It’s A Hot Potato, Kaj

Mar 27, 2025 by Rob

It was at this time last year Croatia was residing around 4.2 favourite. Ultimately, Baby Lasagna came second beaten by Switzerland’s Nemo by 44pts, ‘The Code’ jettisoned to victory courtesy of a remarkable jury points haul of 365pts. Few saw that coming and it’s a reminder there will be surprises in Basel.

Despite the jury topper winning the Contest in the last two years it is always the perceived televote titans that get the Winner market most excited on the Betfair Exchange, this year seeing plunges on all of Estonia (hitting a low of 7.4), Belgium (6), Finland (6), Israel (5.8) and Sweden (2.72) mainly for this reason.

Sweden currently resides as 3.4 joint-favourite. You don’t need to be delving into Spotify viral charts to appreciate Bara bada bastu’s potential televote appeal. It’s a catchy tune though how well it travels across the entire continent remains questionable.

More importantly, it won’t have things all its own way on the televote with the likes of Finland, Estonia and Australia also seeking to entertain a Saturday night audience, and Israel and Ukraine muscling in courtesy of politics.

As a sing-a-long sauna song with an onus on humour there have to be significant doubts regarding its jury appeal. Few can surely argue a chorus that goes, ‘We’re gonna have a sauna, sauna, steam up and release all stress today’ is the stuff of Ivor Novello Awards.

Backers may be encouraged by Kaj’s jury achievement in the Melodifestivalen final, getting within 2pts of Mans Zelmerlow. The jury element is more robust across 37 nations competing at ESC 2025, compared to the eight operating in the MF final, and that jury score needs to be viewed within the context of the Swedish final.

A powerful anti-Mans sentiment took hold, and Kaj, performing from the pimp slot, built up a head of steam, sauna steam you might say, coalescing support as the favoured alternative.

Sweden backers cite the nation invariably doing well on the jury side of the equation aided by the fact its entries are always immaculately presented live, carrying the veneer of slickly-staged, commercial-sounding pop hits. 2021 (Tusse – ‘Voices’) is an exception to this general rule and does ‘Bara bada bastu’ fit the template of previous Swedish jury successes?

It is also probably worth asking the question whether the EBU ideally wants a comedy song emanating from serial winning nation Sweden adding to its victory tally when there are much more credible potential winners lurking among this year’s field.

Austria’s market position as joint favourite looks the ultimate act of faith at this point. All we have to go on is the studio version, with all the bells and whistles of the official video applied, and JJ faces a tough assignment getting close to replicating it live.

Not only that but as a pop-opera entry following hot on the heels of Switzerland winning last year, unflattering comparisons with Nemo are inevitably in the ether.

It veers more towards opera, JJ has a vocal which is an acquired taste, and the song itself seems to lose its way after two minutes with a techno beat shoehorned in to fabricate a dramatic climax.

It all comes across as too calculated and inauthentic in trying to showcase the artist’s vocal range. So are we looking at two entries mistakenly afforded front-runner status at this point?

The French price trajectory has been one of the most topsy-turvy during this ESC season. As each potential contender fell by the wayside, France shortened, even reaching a low of 5 prior to Louane premiering the song. During that live performance at the Stade de France, the price went into freefall hitting 44. Within a day or so the penny started to drop that it’s a classy French chanson, and France is back down to 8.

‘Maman’ looks a serious contender for top honours with the juries and that alone would suggest it’s in the mix for the win.

Its televote will be dictated by live staging/performance and grand final running order. Anyone making predictions of points totals at this stage is guessing to a large extent because those key unknown variables can and will significantly alter not just France’s overall points total, but those of its perceived main rivals.

Israel brings a comparable solo female ballad to last year’s effort. Better or worse is a subjective point and counts for very little in this case. The bigger picture is, there is scope for it to achieve a similar televote to 2024 but its jury score could easily be deflated as occurred last year.

The EBU introduced a new code of conduct at the end of last year which specifically prohibits the instrumentalization of the Contest and this is something KAN will undoubtedly try and do in promoting Yuval Raphael and her song.

