Rana To Reign

Dec 11, 2014 by Rob

This is very much the road less travelled in terms of tv betting events, but Miss World is taking place on Sunday and there might be some value outside the strong favourite, Miss South Africa, Rolene Strauss, currently a best-priced 9-4.

There was a time when this event was a primetime staple on BBC. Political correctness has forced it into the media wilderness these days, with Sunday’s final at London’s ExCeL arena shown live on the E! Entertainment channel.

A series of Challenge events enable contestants to earn bonus points which propel them towards the Final Round of the competition. Strauss was 3rd in Sports & Fitness, has a place in the Top 20 of Top Model, and is in the Top 10 of Beauty With A Purpose (BWAP).

She is also currently in the Top 10 of People’s Choice – voted for online by Miss World fans. If the winner of this poll is not among the Top 5, she is added as a sixth finalist. Regardless of the People’s Choice result, It looks safe to assume Rolene will be among the Top 5/6 this year.

Rolene is also entered in the delayed Miss Universe 2014, actually taking place in January next year, in Miami. Miss World winners have gone on to compete and place at Miss Universe, though it has to be a moot point whether either organisation ideally wants a winner sullied by not winning the rival beauty pageant.

Recent Miss World history throws up some revealing stats. Last year’s winner, Megan Young, Miss Philippines, won Top Model but did not place in the Top 10 of BWAP. However, 6 of the BWAP Top 10 last year finished in the Top 11 overall, including 2nd placer Miss France and 3rd placer Miss Ghana.

In 2012, 4 of the BWAP Top 10 finished in the Top 7 overall including 2nd placer Miss Wales and 3rd placer Miss Australia. So based on recent stats, it looks a fair bet that at least two of the BWAP top 10 this year will finish in the Top 3 overall.

The videos for this year’s BWAP Top 10 can be viewed online on the Miss World YouTube channel and it would come as no surprise if Miss Guyana, Rafieya Husain, has won BWAP this year as her project is the fight against domestic violence, and on the eve of Miss World 2014, Miss Honduras, Maria Jose Alvarado, was murdered in a domestic violence incident.

Miss Netherlands, Tatjana Maul, has a strong BWAP video too focusing on human trafficking and forced prostitution. This project has been highlighted in media coverage on the Miss World website leading up to this year’s Contest and Tatjana speaks very eloquently.

If there is another Megan Young – i.e., a Top Model winner who isn’t in the BWAP Top 10 and goes on to take the Miss World crown – it is possibly Miss Hungary, Edina Kulcsar, who also aided her Outright chance by finishing 2nd in the Sports & Fitness challenge.

Miss India, Koyal Rana, is in this year’s BWAP Top 10 and also figures among the Top 20 of Top Model, is currently in the People’s Choice Top 10, and also won World Fashion Designer Dress. So she looks to have the most solid solid top 3 credentials overall.

The last time Miss South Africa won was following the resignation of Miss UK in 1974. Netherlands has not won Miss World since 1962, Hungary and Guyana have never won Miss World before, while the last Miss India to win was back in 2000.

This Sunday is also the BBC’s Sports Personality Of The Year 2014. This looks a straight fight between Rory McIlroy, with 2 Major golf titles including a first British Open, and Lewis Hamilton, who won a second F1 World Championship last month.

The timeliness of Hamilton’s win sees him go into Sunday’s SPOTY with all the momentum and there is a solid argument he is still value at 2-1. He has been doing the rounds on TV and radio, and recent polls in a number of national newspapers have him in front of McIlroy.

F1 certainly has a stronger SPOTY record down the years than golf, providing 6 past winners to golf’s 2. The last F1 winner was Damon Hill back in 1996; the last golf winner Nick Faldo in 1989.

You can speculate on petrol heads being more partisan than clubhouse bores, but there has never been a head-to-head of this nature before. It is a difficult one to call which may come down to the edit on the night, and how they come across during interview.

Of more interest is Top 3 betting. There appears to have been a market over-estimation of the strength of the football vote aiding Gareth Bale to a top 3 finish. But it seems unlikely a Real Madrid player is going to get enough widespread support.

Jo Pavey looks to have much stronger Top 3 claims, her track success being the feel-good sports story of the year. 40-year-old Jo, a mother of two, took gold in the 10,000-metres at the European Championship only 10 months after giving birth to her second child. Ten days earlier she took bronze in the 5,000-metres at the Commonwealth Games.

She could well corner the housewives’ vote, and will be a populist choice given the emotive backdrop to her achievements. She is a best-priced 11-8 to finish top 3. It might be wiser to consider backing her to finish 3rd at 13-8 with Ladbrokes and have a cover on her finishing 2nd at 10-1, in case one of the big two flops.

One final festive flutter worth flagging up: Christmas Day TV Ratings: Top Programme Betting. The value here has to be Miranda at 4-1 with BetVictor. A 7.15pm slot for this popular sit-com looks like a potential sweet spot to land most viewers, and there is a lot of heat around Miranda this year given this is the first of a two-parter which will see the show come to an end.

Favourite Mrs Browns Boys is on at 10pm having landed the top rating spoils last year from the earlier 9.30pm slot. 10pm might just prove a little too late, while Downton Abbey faces off against Eastenders for the second year running which should hamper both.

Recommendations:

Miss World 2014 – Miss India – 8-1 – 2pt e/w – Skybet
Miss Hungary – 20-1 – 0.5pt e/w – Skybet
Miss Netherlands – 20-1 – 0.5pt e/w – William Hill
Miss Guyana – 25-1 – 0.5pt e/w – William Hill

SPOTY 2014 – Jo Pavey – to finish 3rd – 13-8 – 4pt win – Ladbrokes

to finish 2nd – 10-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes

Miranda – Top Christmas Day Ratings – 4-1 – 2pt win – BetVictor