Game Changer

Apr 30, 2019 by Rob

A quick post to outline the site’s coverage of ESC 2019 rehearsals in Tel Aviv, a fortnight which is guaranteed to transform the betting markets.

A provisional rehearsal schedule finally emerged yesterday, courtesy of escxtra, with rehearsals getting underway a day earlier than has been the case in the last few years on Saturday, and the first Wednesday (May 8) set aside as a rest day.

Fellow trader Matt Rickard will be joining me in the press centre in Tel Aviv, casting an eye over those all-important first rehearsals, with the 35 semi-finalists going through their paces in the first 4 days.

A crucial moment will arrive next Tuesday when Russia and The Netherlands will be seen for the first time, currently the two market leaders. The Big 5 and hosts Israel will enter the fray on Friday May 10.

We intend on offering something a little different this year with more focus on the Betfair markets, reporting some of the price moves, post-rehearsal.

ESC is a unique entity as a tv betting event offering countless trading opportunities across many diverse markets. Over the two weeks, the aim will be to try and guide you on both the Back and Lay side of the Betfair trading equation.

It will be 10am starts in Tel Aviv through until the culmination of 2nd rehearsals on Sunday May 12, bar day 2 which will get underway at 10.40am due to Ukraine’s withdrawal. This will of course mean 8am starts for UK followers, 9am if you are on Central European Time.

For those of us at the coal-face in Tel Aviv it’s going to be an exhausting second week with jury performances, the big 3 tv shows and the semi-final qualifier press conferences keeping us busy until well past midnight local time, not to mention the traditional, early hours vigil on the Friday morning, waiting for the grand final running order to drop.

Be sure to follow us on Twitter – Rob (@ferrisdayoff), Matt (@mat_rickard) – as we will keep you updated with all the key information emanating live from the press centre throughout the rehearsal fortnight.

Provisional rehearsal schedule (Tel Aviv time):

Saturday May 4

10:00-10:30 Cyprus, First Rehearsal
10:40-11:10 Montenegro, First Rehearsal
11:20-11:50 Finland, First Rehearsal
12:00-12:30 Poland, First Rehearsal
Lunch Break — 12:30 to 13:30
13:40-14:10 Slovenia, First Rehearsal
14:20-14:50 Czech Republic, First Rehearsal
15:00-15:30 Hungary, First Rehearsal
Break — 15:30 to 15:50
16:00-16:30 Belarus, First Rehearsal
16:40-17:10 Serbia, First Rehearsal

Sunday May 5

10:40-11:10 Belgium, First Rehearsal
11:20-11:50 Georgia, First Rehearsal
12:00-12:30 Australia, First Rehearsal
Lunch Break — 12:30 to 13:30
13:40-14:10 Iceland, First Rehearsal
14:20-14:50 Estonia, First Rehearsal
15:00-15:30 Portugal, First Rehearsal
Break — 15:30 to 15:50
16:00-16:30 Greece, First Rehearsal
16:40-17:10 San Marino, First Rehearsal

Monday May 6

10:00-10:30 Armenia, First Rehearsal
10:40-11:10 Ireland, First Rehearsal
11:20-11:50 Moldova, First Rehearsal
12:00-12:30 Switzerland, First Rehearsal
Lunch Break — 12:30 to 13:30
13:40-14:10 Latvia, First Rehearsal
14:20-14:50 Romania, First Rehearsal
15:00-15:30 Denmark, First Rehearsal
Break — 15:30 to 15:50
16:00-16:30 Sweden, First Rehearsal
16:40-17:10 Austria, First Rehearsal

Tuesday May 7

10:00-10:30 Croatia, First Rehearsal
10:40-11:10 Malta, First Rehearsal
11:20-11:50 Lithuania, First Rehearsal
12:00-12:30 Russia, First Rehearsal
12:40-13:10 Albania, First Rehearsal
Lunch Break — 13:10 to 14:10
14:20-14:50 Norway, First Rehearsal
15:00-15:30 The Netherlands, First Rehearsal
16:00-16:30 North Macedonia, First Rehearsal
16:40-17:10 Azerbaijan, First Rehearsal

Wednesday May 8 — Memorial Day

Thursday May 9

10:00-10:20 Cyprus, Second Rehearsal
10:25-10:45 Montenegro, Second Rehearsal
10:50-11:10 Finland, Second Rehearsal
11:15-11:35 Poland, Second Rehearsal
11:40-12:00 Slovenia, Second Rehearsal
Lunch Break — 12:00 to 13:00
13:05-13:25 Czech Republic, Second Rehearsal
13:30-13:50 Hungary, Second Rehearsal
13:55-14:15 Belarus, Second Rehearsal
14:20-14:40 Serbia, Second Rehearsal
14:45-15:05 Belgium, Second Rehearsal
Break — 15:05 to 15:25
15:30-15:50 Georgia, Second Rehearsal
15:55-16:15 Australia, Second Rehearsal
16:20-16:40 Iceland, Second Rehearsal
16:45-17:05 Estonia, Second Rehearsal
17:10-17:30 Portugal, Second Rehearsal

Friday May 10

10:00-10:20 Greece, Second Rehearsal
10:25-10:45 San Marino, Second Rehearsal
10:50-11:10 Armenia, Second Rehearsal
11:15-11:35 Ireland, Second Rehearsal
11:40-12:00 Moldova, Second Rehearsal
Lunch Break — 12:00 to 13:00
13:05-13:25 Switzerland, Second Rehearsal
13:30-13:50 Latvia, Second Rehearsal
13:55-14:15 Romania, Second Rehearsal
14:20-14:40 Denmark, Second Rehearsal
14:45-15:05 Sweden, Second Rehearsal
15:10-15:30 Austria, Second Rehearsal
Break — 15:30 to 16:10
16:20-16:50 Israel, First Rehearsal
17:00-17:30 France, First Rehearsal
17:40-18:10 Spain, First Rehearsal
18:20-18:50 Italy, First Rehearsal
19:00-19:30 United Kingdom, First Rehearsal
19:40-20:10 Germany, First Rehearsal

