Polina Powers ESC 2015 Profits

May 27, 2015 by

Polina Powers ESC 2015 Profits

‘Just when I thought I was out… they pull me back in’. And so it goes with Eurovision. After a few days recovering from an intense 2 weeks in Vienna you find yourself delving into the split results to figure out what exactly went on.

As always there are plenty of surprises. Italy winning the televote by such a margin and yet ending up third after being snubbed by juries isn’t a situation many foresaw.

Sweden topping the jury vote by such a huge margin, almost as dominant as Loreen in 2012, is similarly startling. My thinking this year was, the one thing that might prevent a Sweden win was jurors being punitive in their assessment of ‘Heroes’.

UK jurors ranked Sweden only 6th in semi-final 2. While Malta and Ireland fell by the wayside, that same UK jury ended up ranking Sweden first in the final. A small trend is that juries tend to favour those songs they have previously assessed in the semi-final.

Estonia doing so badly with juries is probably the biggest mystery of the year. ‘Goodbye To Yesterday’ looked a banker top 5 on the jury side of things and yet it landed a miserly 53pts, a lowly 12th among juries. It was the sort of song that looked more likely to end up struggling on the televote from trap 4 and yet it did remarkably well with the folks at home with only 4 nations proving more popular.

Looking at Estonia’s performance in semi-final 1, that juries awarded more points to the likes of Netherlands while Estonia languished in joint 8th with Belarus beggars belief. But it was good to at least see the likes of Latvia, Belgium and Norway rightly acknowledged by juries as outstanding songs, and also to see Israel deservedly finish in the top 10.

The 2 banker semi-final non-qualifiers advised – FYR Macedonia and Iceland – were both well and truly sunk, and as seemed most likely to happen Finland received a massive thumbs-down among juries. Poland suffered at the hands of jurors too but managed 8th place overall in semi-final 2 after, as expected, landing a sizeable televote.

Azerbaijan wasn’t far off a shock semi-final 2 elimination, taking 10th place only 10pts clear of Malta. It would appear a new paradigm is required for a nation that used to consistently vie for top 3 in semis and top 5 in the final.

Serbia’s top 10 finish in the grand final and landing the Top Balkan spoils was a small and somewhat unlucky dent in this year’s profits. It was the right play to take it on at the odds especially after Bojana put in a very poor live effort in front of the juries on the Friday night, and it suffered a massive jury drop as predicted, joint 23rd with the UK.

53pts is usually a total that would see a country down in 15th or lower. That Serbia somehow scrambled 10th is partly an anomaly brought about by the exceptional strength at the top of the leaderboard, and the dramatic fall away after Israel in 9th.

FYR Macedonia and Montenegro both had their jury voting disqualified which resulted in Serbia landing 22 of its points from its televote-only Balkan friends. Whether it might have dropped at least 2pts with a jury vote factored in is a moot point but you would have strongly fancied Albania to top the jury rankings in Montenegro as it did in semi-final 1 in 2014 which would have very likely seen it leapfrog Serbia in the scoring there.

Top Balkan may well be one to duck in future after going big on Greece in 2014 only to see it lose out to Romania. Romania was the value pick this year but under-performed somewhat, juries not rating it as highly as anticipated.

As far as this site goes, 2015 proved a vintage year in terms of betting analysis and predictions. Russia was the last ESC recommendation given to readers for free, flagged up back on March 17 as the outstanding value wager e/w ante-post at 33-1 and Polina performed tremendously, pushing Mans all the way for the win. Russia became the first 300+ point scorer in a grand final not to win.

Nine out of 10 qualifiers were called correctly in both semi-finals and the two biggest qualification lays, Iceland and FYR Macedonia, both landed.

This year, for the first time, an email subscription betting service was offered to readers for the price of £40. It proved a resounding success. A +90 point profit figure was achieved, which surpasses last year’s +84pt return, and represented a ROI of over 36%, extending EntertainmentOdds outstanding record for profitable tv betting analysis since it was founded in August 2009.

