Rana To Reign

Dec 11, 2014 by

Rana To Reign

This is very much the road less travelled in terms of tv betting events, but Miss World is taking place on Sunday and there might be some value outside the strong favourite, Miss South Africa, Rolene Strauss, currently a best-priced 9-4.

There was a time when this event was a primetime staple on BBC. Political correctness has forced it into the media wilderness these days, with Sunday’s final at London’s ExCeL arena shown live on the E! Entertainment channel.

A series of Challenge events enable contestants to earn bonus points which propel them towards the Final Round of the competition. Strauss was 3rd in Sports & Fitness, has a place in the Top 20 of Top Model, and is in the Top 10 of Beauty With A Purpose (BWAP).

She is also currently in the Top 10 of People’s Choice – voted for online by Miss World fans. If the winner of this poll is not among the Top 5, she is added as a sixth finalist. Regardless of the People’s Choice result, It looks safe to assume Rolene will be among the Top 5/6 this year.

Rolene is also entered in the delayed Miss Universe 2014, actually taking place in January next year, in Miami. Miss World winners have gone on to compete and place at Miss Universe, though it has to be a moot point whether either organisation ideally wants a winner sullied by not winning the rival beauty pageant.

Recent Miss World history throws up some revealing stats. Last year’s winner, Megan Young, Miss Philippines, won Top Model but did not place in the Top 10 of BWAP. However, 6 of the BWAP Top 10 last year finished in the Top 11 overall, including 2nd placer Miss France and 3rd placer Miss Ghana.

In 2012, 4 of the BWAP Top 10 finished in the Top 7 overall including 2nd placer Miss Wales and 3rd placer Miss Australia. So based on recent stats, it looks a fair bet that at least two of the BWAP top 10 this year will finish in the Top 3 overall.

The videos for this year’s BWAP Top 10 can be viewed online on the Miss World YouTube channel and it would come as no surprise if Miss Guyana, Rafieya Husain, has won BWAP this year as her project is the fight against domestic violence, and on the eve of Miss World 2014, Miss Honduras, Maria Jose Alvarado, was murdered in a domestic violence incident.

Miss Netherlands, Tatjana Maul, has a strong BWAP video too focusing on human trafficking and forced prostitution. This project has been highlighted in media coverage on the Miss World website leading up to this year’s Contest and Tatjana speaks very eloquently.

If there is another Megan Young – i.e., a Top Model winner who isn’t in the BWAP Top 10 and goes on to take the Miss World crown – it is possibly Miss Hungary, Edina Kulcsar, who also aided her Outright chance by finishing 2nd in the Sports & Fitness challenge.

Miss India, Koyal Rana, is in this year’s BWAP Top 10 and also figures among the Top 20 of Top Model, is currently in the People’s Choice Top 10, and also won World Fashion Designer Dress. So she looks to have the most solid solid top 3 credentials overall.

The last time Miss South Africa won was following the resignation of Miss UK in 1974. Netherlands has not won Miss World since 1962, Hungary and Guyana have never won Miss World before, while the last Miss India to win was back in 2000.

This Sunday is also the BBC’s Sports Personality Of The Year 2014. This looks a straight fight between Rory McIlroy, with 2 Major golf titles including a first British Open, and Lewis Hamilton, who won a second F1 World Championship last month.

The timeliness of Hamilton’s win sees him go into Sunday’s SPOTY with all the momentum and there is a solid argument he is still value at 2-1. He has been doing the rounds on TV and radio, and recent polls in a number of national newspapers have him in front of McIlroy.

F1 certainly has a stronger SPOTY record down the years than golf, providing 6 past winners to golf’s 2. The last F1 winner was Damon Hill back in 1996; the last golf winner Nick Faldo in 1989.

You can speculate on petrol heads being more partisan than clubhouse bores, but there has never been a head-to-head of this nature before. It is a difficult one to call which may come down to the edit on the night, and how they come across during interview.

Of more interest is Top 3 betting. There appears to have been a market over-estimation of the strength of the football vote aiding Gareth Bale to a top 3 finish. But it seems unlikely a Real Madrid player is going to get enough widespread support.

Jo Pavey looks to have much stronger Top 3 claims, her track success being the feel-good sports story of the year. 40-year-old Jo, a mother of two, took gold in the 10,000-metres at the European Championship only 10 months after giving birth to her second child. Ten days earlier she took bronze in the 5,000-metres at the Commonwealth Games.

She could well corner the housewives’ vote, and will be a populist choice given the emotive backdrop to her achievements. She is a best-priced 11-8 to finish top 3. It might be wiser to consider backing her to finish 3rd at 13-8 with Ladbrokes and have a cover on her finishing 2nd at 10-1, in case one of the big two flops.

One final festive flutter worth flagging up: Christmas Day TV Ratings: Top Programme Betting. The value here has to be Miranda at 4-1 with BetVictor. A 7.15pm slot for this popular sit-com looks like a potential sweet spot to land most viewers, and there is a lot of heat around Miranda this year given this is the first of a two-parter which will see the show come to an end.

Favourite Mrs Browns Boys is on at 10pm having landed the top rating spoils last year from the earlier 9.30pm slot. 10pm might just prove a little too late, while Downton Abbey faces off against Eastenders for the second year running which should hamper both.

