Swede Dreams

Feb 2, 2024 by

Swede Dreams

The 2024 Eurovision season is already in full swing and this week saw the allocation draw for the two semi-finals. Malmo will host, as it last did in 2013, following Loreen’s victory with ’Tattoo’ in Liverpool last year.

Sweden requires one more win to edge ahead of Ireland as the winning most ESC nation and it will appropriately be the 50th anniversary of Abba’s win with ‘Waterloo’ back in 1974.

The trading landscape of ESC has evolved dramatically since the first year of providing analysis here all the way back in 2010.

Sadly, it looks like rehearsals will remain behind closed doors in Malmo and with no media on site to lend a critical eye over proceedings the fan hype expressed on social media feels a more significant factor now in dictating the narrative.

It definitely fuelled the momentum that grew behind ‘Cha Cha Cha’ last year which is already encouraging a lot of nations to try and seek their own incarnation of it this year. Ultimately, Loreen fended off Kaarija by 57pts but it was a lot closer than many expected.

This year the political landscape is back having a big say on the Outright. Israel was initially backed down to as low as 6.4. Since then Iceland has hit a low of 4.7 after Palestinian music artist Bashar Murad was revealed as taking part in Söngvakeppnin.

Iceland has since drifted following the release of his song. The market is still jumpy and fearful of factors outside of music having a significant say due to Ukraine’s win in 2022, and Ukraine looks like bringing another highly competitive entry to the table.

You have to doff your cap to it for consistently unearthing entries of this quality. Ukraine is the current favourite around 5.6 on Betfair to win ESC 2024 ahead of tomorrow night’s Vidbir and if ‘Teresa & Maria’ wins impressively there it will be interesting to see what price Ukraine ends up trading at the end of the evening.

The market is still jumpy and fearful of factors outside of music having a significant say due to Ukraine’s win in 2022

The UK resides as second favourite due to Years & Years’ Olly Alexander revealed as the UK artist. Olly still has plenty to prove. A Dua Lipa songwriter’s involvement and one or two UK delegation people trying to talk up the song counts for nothing at this stage.

Italy’s Sanremo starts next week and Italy’s recent form figures of 6th, 5th, 2nd, 1st, 6th, 4th is why the market always respects its chance. It’s a similar story with fifth favourite and reigning ESC champion Sweden, with Melodifestivalen getting underway tomorrow.

Ireland has been something of a market springer, punters presumably believing its entry is the sort of quirky, outside the box effort that can go down a storm with televoters.

Ireland has been drawn in the first half of semi-final 1 and while it will be thankful to have the UK voting (Sweden and Germany also voting), it doesn’t look a straight forward qualification for Ireland as things currently stand.

Lithuania was another market plunge this year, being heavily backed at 5 and 6 on Betfair. After frantically searching for potential leaks, The Roop’s song has since turned up. It’s pleasant enough but doesn’t really excite. Is there something else lurking in the last couple of semi-finals there that got the backer excited? Or maybe it’s this.

The Baltics look like supplying some competitive entries this year. Dons is the front-runner in Latvia while 5miinust and Puuluup is the favourite at Eesti Laul in front of Ollie.

It could be a decent year for the Big 5. Among the entries we know so far France is arguably among the strongest, Ryk is trying to win the ticket in Germany, and St Pedro is odds-on fav to win Spain’s Benidorm Fest final tomorrow night.

Croatia’s Dora looks a strong national final this year and if fan heat is anything to go by then this will be selected there. It’s the sort of thing you can imagine fans going crazy for presuming it is performed well enough live.

It’s the MGP final in Norway tomorrow and it looks all set up for Gate to win there, drawn 8/9. It has some vague echoes of Slovakia 2010 and France 2022, both of which disappointed. In Finland this is the favourite to win UMK.

Luxembourg returns to ESC 2024 after a 31 year absence. Its entry has been decided and competing in the second half of semi 1 it may have high hopes of being awarded the pimp slot. The French language lends it some extra colour while it remains very much an ESC uptempo-by-numbers sort of entry.

With Georgia arriving on the back of six consecutive NQs there might be scope for a Nutsa Buzaladze pimp slot given she looks likely to have an uptempo song

Semi two appears to have a number of potential pimp options and with Georgia arriving on the back of six consecutive NQs there might be scope for a Nutsa Buzaladze pimp slot given she looks likely to have an uptempo song.

This looks a good semi in terms of historical voting patterns for all of Greece, Albania and Armenia, drawn in the first half. Spain, Italy and France vote on this one, and we also have the ROTW vote to factor into both semi-finals now, presuming a repeat of last year.

Plenty going on, plenty of tricky decisions to be made in deciding whether you want to be a backer or a layer at current prices. The hope is that one or two contenders emerge from outside those nations at the top of the market as of today. Sometimes, a shrewd back to lay can be as lucrative as ultimately finding the winner of Eurovision.

If seeking some informed betting opinion this ESC season, this year’s subscription is open. As the site edges towards a +1,000pt profit total achieved over the last decade or so, this service has a proven track record for earning subscribers money. It is not fanfared from the rafters because the best way to operate in the world of Specials is discreetly.

Join up today and partake of some of the most astute Eurovision analysis around. You will have enormous fun being part of a clandestine group of punters aiming to stay one step ahead of the crowd trading ESC, along with all the other big Specials events between now and May including the upcoming BAFTAs and Oscars.

1 Comment

  1. Montell

    Vsauce representing Estonia. Nice!

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