Below is the full list of recommendations given to subscribers. Together with the last free recommendation given on Russia, the total ESC 2015 profit comes in at +104.5pts.

Looking ahead to ESC 2016 this site will be dedicated to unearthing the value wagers exclusively for subscribers. Be sure to subscribe next year as the aim will be to turn a substantial profit once more.

Enjoy a relaxing summer. The site will be back in the autumn for the traditional run of Strictly and X Factor.

ESC 2015 betting recommendations:

Free:

Outright: Russia – 2pts e/w, 33-1 (quarter the odds, first 4), Coral = +14.5pts

Subscribed:

Pre-rehearsal value picks

Semi 1 – Romania – 1pt e/w 50-1 – bet365 (40-1 with SportingBet at time of email notification) = -2pts

Georgia – 0.5pt e/w 33-1, William Hill, bet365 = -1pt

Semi 2 – Cyprus – 0.5pts e/w, first 3 places, 33-1 – SportingBet = -1pt

Day 1:

Netherlands – not to qualify – 1.5 – bet365 – 20pt win = +10pts

Greece – to qualify – 1.4 – Bwin – 20pt win = +8pts

Day 2:

Romania – Outright – 0.5pts e/w – 150-1 – Coral (e/w first 4) = -1pt

Romania – to finish top 10 – 5-1 – Paddy Power – 2pt win = -2pts

FYR Macedonia – not to qualify – 5pt win – 11-10 – bet365 = +5.5pts

Russia – to win semi 1 – 9-4 Stan James – 4pt win = +9pts

Day 4:

Iceland not to qualify from semi 2 – 11-4 – 32Red, Unibet, 888sport, 51-20 with Bwin – 4pt win = +11pts

Cyprus to qualify – 1-2 – bet365, 32Red (& partners) & bwin – 20pt win = +10pts

Day 5:

Armenia to qualify – 2-5 Betfred (4-11 with bet365) – 20pt win = +8pts

Macedonia – not to qualify – 11-10 Boyles (Evens with 32Red, Unibet etc) – 5pt win = +5.5pts

Day 6:

Poland to qualify semi 2 – 8-13 William Hill – 13pt win = +8pts

Cyprus to qualify from semi 2 – 4-9 with SportingBet. Also available at 2-5 with Bwin & 32Red & its partner sites (Unibet, 888sport) – 20pt win = +8pts

Day 7:

Cyprus semi 2 – 1pt e/w – 20-1 (first 3 places) – Ladbrokes = -2pts

Cyprus – top 3 finish semi 2 – 9-4 – Betfred – 4pt win = -4pts

Day 8:

Greece – semi 1 – 33-1 – Coral, bet365, Boylesports – 0.5pt e/w = -1pt

Poland – top 3 finish – semi 2 – 20-1 – Betfred – 0.5pt win = -0.5pt

Greece – to finish top 10 in final – 11-4 – Paddy Power – 4pt win = -4pts

Day 9:

FYR Macedonia – not to qualify – 4-6 Betfair Sportsbook (3-5 Boylesports) – 12pt win = +8pts

Estonia – semi 1 – top 3 – 8-13 – Betfred – 13pt win = +8pts

Romania – semi 1 – top 3 – 11-4 – Betfred – 2pt win = -2pts

Russia – top 4 finish in the final – 10-11 – Betfred – 11pt win = +10pts

Day 10:

Top Balkan – Romania – 8-1 – bet365 – 1.5pt win = -1.5pts

Greece – 6-1 – BetVictor, Paddy Power – 1.5pt won = -1.5pts

Slovenia – 3-1 – bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power – 1pt win = -1pt

Belgium – Top 10 finish – 4-7 – widely available – 7pt win = +4pts

Day 11:

Poland – not to qualify – 13-8 – 8pt win (to close position at zero profit) – SkyBet, Betfair Sportsbook = -8pts

Cyprus – not to qualify – 3-1 – 5pt win – Boylesports (to reduce potential profit if it qualifies, or potential loss if it is a shock NQ) = -5pts

