Soler’s Solo Could See Spain Shine

Mar 4, 2012 by

Up to now we have been keeping our powder largely dry by way of ESC Outright recommendations. This is partly due to the fact it remains such early days on the long and winding road to Baku glory. Our only concrete advice to date was Iceland e/w at 50-1. It has been pleasing to see this price come down since, Iceland now trading at a best price of 33-1.
We recommend adding to your Outright portfolio now with one of last night’s qualifiers, namely, Spain, available at time of writing at a best price of 40-1 e/w first 4 with Ladbrokes. If you are too slow, we would still be happy to take 33-1 e/w first 4 which is currently with William Hill.
To our mind, Spain chose very wisely in selecting the stirring ballad ‘Quedate conmigo’ for solo female vocalist Pastora Soler. As ESC ballads go, we think this is a stand out. Pastora has an excellent vocal and she is capable of delivering this powerful ballad with authentic emotion. Regardless of language differences, it’s a real spine-tingler of a ballad, ‘Quedate conmigo’ resonating further by having a big, orchestral key change in its last minute. If it doesn’t leave an abiding mark on the ESC audience, we would be very surprised, while jurors Europe wide will surely be moved to tears in between reaching for their 12 paddles.
We know that ESC juries, historically speaking, have a tendency to like well-executed solo female ballads – see the jury scores achieved by Austria and Slovenia last year as examples of this.
This year, as we pointed out a couple of weeks ago, will feature a lot of solo female ballads, but regardless of this we think Pastora is comfortably clear of the rest, and could really shine in Baku – this clip will probably disappear fast so we hope you caught it time:

We also saw last year how a song loved by juries can be catapulted to the top of the leaderboard regardless of an average televoting total. Last year, it was of course Italy’s Raphael Gualazzi singing ‘Madness Of Love’ that captured jurors’ imaginations. We see no reason why ‘Quedate conmigo’ can not make a similar sort of impact this year.
A big plus for Spain backers is that there’s no sweating on semi-final qualification. Of course, if Spain is going to push for the very top, it will still need a reasonable televote, so a late draw would be beneficial. Spain is towards the bottom of the chart by way of voting allies and cannot rely on guaranteed points in the same way other nations can, so it will be a case of the later the draw, the better.
When the 6 automatic qualifiers draw their position in the final running order on March 19, Spain backers can only keep their fingers crossed that their delegate pulls out a high number. Spain won the wildcard last year – which is supposed to be random – allowing it to choose its start position, and the Spanish delegate wisely chose the 22 spot. The shame for Spain was they sent a poor party song last year – Lucia Perez singing ‘Que me quieten lo bailao – so could not take advantage. This year a similar sort of draw outcome would surely see Spain’s odds tumble.
Spain has a one in six chance of landing the wildcard again but it is also worth remembering that Italy managed to finish 2nd last year despite a very ordinary draw of 12, and televoters only rating it 11th (out of 25). We think even a single figure draw would not put Spain out of contention for a very high position on the leaderboard. What are others’ thoughts? Do you rate Spain a potential contender? Yes or no, we would love to hear your opinions.
Rob Furber

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3 Comments

  1. JOHANSEN

    Spain will win the festival this year, Pastora is the best you, your song is perfect and this year there is no lot level. It is almost impossible to not win.

  2. Jack

    I think Spain too has great potential too Rob. Far better entry than last year. A standout recommendation especially at those early odds. I see Pastora Soler is now trading at 25/1. Do you still think that price is value or have I missed the boat?

    • Rob

      Thanks for posting, Jack, and a good question as the Spain odds have now dropped to 25-1. Probably best to hold off from taking that price until we have the draw for the 6 automatic qualifiers in the final, which will take place on March 19 or possibly March 20. If Spain draws a position in the running order in double figures, 25-1 will represent reasonable value still. If it gets a draw anywhere from 18-26 then 25-1 will be very good value indeed and we might expect to see the price drop significantly.

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