Kiss Of Death

May 15, 2025 by Rob

After 15 years at the Eurovision trading coalface you like to consider yourself a master of your craft. Then Tuesday night happens and you realise how easily it can make a complete chump of you.

We’re still picking up the pieces of our shattered jaws following Portugal being announced as a qualifier, the betting gods well and truly sticking the knife in when it appeared on the split screen alongside Azerbaijan and Slovenia, with Slovenia Q backers already counting their money.

Perhaps we should expect the unexpected again tonight. With the 100% televote system making things feel a little too arbitrary to trade with any great confidence, and no juries in play to apply a level of quality control, this looks a far trickier semi to unravel compared to semi one.

A possible trend coming out of Tuesday night is five English language songs all missing the cut. It used to be a potential disadvantage for entries to be performed in their native language; maybe we are at a point in the evolution of European politics when this is no longer the case.

Seven out of ten for both Matt and I on Tuesday, ‘Must do better’ appearing at the top of the half-term report.

Pre-rehearsals, the jury was out on Go-Jo’s ‘Milkshake Man’. But he has a self-deprecating charm working for him and the staging is enormous fun, especially the moment he emerges from a giant blender in a different outfit, and one of his dance troupe goes through a miraculous age reversal process.

It remains quirky and weird, Australia’s televote has historically been fragile, and it’s by no means a certain qualifier, but if Iceland can Q from the opening slot, Go-Jo’s entertaining shtick should find enough of an audience tonight.

The good news for Oz, in its tenth year competing at ESC, is that it is followed by uninspiring entries from Montenegro and Ireland, but it remains potential lay territory around 1.26.

It feels like Czechia has much bigger issues than Oz partly due to the vibes given off by Adonxs who carries a preening conceit in the way he performs.

The staging of this is simply a fail, with the dance break remaining incongruous, crowbarred in self-indulgently. On the plus side, Czechia arrives immediately after the poor Danish entry, but it still feels extremely vulnerable in this semi.

Denmark and Ireland have been two fan faves this season but both are going to need their fans to come out in force to make the televote top 10. Emmy has 1.2 million TikTok followers but that figure might be largely redundant in terms of actual Ireland voters this evening, though she probably has scope to do quite well on the ROTW vote.

Sissal has never convinced with the one-dimensional, supposed banger ‘Hallucination’ and the Danish need to prepare for a potential fifth straight NQ, and a deserved one after criminally overlooking Adel the Second, which could have had legitimate top 5 prospects in this year’s sub-standard field.

Ireland is far too static for a supposed party song, and much like the fate that awaited poor Laika who was shot into space by the Soviet government, Ireland looks a dead dog tonight.

The quality level on display in this semi has peaks and troughs like a rollercoaster, with Greece and Lithuania at the top of the rise before the steep descent into Malta. It’s a pretty tasteless presentation, many will find it too on the nose, and just look what happened to Belgium on Tuesday.

We know jury-friendly entries like Greece are at greater risk of NQ but when there is such clear quality on display, this is usually enough, as Dons highlighted for Latvia last year, and Klavdia has the most impressive live vocal of any artist competing at ESC 2025.

Katarsis arrive on stage like they are headlining their own gig. The visuals here are a triumph and there should be an audience for such an outstanding alt rock entry.

Israel is obviously sailing through and prepare for Kan to ramp up the propaganda tactics heading into Saturday night’s grand final. To be fair to Yuval Raphael she is good live and ’New Day Will Rise’ has the feel of another potential top 5 finish in the competition for Israel this year.

Luxembourg had an air of vulnerability coming into rehearsals but this is a total staging triumph, charmingly presented and performed. Laura Thorn is full of youthful magnetism and an early shot of Frances Gall tells the audience everything it needs to know about this entry. The feelings of nostalgia this conjures give it the feel of solid qualifier material.

This is a particularly friendly semi for both Armenia and Serbia. Armenia is on early and while they’ve done as much as they can with it visually – aside from Parg being at risk at times of being totally engulfed in stage smoke – it’s just not very good, and sung in English might that be a potential barrier in terms of diaspora appeal?

Serbia has risen in my estimation. This is a classic, competent Balkan ballad, Princ’s live vocal is on point, and in theory it is aided by its late r.o. slot, though there could be some danger of it being partially memory-holed by Finland’s Erika proudly astride her ejaculating mic stand.