Norway – top 3 finish – 8-11 – 32Red – 5.5pt win = -5.5pts

Iceland – not to qualify – 2-1 – Betfair Sportsbook – 4pt win = +8pts

Czech Republic to qualify – 15-8 – Coral – 2pt win = -2pts = -2pts

Day 12:

Belgium – 14-1 – e/w a quarter the odds first 4 places – bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill – 2pts e/w = +5pts

Belgium – 6-4 – top 5 finish – Paddy Power – 4pt win = +6pts

Latvia – top 10 finish – 5-6 – Paddy Power – 6pt win = +5pts

Latvia – top 5 finish – 4-1 – Paddy Power, 32Red – 1pt win = -1pt

Latvia – 40-1 – e/w a quarter, first 4 – bet365, Paddy Power – 0.5pt e/w = -1pt

UK finishing position – 21st-27th – Evens – Coral & Betfred – 5pt win = +5pts

Day 13:

Romania – top 10 – 11-4 – Paddy Power, Boylesports – 2pt win = -2pts

Romania – Top Balkan – 11-2 – Paddy Power – 2pt win = -2pts

Who will UK give 12pts to? Australia – 11-2 – Ladbrokes – 1pt win = -1pt

Subscription bets:

Profit = +90pts – a 249pt investment returning 339pts; an ROI of over 36%

(+14.5pts)

Total ESC 2015 profit = +104.5pts

10 Comments

  1. Montell

    Day 8. Poland – top 3 finish. Why did you thought this was a good bet?

    • Rob

      We have had many surprise top 3-ers in the semis over the years, Montell, 2nd & 3rd looked up for grabs outside Sweden, & given Monika’s back story, pimp slot & potential sympathetic assessment of jurors 20-1 looked too big to miss out on. My approach to trading is founded on ‘value’.

    • Squall

      I also feel Poland top3 was a good bet, and would gladly have bet more on it than I could get on. The power of the pimp slot combined with a USP that was very hard to assess the effectiveness of made the long odds very attractive in such a weak semi imo.

  2. Montell

    Rob, could you explain me what is an each way bet? For instance you took Russia this year (33-1 e/w a quarter the odds first 4). How much money have you risked and how much have you won. How much would you have won is Russia had won Eurovision? Thank you.

    • Rob

      Hi Montell,
      33-1 each-way first 4, a quarter the odds was being offered by a number of UK bookies early on. Coral for one.

      An each-way bet means you are betting both ‘win’ and ‘place’. A £10 each-way bet would cost you £20 because you are betting £10 to win & £10 to place. £20 each-way will cost you £40 – £20 ‘win’ and £20 ‘place.

      So if Russia finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th you collect on the ‘place’ portion of the each-way bet only. In this instance, the ‘place’ return was a quarter the odds, so a quarter of 33 which equals 8.25-1.

      If Russia had won you would collect on the full ‘win’ price of 33-1. Russia came 2nd which meant you lost the ‘win’ portion of the bet, but collected on the ‘place’.

      If it had been a £10 each-way bet on Russia at 33-1 with those place terms, it would mean that for a £20 stake, you ended up collecting £92.50 – £10 ‘place’ at 8.25-1 = £82.50 + your £10 ‘place’ stake = £92.50.

      Another way of looking at it is, having an each-way bet on Russia at 33-1 was far, far better value than backing Sweden for the win at around 2-1 which was more or less the price you were getting in Vienna.

      Not only did it give you the scope of collecting on Russia if it placed in the top 4 – whereas a ‘win’ only bet on Sweden required Sweden to finish 1st only for you to collect – for a £20 stake on Russia (£10 each-way), you collected £92.50, which is a much higher return than 2-1 Sweden.

      Effectively, you were getting better than 7-2 Russia, or 4.5 Russia compared to 2-1 Sweden, or 3 in modern decimal odds. A £20 win bet on Sweden at 2-1 returned a +£40 profit. A £10 each-way bet (same total stake of £20) on Russia returned a +£72.50 profit. And with the possibility of an even bigger profit on Russia had it finished 1st.