Saturday May 11

10:00-10:20 Croatia, Second Rehearsal
10:25-10:45 Malta, Second Rehearsal
10:50-11:10 Lithuania, Second Rehearsal
11:15-11:35 Russia, Second Rehearsal
11:40-12:00 Albania, Second Rehearsal
Lunch Break — 12:00 to 13:00
13:05-13:25 Norway, Second Rehearsal
13:30-13:50 The Netherlands, Second Rehearsal
13:55-14:15 North Macedonia, Second Rehearsal
14:20-14:40 Azerbaijan, Second Rehearsal

Sunday May 12

10:00-10:20 Israel, Second Rehearsal
10:25-10:45 France, Second Rehearsal
10:50-11:10 Spain, Second Rehearsal
11:15-11:35 Italy, Second Rehearsal
11:40-12:00 United Kingdom, Second Rehearsal
12:05-12:25 Germany, Second Rehearsal
19:00-22:30 Opening Ceremony, Habima Square

Monday May 13

16:00-17:40 Semi Final 1, Dress Rehearsal 1 (including Israel, France & Spain)
19:20-19:40 EBU & KAN Press Conference
19:40-20:50 Junior Eurovision Press Conference
21:00-21:45 Pre-Show
22:00-00:10 Semi Final 1, Dress Rehearsal 2 (including Israel, France & Spain) — Jury Final

Tuesday May 14

16:00-18:10 Semi Final 1, Dress Rehearsal 3 (including Israel, France & Spain) — Family Show
21:00-21:45 Pre-Show
22:00-00:10 Semi Final 1, Live Show
00:30-01:10 10 Finalists Press Conference + Grand Final draw

Wednesday May 15

16:00-17:40 Semi Final 2, Dress Rehearsal 1 (including Germany, Italy & United Kingdom)
19:20-19:40 Show Hosts Press Conference
21:00-21:45 Pre-Show
22:00-00:10 Semi Final 2, Dress Rehearsal 2 (including Germany, Italy & United Kingdom) — Jury Final

Thursday May 16

16:00-18:10 Semi Final 2, Dress Rehearsal 3 (including Germany, Italy & United Kingdom) — Family Show
21:00-21:45 Pre-Show
22:00-00:10 Semi Final 2, Live Show
00:30-01:10 10 Finalists Press Conference + Grand Final draw

Friday May 17

11:30-13:00 Opening Grand Final Rehearsal – All Finalists
14:00-17:00 Grand Final, Dress Rehearsal 1
21:00-21:45 Pre-Show
22:00-01:30 Grand Final, Dress Rehearsal 2 — Jury Final

Saturday May 18

14:30-18:00 Grand Final, Dress Rehearsal 3 — Family Show
21:00-21:45 Pre-Show
22:00-01:30 Grand Final, Live Show
02:00-02:40 Winner Press Conference

5 Comments

Stuart

April 30, 2019

Looking forward to your opinions over the coming two weeks Rob. A quick question, I haven’t done much on backing and laying before. If for example I have placed £300 on a country to be top 10 at 2.0 and once rehearsals start I change my mind and don’t think that will happen, if I decide to lay at say 1.00 do I automatically get some money back as in effect I am cancelling the previously bet out? Or if its 3.00 to lay, how would that affect what I need to put down to get a profitable result?

- Rob
  
  April 30, 2019
  
  Hi Stuart. If you have backed a country at 2 to be Top 10, ideally you want that country to trade below 2 during rehearsals if you end up having cold feet on its top 10 chance and want to start laying. If it trades at bigger odds than 2 then you will be losing money by laying, but managing losses (as painful as it can be) is an important aspect of trading sometimes.
  
  In ‘Settings’ on the top 10 market, you want the Profit & Loss box ticked as that will show you precisely your position on the country in question – green figure being your current potential profit, red figure being your current potential loss. If you placed £300 at 2, you stand to make a profit of £300 if it is top 10 (minus BF’s commission), but you stand to lose £300 currently if it doesn’t end up top 10. If, say, the price moves to 1.5 during rehearsals, you could lay £300 at 1.5 and reduce your potential profit by £150 and you would encounter zero loss if the country doesn’t finish top 10.
  
  But if the price moves to, say, 2.5, if you layed £300 at 2.5, you would face a potential loss of £150 if the country does finish in the top 10, and you would earn zero profit if it finishes outside the top 10.
  
  You need to click on the best price currently available in the pink Lay box, and test out various sums to see how this effects your overall position on said country – you will see the green figure and red figure change accordingly. Hope this helps.
  
Stuart

April 30, 2019

Thanks for clarifying the bet/lay scenario Rob. It’s a fascinating topic. Based on the above example, if say I layed the country to finish top 10 for £1000 at 2.5 and it finished outside the top ten, then I would be back into profit territory?

- Rob
  
  April 30, 2019
  
  If you are starting from that £300 Back position at 2, if you layed £1,000 at 2.5, your potential loss on that trade would be £1500 if it finishes top 10, minus your current profit of £300, which would equate to -£1200 overall. But if it finished outside the top 10, you would make a profit of £700 – the £1,000 you layed minus the £300 you backed.
  
Stuart

April 30, 2019

I appreciate your clarification on the backing/laying game Rob and think I’ve got the gist of it now. Here’s to a busy and hopefully profitable fortnight!