Tattoo Art

Mar 21, 2023 by Rob

We now know the full 37-runner field at Eurovision 2023. The Outright is dominated by Sweden, currently trading at 2.14 following a small drift from being odds-on previously. Loreen’s ‘Tattoo’ strolled to a comfortable Melodifestivalen victory and looks a worthy favourite heading to Liverpool.

It’s an audio-visual tour de force and is sure to create a highly memorable, show-stealing three minutes, in a similar manner to Mans Zelmerlow’s ‘Heroes’ in 2015 and Sergey Lazarev’s ‘You Are The Only One’ in 2016. The big question is, is it a Mans (1st) or a Sergey (3rd)?

One Swedish unknown left to be answered is, what exactly we will see in Liverpool with concerns expressed regarding the 1.8 tonne overhead screen possibly being disallowed.

Whatever adaptions need to be made, the end product is unlikely to be compromised that much but it may require an ad break prior to Loreen taking to the stage to allow time to set it up.

There has been plenty of disgruntlement expressed among the fan community regarding ‘Tattoo’ but this stems largely from Sweden’s perceived monopoly of the Contest, and a nostalgic adoration of ‘Euphoria’, and grumbles that it’s not as good.

In the bigger picture, this fan bubble discontent counts for very little. On her ESC return 11 years after ‘Euphoria’, this offers a feel-good narrative for Loreen. Sure to be mentioned by broadcasters Europe-wide, it will likely encourage the wider audience to pay more attention and to root for her, perhaps even more so when they’re informed she is favourite to win.

Also potentially aiding Sweden in its bid to level Ireland’s seven Eurovision wins is that competition for Loreen on the jury side looks thin on the ground this year. However, there are a few potential televote big hitters for her to contend with led by Finland.

Kaarija’s ‘Cha Cha Cha’ is a big fan favourite but also screams jury poison. Finnish investors are essentially putting their faith in jury members turning their back on 13 years of voting behaviour in believing they will rank it highly enough to compete for the win.

The fact it resides as second favourite speaks volumes for the lack of competition around this year with Ukraine’s market position as third favourite purely down to fears of a repeat of last year’s huge televote as the conflict with Russia rages on.

Performing from the 19 slot in the grand final, Ukraine’s Tvorchi is not going to be hamstrung by running order. Automatic qualification is arguably a small drawback, with the song not being seen in full until Saturday night’s show. This is a situation endured by the Big 5 every year, of course, and didn’t stop Italy finishing 1st and France 2nd in 2021, and the UK 2nd and Spain 3rd last year.

The UK landing the pimp slot (26) in the EBU’s behind-closed-doors running order draw for this year’s host nation has re-ignited hope Mae Muller might break into the top 10, being matched currently on Betfair around 2.24.

Success from the pimp slot is not a given, however, and a lot still depends on Mae’s live performance, the staging of ‘I Wrote A Song’, and even more significantly, what ends up placed before the UK in the running order. If either or both of Sweden and Finland draws 2nd half, for instance, it is probably a long odds-on shot at least one of them will be placed between 20 and 24.

Israel has come in for some strong support in recent days, currently trading at 25, possibly due to the fact it is going well in second place on the eurovisionworld.com poll.

Noa Kirel’s ‘Unicorn’ is going to be reliant on an impressive stage show and while Israel has an excellent track record when it comes to impactful stagings of uptempo pop songs, there have to remain concerns on the jury side with this entry.

Even bigger jury concerns apply to Norway, matched as low as 7.8 on the Betfair Exchange, and currently residing as 4th favourite around 20. Alessandra’s ‘Queen Of Kings’ is only something you would see and hear on the Eurovision stage and is less of a credible pop song, more a uniquely Scandi-sounding sea shanty that would make the ideal theme music to a historical tv drama.

You look back on past entries such as Keiino’s ’Spirit In The Sky’, 6th in 2019 (1st on the televote, 18th on the jury side) and Rasmussen’s ‘Higher Ground’, 9th in 2018 (5th on the televote, 20th on the jury side) and it looks a difficult route to victory for Norway.

Spain is an entry many are expecting to be a big hit with jury members. The staging of Blanca Paloma’s ‘Eaea’ and her live performance are both of a high quality. The worry is, the song itself is not easily accessible and flamenco music looks highly unlikely to travel well around Europe.

Among those nations loitering further down the list, backers are taking a leap of faith the live performance and staging will see them transform into contenders in Liverpool, known in ESC trading circles, as doing a Common Linnets.

Czech Republic has the potential to rise up the rankings if it is a triumph live. We have only seen Vesna’s ‘My Sister’s Crown’ on a very limited stage at ESCZ and there is a lot of work to do based on this:

But all the ingredients are there for it to do well if the Czechs are able to pull off a Ukraine-level staging of it, which remains the big ‘if’.

Austria’s entry, ‘Who The Hell Is Edgar?’, performed by Teya & Salena, is drawn in the weaker semi 2 and is in the second half to boot which sees it residing as strong favourite to win semi 2, already matched as low as 2 on Betfair.

It’s another entry that looks a surefire televoting hit. Finland trading at 6.4 and Austria at 60 on the Outright, when both have traded at 2 to win their respective semis, and both face the same jury obstacles, is probably the biggest anomaly we have ever seen in ESC trading.

Another curious element this year is potential jury-friendly entries, such as Switzerland, The Netherlands and Estonia, in greater jeopardy of not qualifying for the grand final due to the 100% televote format for this year’s semi-finals. And if we do see jury bait casualties in the semi-finals, this could clear the path even more for Sweden.

France and Italy both have some jury appeal, and further down the list, the likes of Georgia, Armenia and Moldova all have the scope to enter top 10 calculations. As a value seeker hope always springs eternal for something turning up out of leftfield and surprising everyone in Liverpool.

Latvia, for one, may well end up a casualty of the new 100% televoting format in the semi-finals but has to be one of the classiest 1000-1 shots you will ever find trading Eurovision.

All eyes on the upcoming running order reveals for the two semi-finals, semi 1 in particular with four of the top seven in the betting in Sweden, Finland, Israel and Czech Republic all featuring in the 2nd half.

Will the EBU give one of these nations the built-in advantage of the pimp slot, or try its best to level the playing field? Semi-final running orders were revealed on March 29 last year so hopefully we hear something in the next week or so.

In the coming weeks we will have the pre-ESC concert circuit starting on Saturday with the Barcelona Eurovision Party.

The action moves on to Madrid on April 8, Amsterdam on April 15 and London the day after. We will also start to see the OGAE and Eurojury country results coming in. But our biggest pointer, as always, will be when rehearsals get underway in Liverpool, presumably on April 29.