Serbs To Be Sunk In Semi 1

May 9, 2011 by

It’s the eve of the first ESC semi and for many TV betting fans, this is the biggest, most exciting betting week of the year.
It is the 2nd rehearsals at which the juries vote so come this evening 50 per cent of the vote for the first semi will already be known. This rehearsal is closed off bar the media in Dusseldorf who get to view it in the press centre. We suggest keeping a close eye on the semi-final 1 market on Betfair, and see if there are any significant price movements.
And don’t forget the 10 qualifiers from semi 1 tomorrow night will draw their final positions immediately following the semi, and this is sure to have an impact on the markets.
We think this year’s semi-final 1 is devilishly difficult to call, but on value grounds alone Serbia is worth laying on Betfair‘s ‘To Qualify’ market at its current lay price of 1.47. Or better yet, backing ‘Not To Qualify‘ at 5-2 with Victor Chandler. An early draw in 6 and comparatively weak voting allies in this semi, combined with the fact it is followed by the excellent Russian entry sung by Alex Sparrow, could see this retro tune just miss out.
It’s hard to imagine the first 5 nations to perform all qualifying, but as the odds stand, and factoring in friends in this semi, Albania remains great value to qualify at a back price currently on Betfair of 2.3. Poland is a riskier punt at 3.3 but we still think ‘Jestem’ has big impact and could yet squeeze through. A lot hinges on Magdalena bringing her A game to her jury and televote performances, and hopefully wearing a sexier outfit rather than the hideous chain mail nappy she was decked out in during rehearsal 2 and which clearly hampered her dancing. We also do not think Turkey is a certainty and definitely not a 1.1 shot.
In regard to a nation like Georgia, who we still think has great top 10 claims in the final granted a decent draw, it might be worth considering laying Georgia to qualify at a current lay price of 1.59, to cover your stake on Georgia to finish top 10 at a current back price of 9.8. We still see this well performed rock tune leaping out at televoters and doing well enough with juries. If it gets through and gets a decent final draw, its top 10 price will plummet. This is just one of the many betting quandaries faced by ESC punters. On a similar note, Poland at 16 on Betfair to finish top 10 is probably a better value proposition than getting involved in a qualifying bet on Poland.
We also think Azerbaijan remains excellent value at 2-1 with Boylesports and Victor Chandler to win semi-final 1, and Greece to finish top 3 at 5-1 with bwin. Greece is also a stand out at 8-5 with bwin in semi 1 head-to-head betting with Turkey. This song’s staging is a dramatic triumph, Loukas Giorkas delivers a stirring live vocal, it has the 2nd highest voting allies in this semi (behind Azerbaijan) and has the best of the draw performing last.
Rob Furber

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