Lenna Worth A Tenner
A shorter post this week as Melodifestivalen heat 3 is shaping up to be the weakest so far and confidence cannot be high in predicting any outcome as all these songs elicit mostly indifference in this listener.
Oscar Zia has heart-throb status, which is the biggest thing in his favour, as his song ‘Yes We Can’ would be better titled ‘I Really Would Rather You Didn’t’ as it is the sort of trite boyband fodder that would have shamed Backstreet Boys circa 1998.
The market thinks Sweden’s tweenies are going to vote for this in their droves but even 8-11 with bet365 does not appeal. And nor does the Evens with Unibet that Outrigger go direct to the final. The thinking here is, Sweden’s metal heads will be encouraged to vote this through, but ‘Echo’ is by no means a strong song.
EKO’s song is reminiscent of Depeche Mode but could struggle from trap 2 sandwiched between Outrigger and Oscar Zia. Shirley Clamp may have a better chance of getting into the top 4 with ‘Burning Alive’ which has a feel-good anthemic feel to it.
State Of Drama went direct to the final last year, and offer up a MOR rock-lite tune that could masquerade as a Feeder track from a decade ago. It has legitimate top 4 prospects, but Little Great Things failure to make the top 4 last week dampens enthusiasm.
CajsaStina Akerstrom is aiming to be this week’s Sanna Nielsen/Ellen Benediktson but hers is a rather nondescript folksy ballad that may struggle to resonate with viewers strongly enough.
Ace Wilder has a pop tune that could eat into Oscar Zia’s vote but the snippet doesn’t leap out and could be in danger of being usurped by Dr Alban & Jessica Folcker who perform straight afterwards from the pimp slot.
Their song at least has more of a hook, with a hint of Ace Of Base about it, but the good doctor needs to improve his live rapping skills if it is to stand a chance. Forced at gunpoint to place a bet on this week’s heat – which is what it would require – it would be State of Drama to beat CajsaStina Akerstrom at 1.7 with Betsson.
In the Outright, the market is putting its trust in Alcazar and Anton Ewald producing decent songs in the 4th heat next week. Sanna Nielsen certainly looks an opposable favourite at 10-11. Far better value has to be Ellen Benedikston at 13 with Betway and Unibet. And if you can get on with the two bob merchants, Unibet offer a huge 49 on Helena Paparizou. Given the paucity of opposition so far, that price looks massive regardless of the fact she has to first qualify via the 2nd chance heat.
It’s the Eesti Laul semi-final 1 tonight and it certainly looks the weaker of the 2 Eesti Laul semi-finals this year. William Hill is offering prices and while Lenna‘s song, Supernoova, isn’t a patch on her 2012 effort, ‘Mina jaan’, it does look the most likely winner from the pimp slot and 5-6 makes some appeal.
In Iceland, it’s the national final tomorrow night. The intriguing runner here is Pollaponk which borrows heavily from a number of songs but could well end up Iceland’s representative in Copenhagen.
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Heres my bets for this weeks melodifestivalen heat i think i have some terrific value as every bet i have made has considerably shortened.
Oscar zia direct 2.0
Oscar zia outrigger combo 3.25
Dr alban andra chansen at 6.0 and 5.5 i really like this one as a value bet only 5 acts of the last 18 pimp slots havent made it,i think dr alban brings a fun retro song and the pyros and confetti at the end do a good job of adding to the song.
Ive also got lower stake bets on alban direct@15.0
And ace wilder to finish last 20.0
Sorry just to clear up what i was saying about the pimp slot.
In the last 18 heats pimp slot has only been out of the top four five times,worst result in any of them was 6th place.
It looks like you have an excellent value portfolio there, Geoff. I agree that Dr Alban will be pushing hard for top 4. I think the spanner in the works for him could be Shirley Clamp. Her song sounds decent to me but Dr Alban has the advantage of going last.
Hmmm interesting you think that Rob, i was more worried about cajsa then shirley but the audience poll does seem more in favour of shirley, both performed twice.
Did you stay away from this week in the end then Rob ?
I think it’s a very tricky one to call this week, Geoff. I think your Oscar Zia top 2 is now looking good but after that, it’s hard to predict. I decided to leave this heat alone while focusing on Outright book. I really think Helena is way over-priced, & Ellen B also.
Money landed on Lenna in semi 1. Traffic so close to beating Sandra in semi 2. Very much the hard luck story in Estonia this year. They were close to making the super-final & surely would have done with a later slot:
Semifinal 01:
01. Lenna (10 jury / 1639 – 8 public) – 18 points
02. Tanja (7 jury / 3079 – 10 public) – 17 points
03. SHCBB (8 jury / 2676 – 9 public) – 17 points
04. Kõrsikud (9 jury / 1460 – 7 public) – 16 points
05. Wilhelm (6 jury / 1065 – 6 public) – 12 points
06. NimmerSchmidt (3 jury / 506 – 4 public) – 7 points
07. VÖÖRAD (1 jury / 948 – 5 public) – 6 points
08. The Titles (4 jury / 312 – 2 public) – 6 points
09. State of Zoe (5 jury / 235 – 1 public) – 6 points
10. August Hunt (2 jury / 462 – 3 public) – 5 points
Semifinal 02:
01. Sandra Nurmsalu (8 jury / 2662 – 10 public) – 18 points
02. Traffic (10 jury / 1717 – 8 public) – 18 points
03. Norman Salumäe (9 jury / 958 – 6 public) – 15 points
04. Maiken (6 jury / 1321 – 7 public) – 13 points
05. Brigita Murutar (2 jury / 2159 – 9 public) – 11 points
06. Nion (4 jury / 834 – 5 public) – 9 points
07. MiaMee (7 jury / 397 – 2 public) – 9 points
08. Lauri Pihlap (5 jury / 620 – 3 public) – 8 points
09. Maltised (1 jury / 720 – 4 public) – 5 points
10. Sofia Rubina (3 jury / 379 – 1 public) – 4 points
Final – 1. round:
01. SHCBB (10 jury / 11940 – 10 public) – 20 points
02. Tanja (7 jury / 10580 – 9 public) – 16 points
03. Traffic (8 jury / 5433 – 7 public) – 15 points
04. Lenna (9 jury / 2941 – 5 public) – 14 points
05. Sandra Nurmsalu (2 jury / 10434 – 8 public) – 10 points
06. Norman Salumäe (5 jury / 2347 – 4 public) – 9 points
07. Brigita Murutar (1 jury / 2965 – 6 public) – 7 points
08. Kõrsikud (4 jury / 2256 – 3 public) – 7 points
09. Wilhelm (6 jury / 1525 – 1 public) – 7 points
10. Maiken (3 jury – 1769 – 2 public) – 5 points