Last of the big five contenders according to the current Winner market is Netherlands. Claude’s first live outing highlighted his charismatic stage presence and how ‘C’est la vie’ might be staged, with the camera following him throughout the performance and capturing his joyful interaction with a dance troupe.

Lower down the Betfair Exchange ladder there are plenty of interesting dark horses that could outrun their odds. Finland forged an early fan favourite status after being seen live at UMK.

What Finland can do well is wring every last drop out of its entries with high production values and showcase staging. Erika Vikman’s ‘Ich Komme’ is unapologetically kitsch and cabaret in nature; a flashy presentation trying its best to elevate a basic pop song.

Some ESC analysers think the quirky Tommy Cash conveying ‘Espresso Macchiato’ in trademark sardonic style is going to catch fire with casual viewers on a Saturday night. It will have its fans, as will Australia, but all these entries look like they face a gargantuan task in winning over enough jury members.

Many consider this year’s Albania entry to be one of its best ever and it looks sure to be a lively top 10 proposition.

Italy has probably missed out on another high finish had it gone instead with Sanremo winner Olly, or a few others. Lucio Corsi’s entry has potential jury appeal but risks being a little too forgettable in a 26-runner field.

Belgium was, remarkably, matched as low as 6 during the peak of Red Sebastian hype. It now resides at 60 highlighting that it is often a good idea to trade counter to the extreme price shortening, or drifting the Winner market is subject to across the qualifier season.

In terms of USP, the three Ks of Katarsis, Klemen and Klavdia merit discussion. Katarsis’s ‘Tavo akys’ is arguably the strongest alternative rock entry to ever compete in the Contest. Whether it will get the recognition it deserves is the question.

Klemen’s ‘How Much Time Do We Have Left?’ tugs on the heartstrings as an English language ballad and has the potential to resonate, though his upside-down visual motif of an hour glass needs plenty of work for it to land.

Greece’s ‘Asteromata’ is a classy ethno ballad and Klavdia has a potential Nana Mouskouri charm all of her own but this entry requires a much more compelling live presentation compared to the Greek NF.

Many rate Germany this year and it has a certain Clean Bandit feat. quality. The worry is, the live presentation during the German NF left a lot to be desired, in particular, the incongruous moment when Tynna smashes her brother Abor’s cello towards the end.

Czechia had a potentially high quality pop ballad on its hands this year but inexplicably decided to alter it with a crowbarred in dance break which probably just beats Austria for this year’s most jarring and desperate transition within a song.

The UK’s entry, ‘What The Hell Just Happened?’ is in clear danger of anonymity. Remember Monday are lauded for their harmonies but there is very little for the televoter to grab hold of here, and unless the juries are generous it looks like being another poor year for the UK.

Malta is no longer ’serving Kant’ which had been acting as a clever mechanism in keeping it in the headlines this year. There isn’t a clear female equivalent of the word ‘emasculated’ but this is essentially what has happened to Miriana Conte with the deletion of the lyric.

The Russia/Ukraine conflict remains at the top of the news agenda. Ziferblat’s ‘Bird Of Pray’ has a prog rock feel and is a credible entry, frontman Danyil Leshchynskyi bearing an uncanny resemblance to Jay from The Inbetweeners in the still below.

The live performance needs improvement but Ukraine can usually be relied upon to get the most out of the staging. While its televote may not reach the heights of 2024 it’ll still very likely be in the upper echelons.

So is it a done deal and are all of this year’s top 4 lurking among the top five in the betting currently? Something to consider is that in the last four Contests all of the top 4 have been no lower than 5th on the jury side and 6th on the televote side.

What does look a given is a lot of also-rans in this year’s Contest, highlighted by the fact the Winner market is 25-1 bar the top five and only ten nations trade 75 or lower.

That might hint at it being a sub-standard year overall but there still remains scope for some of the perceived top five to underperform and one or two among the bigger-priced entries to surprise. Only Basel will tell us more.