Semi 1 Fallout – Babushki Buried?

May 23, 2012 by

Semi 1 Fallout – Babushki Buried?

Having looked such a puzzle beforehand the 10 envelopes went pretty much as expected in semi 1 last night. It was 9 out of 10 for us in the gloating stakes, but not a good night for qualification favourite layers looking to land some sneaky early bounty.

What we can pass on, is that Ivi saved by far her best performance for last night. What you heard coming through your tv screens was a marked improvement on her effort the previous night in front of the juries, and in the dress rehearsal earlier in the afternoon.

It was tough on Switzerland to miss out after Sinplus put in another excellent performance, but very pleasing to see Albania (one of our big early calls to qualify at Evens) and Hungary get through.

Here is the final draw as it stands now:

1. UK
2. Hungary
3. Albania
6. Russia
7. Iceland
8. Cyprus
9. France
10. Italy
13. Azerbaijan
14. Romania
15. Denmark
16. Greece
19. Spain
20. Germany
23. Ireland
26. Moldova

Having been happy to leave Russia a substantial red on the Outright, a loud sigh of relief could be heard echoing round the conference hall when it landed the 6 slot – surely it’s curtains for the Babushki from there? And as far as the big Cyprus vs Greece head-to-head, it looks very much advantage Greece with Eleftheria pulling out 16 and Ivi 8.

Iceland’s hopes look to have wilted away after getting a poor draw in 7, while Moldova and Ireland both boosted their top 10 chances drawing 26 and 23 respectively. Probably one of the most interesting parts of the draw right now is 13-16. Some stark contrasts going on there and all songs have a chance to stand out in their own way.

Romania’s party tune follows Sabina’s excellent ballad, and Soluna has found a potentially advantageous enclave for her garage band wedged between two uptempo tunes in ‘Zaleilah’ and ‘Aphrodisiac’.

The biggest winners from last night’s draw are arguably the 10 awaiting semi 2 qualifiers with 6 excellent late slots still up for grabs. Drop by later for news on tonight’s semi 2 jury rehearsals. Like semi 1 we will give an analysis of the first run through, and then reveal how things went in front of the juries in the Comments section that follows.
Rob Furber

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  1. Oh no! Romania singer wasn’t in tune, she was screaming!
    I will never make any forcasts, Rob)

  2. Rob

    Hi Janeair & welcome to EntertainmentOdds! I think that’s a little harsh on lovely Elena. She did lose her earpiece during the performance but she seemed to cope admirably.

    Will be interesting to see if it cost Romania semi 1 victory.

  3. hemsby

    Thanks for the update Rob.
    I wasn’t particularly impressed with anything last night.Romania was a particular disappointment….was there any fallout from what seemed to be a problem with her ear piece?
    For me,taking into consideration the performances and subsequent draw allotments,the winners were possibly the acts not to perform ie Sweden,Spain,Germany etc.

  4. I ve made mistake, Albania…

  5. Romania singer has so nice dress, that she needn’t sing at all)

  6. Henry VIII

    Great evening. Think I’m going to become quite a eurovision fanboy (but not in the biblical sense).

  7. Rob

    Janeair – Rona from Albania is something of an acquired taste for sure, but delighted to see her get through.

    hemsby – if you watch the clip back, she wasn’t hearing the song through the ear-piece early on so chose to ditch it, and then improv her way through.

    Henry – it’s wonderful, isn’t it? A tremendous trading vehicle, constantly evolving, with so many value angles to try and attack from.

    Updated final link by the way (link found at top of homepage) – always useful to get a sense of how the songs back up:

  8. Matt

    hi Rob

    Thanks for your sterling work out in Baku. Eurovision is always the most lucrative time of the year for me and this year is already shaping up well.

    I know from your comments, you are not a fan of the Germany offering but to me it looks a certain top 10 and could push top 4. Forgetting your feelings on the song, how is he performing? Is he known in Europe? How is the staging looking?

    Be interested in your thoughts.

    Thanks again

  9. Rob

    Hi Matt. Thanks for your kind praise. Will need a crate of Red Bull to see me through until after Saturday night but should be ok 🙂
    When you look at that top 10 market, it’s a very crowded place with a lot of contenders vying for those spots. Roman may well go down a storm with female voters but I can’t help but remember how underwhelmed I was on 1st hearing ‘Standing Still’. The juries may well reward it but it just meanders along & also worth factoring in how low down Germany is by way of voting strength in the final.
    He sells it fine, staring down the camera in his cute beanie with those dreamy eyes, but that’s the strongest element of it – his telegenic appeal.
    The staging is fine. Lighting is good. Not sure he is known outside Germany. It remains a borderline top 10 for me and I doubt I’ll be getting involved either way.

  10. fiveleaves

    Hi Rob,
    I wouldn’t totally write off the Russian grans, but the early draw clearly not helpful.

    I thought last night overall was good for Spain with all the fancied runners from last nights semi drawn before it and only the ‘joke acts’ of Jedward and Moldova (still love it) drawn after it.
    Also I’m glad that Albania, the other great female vocal is drawn nowhere near Spain.

    Something we’ve discussed elsewhere is how the backdrops really didn’t look effective on screen and that the acts that kept their staging compact, came over the best.
    One of them being Cyprus. I’m still confident that it will make top 10 :p

  11. Please explain me the difference between Greece and Cyprus…whom song is better? Or who is more attractive on the stage? I would like to know male point of view.
    Thank you

  12. Rob

    Jon Ola Sand revealed: ‘8 songs agreed by both, 1 thanks to televoters and 1 made it down to the jury.’

    So which song was not in the jury top 10, but was with televoters? High hopes this is Russia.

    Who was neglected by televoters buy got in thanks to juries? Albania or Hungary, maybe…?
    The plot thickens…

  13. Rob

    Hi Janeair – this is a good question. Both the Greek and Cypriot songs are very cheap but catchy pop. The 2 ladies in question are both Greek-Cypriot and Ivi beat Eleftheria on Greek X Factor.
    From a personal point of view Eleftheria is far sexier. She is more confident, really sells it and has better stage presence than Ivi.
    Of course, they will give each other 12pts in the final but Greece’s stronger base of voting allies and later draw should see it finish higher on the scoreboard than Cyprus. I recommend taking the 3-5 Greece vs Cyprus with Bwin.

    Hi fiveleaves – much still to play for with the draw with those late slots still up for grabs. Still happy to be against Ivi making the top 10. Not a good draw in 8 and it’s way down on voting strength in the final compared to Greece in 16.

    Did you see the above story? If Babushki were among the 8 to make the jury top 10, then they have probably won semi 1. But I think they were the one that missed out and only got in on televote boost.

  14. fiveleaves

    Yep, I saw that Rob.
    Maybe too much to hope for that Russia didn’t make the top 10 with the juries? I dunno.

    As for Greece v Cyprus.
    Cyprus the better song, better presented and for me(Greece looks rather cobbled together) and Ivi has the better voice (with the help of backing singers 😉 )
    Draw clearly a worry, but less so for an uptempo number.
    Also clearly fewer ‘votes in the bag’
    Greece may well beat Cyprus, but I can see Cyprus top 10 if she performs it as well as last night.
    With a late draw I could have seen it going close to winning

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