Recommendations:

Miss World 2014 – Miss India – 8-1 – 2pt e/w – Skybet
Miss Hungary – 20-1 – 0.5pt e/w – Skybet
Miss Netherlands – 20-1 – 0.5pt e/w – William Hill
Miss Guyana – 25-1 – 0.5pt e/w – William Hill

SPOTY 2014 – Jo Pavey – to finish 3rd – 13-8 – 4pt win – Ladbrokes

to finish 2nd – 10-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes

Miranda – Top Christmas Day Ratings – 4-1 – 2pt win – BetVictor

7 Comments

  1. Rob

    Top 5 announced for all bar BWAP:

    Miss World Top Model

    CHINA PR – Du Yang

    SOUTH SUDAN – Awien Kuanyin-Agoth

    BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA – Isidora Borovcanin

    HUNGARY – Edina Kulcsár

    AUSTRALIA – Courtney Thorpe

    Beach Fashion

    MEXICO – Daniela Álvarez Reyes

    KENYA – Idah Nguma

    SWEDEN – Olivia Asplund

    SOUTH AFRICA – Rolene Strauss

    INDIA – Koyal Rana

    Multimedia

    NETHERLANDS – Tatjana Maul

    GUYANA – Rafieya Husain

    INDIA – Koyal Rana

    UNITED STATES – Elizabeth Safrit

    ENGLAND – Carina Tyrrell

    Talent
    The Talent winner will be decided on Sunday, after a sing off between the top two choices. MALAYSIA & SCOTLAND will take to the stage to perform their individual pieces infront of the judges, live audience and millions watching at home!

    Sing-Off Top 2: MALAYSIA – Dewi Liana Seriestha – Opera Singing & SCOTLAND – Ellie McKeating – Traditional Gaelic Vocals

    RUSSIA – Anastasia Kostenko – Ballet

    SWEDEN – Olivia Asplund – Ice Skating

    UNITED STATES – Elizabeth Safrit – Ballet en Pointe

    Sports & Fitness

    Announced on the day we already know that FINLAND won the sports, with HUNGARY 2nd and SOUTH AFRICA 3rd. However, we can now announce that SERBIA came 4th and WALES was 5th.

    1st – FINLAND – Krista Haapalainen

    2nd – HUNGARY – Edina Kulcsár

    3rd – SOUTH AFRICA – Rolene Strauss

    4th – SERBIA – Milica Vuklis

    5th – WALES – Alice Ford
    Beauty With A Purpose

    And Finally, Beauty with a Purpose is sticking to a Top 10 for now, with the 10 contenders awaiting the final night to find out who will win the award.

    BOLIVIA – Andrea Forfori Aguilera

    ENGLAND – Carina Tyrrell

    BRAZIL – Julia Gama

    INDIA – Koyal Rana

    GUYANA – Rafieya Husain

    KENYA – Idah Nguma

    INDONESIA – Maria Sastrayu Rahajeng

    PHILIPPINES – Valerie Weigmann

    SOUTH AFRICA – Rolene Strauss

    NETHERLANDS – Tatjana Maul

  2. Rob

    Miss SA wins Miss World 2014

    Hungary 2nd – so close to very tidy win but landed the place money

    USA 3rd

    Australia & England other 2 in top 5. Guyana and India in top 11. Baffled why India didn’t make top 5 after she was in 1st place on the leaderboard heading itno the final round.

  3. Rob

    A nice win on Jo Pavey 🙂

    Voting figures: Hamilton 209,920 McIlroy 123,745, Pavey 99,913

    Conclusive proof – petrol heads are more rabid voters than clubhouse bores.

    Hamilton 209,920
    McIlroy 123,745
    Pavey 99,913
    Dujardin 75,814
    Gallagher/Evans 35,871
    Yarnold 23,188
    Whitlock 17,219
    Bale 13,747
    Froch 11,616
    Peaty 9,899

  4. Henry VIII

    When I used to do Miss World years ago it was a case of laying the fav. Now the fav seems to win. Rob is it all sewn up with the bonus points, or is it dishonest? Seems odd for the fav to win with so many runners.

    (BWAP is an interesting PC concept, suggesting that beauty on its own is somewhat immoral ie it doesn’t bow down to the god of equality.)

  5. Henry VIII

    Yay I managed to post. When I tried to post that days ago it wouldn’t let me. Maybe just a temporary glitch.

    • Rob

      Sorry Henry – problem with posting Comments on the site. Not sure if it is fully resolved yet.

      As for Miss World, I think it’s pretty straight. The value seeker in me thought it worth taking on Miss SA & she didn’t impress me that much. I did read that Julia Morley had a soft spot for her.

      I was very surprised Miss India wasn’t in the top 5. The leaderboard showed Miss India leading up until the top 5 announcement.

      Miss Hungary stumbled over her words a little when asked, ‘Why do you think you should win Miss World?’ and her English wasn’t great. This might have cost her.

      It’s a new tv betting avenue to explore & one I am increasingly keen on as my edge has been eroded somewhat on the mainstream shows. I will give Miss Universe a go in January and maybe post on it here 🙂

  6. Rob

    Mrs BB’s top rated show for 2nd year running. Some bookies paying out on combined Queen’s Speech figure.

    The Queen (BBC One and ITV) – 7.82 million
    Mrs Brown’s Boys Christmas Special (BBC One) – 7.61 million
    EastEnders (BBC One) – 7.55 million
    Strictly Come Dancing Christmas Special (BBC One) – 6.98 million
    Call The Midwife (BBC One) – 6.83 million
    Miranda (BBC One) – 6.67 million
    Coronation Street (ITV) – 6.41 million
    Doctor Who (BBC One) – 6.34 million
    Emmerdale (ITV) – 5.53 million
    Downton Abbey (ITV) – 5.52 million

    Will be totting up all recommendations given since ESC 2014 & working out overall annual profit/loss figure for 2014. Will post in next few days.

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