      I managed to get about £300 each-way Russia starting at 33-1, then at 25-1, 20-1, 16-1… backing Russia each-way all the way down to about 12-1 each-way.

      The beauty of Betfair, the betting exchange, is that I was also able to also get sizeable amounts down on Russia to finish top 5 and Russia to finish top 4. Effectively, this allows you to bet ‘place’ only which is not possible with UK bookmakers for Eurovision.

      On Betfair I was able to make a four figure profit on Russia backing it for top 4/top 5, & that profit was combined with all the each-way money placed on the high street and with online bookmakers.

      Initially for a top 4 finish on Betfair it was possible to get bigger than 5-2 Russia. And bigger than Evens for a top 5 finish.

      My total liability on Russia across all markets…? I would estimate maybe £2,000. And the profit on that investment…? Probably in the region of +£3,000.

      Hope that clarifies things 🙂

      • Montell

        Thanks for such a detailed explanation. I’m sure I’ll take advantage of these type of bets next year.

        • Rob

          It will always remain my approach to seek out the each-way value. It was the same the year before with Netherlands.

          You also asked how much I would have made had Russia won. Probably another £3,000 or more but having taken the big price odds Russia for the win on BF, when it was offered at 40-1 & bigger, it was more a case of how it helped me build my Outright book.

          I was able to lay Russia much, much shorter and combined with laying Finland in single figures, this allowed me to have four figure profit on all Russia’s main rivals including Sweden obviously. It was a very good year I think for you too. Let’s hope for the same again in 2016 🙂

  3. Rob

    A long overdue, well-researched article revealing the truth about modern bookmaking, and how winning punters are being closed or heavily restricted: http://bit.ly/1DmteQo

  4. Rob

    This is well worth a listen discussing the issue of account closures & restrictions:

    https://soundcloud.com/emmet-kennedy/the-betting-debate-with-neil-channing-tony-calvin

  5. Rob

    It looks like there will be plenty of double eliminations during XF 2015 as there will only be 7 live weekends.

    And no clash with Sports Personality this year which takes place on Sunday 20 December.

    The full schedule for series 12 of The X Factor is presented below:

    AUDITIONS

    SATURDAY, August 29 – 8pm – 9.30pm
    SUNDAY, August 30 – 8pm – 9pm
    SATURDAY, September 5- 8.15pm – 9.30pm
    SUNDAY, September 6- 7.45pm – 9pm
    SATURDAY, September 12 – 8pm – 9.15pm
    SUNDAY, September 13 – 8pm – 9pm
    SATURDAY, September 19 – 8pm – 9.30pm

    BOOTCAMP

    SUNDAY, September 20 (Country House Boot Camp) – 7pm – 9pm
    SUNDAY, September 27 (Country House Boot Camp) – 7pm – 9pm
    SUNDAY, October 4 (6-chair challenge) – 7pm – 9pm
    SUNDAY, October 11 (6-chair challenge)- 7pm – 9pm
    SUNDAY, October 18 (6-chair challenge) – 7pm – 9pm

    JUDGES’ HOUSES

    SATURDAY, October 24 – 7.30pm – 10pm
    SUNDAY, October 25 – 7.30pm – 9pm

    LIVE SHOWS

    SATURDAY, October 31 – 8pm
    SUNDAY, November 1 – 8pm

    SATURDAY, November 7 – 8pm
    SUNDAY, November 8- 8pm

    SATURDAY, November 14 – 8pm
    SUNDAY, November 15 – 8pm

    SATURDAY, November 21 – 8pm
    SUNDAY, November 22 – 8pm

    SATURDAY, November 28 – 8pm
    SUNDAY, November 29 – 8pm

    SATURDAY, December 5 – 8pm
    SUNDAY, December 6 – 8pm

    SATURDAY, December 12 – 8pm
    SUNDAY, December 13 – 8pm

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