The Latvian entry remains a bit of a quandary. Tautumeitas’s harmonies are excellent, and they’ve done a good job with the live presentation. It feels like they have a natural likability working for them, similar to Laura Thorn. Possibly not in Latvia’s favour is Katarsis likely to grab a much bigger slice of the Baltic televoting pie.

Given Portugal’s progress on Tuesday evening, Montenegro and Georgia shouldn’t be dismissed lightly. Nina Zizic carries her Bond theme-esque ballad with aplomb, and Mariam Shengelia performs ‘Freedom’ in such a way that it feels like it could have been plucked straight out of Eurovision 1986. It has a certain timeless appeal a lot of viewers may warm to.

This could be a case of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted but never be afraid to bet on perceived long shots, especially at Eurovision, and of the two, Georgia definitely looks a sporting bet at a double figure price to be a shock qualifier.

It’s an incredibly tight semi-final, and 7th to 13th could be insanely close. My ten qualifiers will be: Israel, Finland, Lithuania, Greece, Luxembourg, Austria, Australia, Serbia, Latvia, Armenia

Yes, that’s right. Both Czechia and Malta shock NQ. You’ve got to stick your neck out in this game, play the odds, and Malta at 1.26 is simply far too short.

As for the semi 2 win, we could be in store for a similar scenario to semi 2 last year with Israel, drawn 14, fending off its biggest televote rival in the pimp slot, namely Finland. Eden Golan beat Joost Klein by 12pts but Vikman’s pv potential could see a slight uplift compared to Klein.

Finland has big impact and it is easy to envisage a flood of money wanting to back it in the Winner market and to finish top 5/10 when it is seen tonight. The UK still holds significant sway over Betfair Exchange prices and Erika is likely to go down a storm.

The market thinks Austria is the only other entry competitive for the win and a top 3 odds-on shot. There could be some value laying it for top 3 around 1.5 or lower, and a surprise top 3 finish could be on the cards for any of Luxembourg, Lithuania and Greece.

Austria has been one of the most keenly-debated entries of the year and tonight it is going to be very interesting to observe how the Betfair Exchange reacts to its first live outing. Is JJ set to sink or swim?

It clearly risks coming across as too manic, overblown and almost verging on parody territory. JJ was also off vocally last night outside of his signature falsetto.

The pretence of Austria is also hammered home by an incredibly visceral performance by Louane which leaps through the TV screen. ‘Maman’ carries all the authenticity and real emotion Austria lacks and is essentially trying to fabricate.

As for the UK, it looks and feels utterly doomed, with its discordant staging elements matching what is a discordant song, as hard as Remember Monday try.

Germany could have been a distinctive, contemporary club sensation but Tynna struggles to carry it live and that feels potentially damaging.

Best of luck with all your investments tonight and as always please do share your thoughts below in the comments section.

Matt’s thoughts: Well, Tuesday’s semi-final didn’t quite go to plan. Despite my concerns over Cyprus and Belgium, I ignored the voices in my head and played it too safe. However, I’m a survivor and we stay aliver.

Watching the dress rehearsal last night, I am confident-ish about seven: Austria, Finland, Israel, Lithuania, Australia, Luxembourg, Malta.

Malta is a messy affair, so I do share Rob’s concerns but ultimately, I think it reaches Saturday. At the other end of the scale, Georgia and Montenegro are out.

This leaves 7 songs and just 3 places. Ireland is poorly staged by a country who fails to understand modern Eurovision. Despite last year’s success, they decided to import a featherlight Scandi pop princess who would struggle to cause a ripple when Aqua were a thing.

Talking of doomed Scandi entries brings us to Denmark, who have effortlessly failed to understand the brief, despite half a decade of not qualifying. The budget for this performance must have been non-existent and is made to look even worse when placed back-to-back with France.

Greece should have enough quality despite the hellscape staging and Armenia is a staging masterpiece, with Parg owning the stage. This pops especially well after Latvia and this is a very friendly semi.

The same goes for Serbia, who have created a dramatic three minutes and made the most out of Princ. So, by a process of elimination, Czechia and Latvia slide out of view. Neither are terrible but Czechia does not have the numbers of others, while Latvia, for me, still feels like a slightly unsettling opening ceremony act at a synchronised swimming gala.

To recap, my final ten Qs are Austria, Finland, Israel, Lithuania, Australia, Malta, Luxembourg, Serbia, Armenia and Greece.

Good luck with all your bets and I’ll be back here on Saturday with my Grand Final thoughts.