Positive Prognosis

May 13, 2025 by Rob

This is when the talking at least partially stops and tonight we will finally discover the first ten countries qualifying for Saturday’s grand final.

After viewing semi one in its entirety last night, at least what you read below, and across the week here, is being written with a degree of authority, having finally had the chance to see and hear things via the only medium that matters: the TV monitor feed.

To try and keep things as concise as possible, Sweden, Netherlands, Estonia, Ukraine and Albania look like five Q locks. Ukraine’s entry has received a chorus of negativity among fans, inevitably, as a prog rock tune not in their wheelhouse. It goes without saying the pv should be comfortably enough for it to qualify at this war-torn time.

There are small doubts regarding both Poland and Cyprus. Theo and his crew’s impressive scaffolding show helps bring ‘Shh’ to life and performed from the pimp slot it should be doing enough to secure a third consecutive qualification for the Island of Love.

Poland finds itself in the dreaded 2 slot, ‘Gaja’ is nothing special but Justyna is a tour de force at the helm of a visual extravaganza. The issue is, her diction is not good and the entire production feels quite tenuous in attempting to give off a dramatic, Daenerys Targaryen, Princess of Dragonstone vibe.

She has a huge profile in her homeland and while the Polish diaspora didn’t show up in big enough numbers for Luna last year, this should spark the required level of support to make the televote top 10. But in terms of qualification odds, Poland and Cyprus should both be under consideration to lay around the 1.2 mark.

The Portugal through to San Marino section has always looked weak. More vulnerable than the market thinks is Norway. A very standard, ESC by numbers pop song, an armour-clad Kyle going through the motions with his dance troupe… It’s all very ‘Meh’ and 1.3 to qualify remains too short, and lay territory, for an entry that looks like flirting with the 9th-12th range. The call here is, shock NQ.

Red Sebastian brings a hardcore rave club to ESC but the red and black palette is quite alienating, and the optics overall are the converse of televote-friendly. It does have impact, however, the fans seem to love it, and it also memory holes Norway.

Kaleen last year only scraped in in 9th place bringing her 90s rave which was arguably more palatable for the masses than this. Belgium’s main salvation is, it’s a low qualification bar in semi 1 and for that reason alone it is awarded Q status, which has sadly scuppered my plan for a ’Sebastian Woe’ headline.

San Marino’s Gabry Ponte is aiming to defy the poor track record of DJ-focused efforts: Poland’s Gromee feat. Lukas Meijer in 2018, Finland’s Darude feat. Sebastian Rejman in 2019, and Austria’s Lumix feat Pia Maria in 2022 to name but three that have all failed to progress in the past.

It’s a one-dimensional refrain and while being the Sanremo interval music may have earned it a soft spot in the hearts and minds of die-hard fans, that won’t help it that much tonight, other than the guaranteed televote 12pts from Italy.

Gabry does have a profile of sorts around Europe and those of my vintage will recall his classic dance hit Blue (Da Ba Dee) with Eiffel 65. This is the definition of a borderline qualifier which should be trading at precisely 2.

Slovenia has passed the fan community by all season and was trading over 3 in the lead up to rehearsals which looked a generous price. This is a powerful moment of heart-felt, simple and effective balladry that should resonate with televoters despite the early r.o. in 3.

The song’s lyrics tell the TV audience the moving story of Klemen’s wife, Mojca Fatur, having a major health scare. There’s a really powerful montage at song start showing Mojca when she was very poorly and it feels like it really connects.

Klemen gives great camera, the lighting is evocative, and Mojca’s appearance at the song’s climax feels like the empathetic pay off of a beautifully staged and well performed song.

Slovenia has landed useful points in the ROTW vote in the last two years and managed to qualify last year with a far inferior effort than this. So Slovenia’s in, with Portugal and Croatia feeling like they are both out of contention and making up the numbers.

