Polina To Land Top 4 Spoils

May 23, 2015 by Rob

At last, the big one has arrived. The tv betting highlight of the year – the Eurovision Song Contest 2015. It’s the last day here at the press centre in Vienna which is always tinged with sadness that the ESC circus is coming to an end.

So, who is winning this year and more importantly, where does the betting value lie? It goes without saying Sweden will be very tough to beat tonight but there are enough doubts attached to ‘Heroes’ to raise hopes of an upset.

The stage show will wow televoters tonight but strip away the visuals and you are left with a bog standard pop tune that is probably most outstanding for managing to splice together David Guetta and Avicii and fob it off as something original.

Jurors we know can be just as fickle as televoters but who knows, maybe they have been reading the press about this song and will have been punitive in their assessments last night though the running order in which countries will announce their results might suggest Sweden is looking good for the win with Iceland and Norway announcing late.

If Sweden does fall away on the jury rankings, the one that looks poised to pounce has to be Russia. Polina smashed it out of the ballpark again last night, Russia is a voting powerhouse and if we are about to have a tight year like 2011, it might have enough guaranteed points to edge it.

In the last 2 weeks here Polina has been very well received. There has been no booing, no suggestion whatsoever the EBU doesn’t want Russia to host next year, and in fact the song is almost the perfect anthem for the ‘BuildingBridges’ theme.

Belgium, you sense, has probably done very well on the jury rankings and may have even toppled Russia in semi 1. Its running order slot of 13 allows it (in theory) to steal the limelight away from Sweden and Australia and its success on esctracker suggests Europe could go for it in a big way on the televote.

Italy is very much this year’s unknown. Il Volo performed well last night and it will definitely have impact as a show closer tonight. The big question is, just how well pop opera will travel around Europe but it could go ‘big in the hall’ from the pimp slot potentially helping to boost its televote points haul.

After that quartet, the most solid looking top 10 prospects for me are Estonia, Latvia and Norway. All 3 are classy songs and they were all well performed last night. Estonia being given the 4 slot might suggest it missed out on top 3 in its semi, though the organisers were left with little leeway in the first half of the draw and something had to give.

Estonia is still good enough to achieve a top 4 or top 5 finish even from its early running order position. Elina was on top form again last night and it has really come together well. It is also doing well on esctracker.

Given the possibility of Italy and Australia both underperforming, there could be a chance to grab some top 4/top 5 value on the drifting Estonia.

Debrah, meanwhile, held it together well when it mattered last night for Norway while Aminata again nailed the live vocal in front of the jurors.

If there is one nation this year capable of a surprisingly high finish is has to be Latvia. There are certain parallels with Albania 2012 and you could argue ‘Suus’ was less accessible than the FKA Twigs-sounding, highly contemporary ‘Love Injected’.

Australia shoud be treated with caution given it is such an unknown in Eurovision. Guy tried to showboat with his vocals last night and it slightly backfired in the first minute when he coughed up a couple of notes.

A 6th-10th finish for Australia seems more likely to me though it would come as no surprise to see it fall out of the top 10 completely. My main doubt is how well it fares in those nations knocked out in the semi-finals, and Australia’s status as something of an interloper afforded preferential treatment this year could see its points total come up shorter than expected.

All you can do in this game is assess the variables at play and there are certainly enough potential negatives attached to Australia to see it more likely under-perform on the scoreboard this evening.

If we allow Australia to sneak into the top 10 – probably the ideal result as far as the EBU is concerned – that only leaves 2 remaining slots. Romania looks a very solid top 10 candidate and over-priced at 11-4 given it’s a diaspora-pleasing song which was very well performed, as always, by Voltaj last night, and also has a handy-looking late running order position in 20.

It looks something of a crapshoot after that. Gun to head I would put Georgia in there based on voting power, running order and having an impactful song that is very well staged.

One more likely to miss out on top 10 has to be Serbia. Bojana was far from her best last night and while this is a fan favourite and Serbia is a voting powerhouse you have to think it is a strong candidate for a big ‘jury drop’ in the final.

Hopefully plenty of you invested in Russia e/w first 4 places when it was advised here ante-post at 33-1. It has certainly been a fantastic trade as at time of posting this article it trades on Betfair at a Back price of 5.1. If it achieves a top 4 finish it will very much be job done. If you are risk averse there is a chance to lock in profit by laying Russia for a Top 4 finish around the 1.43 mark currently on Betfair.

Laying Finland heavily on the Outright when it was trading in single figures, and backing Russia as big as 40-1 on Betfair has helped me build a fantastic book on the Outright market this year with all the perceived contenders four figure greens going into this evening. It feels like pressure off after two highly profitable semi-finals.

As for the UK, further ESC ignominy probably lies in wait. From the 5 slot and following the majestic ‘Goodbye To Yesterday’ it is very likely to do awfully, or should that be ‘Waffely’. Seek out best odds on it finishing 21st-27th.

Just for larks, here is my prediction (as much as it pains me to put Sweden 1st) in light of that running order of country announcement for tonight’s top 10:

1. Sweden

2. Russia

3. Belgium

4. Estonia

5. Italy

6. Norway

7. Latvia

8. Romania

9. Georgia

10. Australia

Best of luck with all your trading tonight and please do post your predictions below on who you think is going to win the Grand Final, and who will be Top 10.