) big public-vote pulling power, I struggle to see him winning. Would be hugely surprised if juries rate his song highly.
Current iTunes:
1. Begging – Anton Ewald
2. Copacabanana – Sean Banan
3. Heartbreak Hotel – YOHIO
4. Tell the World I’m Here – Ulrik Munther
5. You – Robin Stjernberg
..
10. Bed On Fire – Ralf Gyllenhammar
I was very impressed by Ulrik as well. Think he’ll be first with the juries but may possibly miss out on the public vote to YOHIO. It’s difficult to tell where he will be placed with the juries, but I would say around 4th. In ESC, we have seen that juries can be just like televoters sometimes and it’s possible they may be drawn into the hype. So if Ulrik is 2nd on the televote, and 1st on the jury vote, he would take it in that situation. I watched it in a packed Swedish pub last night, there were huge cheers when Ulrik was revealed to be in the top 5 and then when he got through. When Terese got through to the top 5 it was a very unpopular result. Ralf got one or two WTFs when he was through to the five, then when he was through properly there was no reaction at all. Happy to have Ulrik, YOHIO, David and Anton as greens for the outright. Don’t think I’ll be adding Ralf. Boki, what makes you think Ulrik came 2nd in the heat? I assumed results were announced in no particular order?
For second chance, I would’ve thought Robin had a good shot at going through but the running order has probably killed his chances. If forced to choose two now I would say Martin and Anton. When the latter shot to the top of the iTunes chart I turned him green straight away – you just never know. I don’t rate Caroline af Ugglas’s song. I think it’s far inferior to her song that did well in 2009 and now she doesn’t have a great running order either.
Haven’t caught up on Estonia yet but there were some daft choices there.
Not sure about 4th heat winner Tim of course, just based it on Aftonbladet poll:
Ralf Gyllenhammar 34.95%
Army of Lovers 21.42%
Ulrik Munther 17.59%
Robin Stjernberg 9.58%
Sylvia Vrethammar 8.49%
Behrang Miri 3.32%
Terese Fredenwall 2.79%
Lucia Piñera 1.86%
Eesti Laul final r.o. announced:
First “With U” / Rolf Roosalu
Second “Over the Water” / Lease Koikson and Söörömöö
3rd “Dance” / Rasmus Rändvee Deer & Facelift
4th “Enough” / Elina Born
5th “We still have time ‘/ Northern Tallinn
6th “Can not say no” / Kõrsikud
7th “That could be the beginning of a new” / Birgit Mind
8th “Ring The Alarm” / track / Tuuli / ULA & DrumAttack
9th “Meiecundimees Korsakov was one of the last bar” / Winny the Pooh
10th “Save the souls of the young ‘/ Grete Paia
For those interested, Urlik is on the drift with Ralf 2nd favorite now and Yohio shortened @Uni.
First odds for 2nd chance @Uni, I’m surprised that Ewald is so low (5th favorite @4, while 7.4! @Svenska Spel). Unfortunately I agree with their top3 (Martin, Caroline, Robin).
Based on the iTunes (currently 2nd) Ewald should be the value but somehow I didn’t believe in him from the start and that didn’t change.
I’ve gone for Caroline af Ugglas and Robin Stjenberg to qualify. Think these two will stand out as quality when paired against any rivals – hopefully not each other! There will probably be a split vote with the three uptempo male acts so that’s why I particularly fancy Caroline to qualify.
Reckon I know who wins in Estonia, so if anyone finds a market I’ll be grateful if you could post it here.
MF odds have been rather baffling this year & continue to cause bemusement. Yohio now trading at 1.55 on Unibet; 1.1 on NordicBet – huh?
They must have taken a lot on YOHIO so are probably trying to get people to bet on other acts. I saw a video of Heartbreak Hotel that had over 300,000 views but was taken down this morning. There’s no doubting his popularity. For me the question mark right now is with Ralf’s odds. I could be wrong but I really don’t see his song winning the competition. It seems a bit of an acquired taste – the screams and how the first chorus doesn’t kick in until 1.20-ish. His staging is also a bit Kitty Brucknell doing ‘Live And Let Die’. However as a big backer of both Ulrik and YOHIO, I can’t increase my exposure by laying him. NordicBet is one joke of a bookmaker. Tried to back Ralf at 6.0 but they would only allow €2.