Azerbaijan is one of the stronger songs in this semi-final. Trouble is, the lead singer Asaf Mishiyev isn’t the most compelling frontman. His live vocal is just about passable but the staging is a complete let down, and this once proud ESC nation is facing the ignominy of a third straight NQ. Which leaves San Marino and Iceland, in theory, competing for the last qualifier spot.

Iceland is a fun opener, well presented and performed for what it is, but it also feels like the most Junior ESC entry of the year. Its potential demo slants very young, and will enough of them be watching on a Tuesday evening and be motivated to vote for it?

The first five entries in semi one last year all qualified, why not the first six this year? There is nothing to say it cannot happen. It’s fine margins, as always, but the call is, Iceland just missing the cut and Gabry Ponte taken to defy the poor track record of DJ-led numbers.

So my ten Qs: Poland, Slovenia, Estonia, Ukraine, Sweden, Albania, Netherlands, Cyprus, Belgium, San Marino

In terms of the semi win, Sweden is obviously going to be hard to beat. The other two podium spots feel more uncertain. The market likes Albania’s top 3 chances but the staging feels much more ‘miss’ than ‘hit’ and this is going to have to significantly rouse the diaspora for it to land the place money.

Talk of Claude’s demise has been grossly exaggerated. Netherlands is exquisite storytelling with a pure emotional pull. Switzerland also leaps out as a quality entry, well staged and performed towards the end of this evening’s semi.

Melody, by the way, does a fine job fronting ‘Esa Diva’ but this is a thoroughly doomed, kitsch Spanish cabaret act. Italy comes across like filler, and almost as much of a bathroom break as Portugal.

Tommy Cash thinks he’s Eurovision’s answer to Andy Warhol but his entire shtick risks coming across as too self-indulgent, throwaway, and completely lacking in substance, especially following Slovenia. Maybe the casual voters will go for it in a big way on a Saturday night but there have to be significant doubts attached.

It may sound a stretch to most but Slovenia is probably worth an investment for a surprise top 3 finish in this semi-final despite its early running order position.

The big change this year will be the qualifier reveal. Three nations in the spotlight at a time, with one going through.

You have to call out the EBU’s hypocrisy here: it bans the media from viewing rehearsals under the guise of protecting the artists from social media criticism, and has talked big about its new charter having the goal to create a more supportive and less stressful environment for participants. And yet, it is more than happy to put them through the emotional wringer in the name of creating dramatic TV.

Best of luck with all your investments tonight. Please do let us know your ten Qs and best semi 1 bets in the comments section below.

Matt’s thoughts:

Rob has kindly let me help provide ESC coverage for EntertainmentOdds for the last decade and in this time, we have agreed, and we have argued. While the latter probably makes for better content, I think the potential for any fireworks is unlikely tonight.

In fact, we appear to be firmly on the same page. Watching the dress rehearsal last night, it is clear we have eight surefire qualifiers: Sweden, Netherlands, Albania, Estonia, Ukraine, Poland, Belgium and Cyprus.

Cyprus, despite being in the pimp, is the most vulnerable of those eight, but I would be surprised if it misses the cut. This leaves four fighting over the last two spots – Slovenia, Norway, Iceland and San Marino.

Slovenia looks and feels strong, and while the EBU has hampered its chances in the running order, I think it has more than enough of a story to make Saturday.

In staging terms, Iceland is the best of the other three, with its family-friendly, Minecraft-inspired theme. San Marino relies on Gabry Ponte’s star quality and it is way better than the previously-released, 30-second clip. Norway looks and sounds tired, indicative of the post-Stig Karlsen, ever-declining era.

I am going to trust my instincts here and proclaim Slovenia as our ninth qualifier. The last one is a coin flip between Iceland and San Marino. As Rob has already plumped for San Marino, I’ll take the other side of the coin and call Iceland.

Good luck with all your bets and I’ll be back here on Thursday with semi-final 2 thoughts.