The Delta Force

Mar 19, 2026 by Rob

‘Finland’s gonna win. Finland’s gonna win. Finland’s gonna win…’ Say something often enough, and it starts to feel like fact. Repetition doesn’t make something true; it just makes it harder to ignore.

Dip into ESC-focused social media and what you encounter is a tsunami of fan sentiment telling you Finland is going to win this year’s Contest, the fervour often bordering on the hysterical in beseeching it to happen. Inevitably, this fan hype has fed directly into the Winner market on the Betfair Exchange with Finland currently trading as 2.86 favourite, having eased slightly in the last few days.

Watching the Finnish price go shorter and shorter perfectly encapsulates the mental battlefield of Eurovision trading, and whether you can hold firm in your own conviction, when your conviction is telling you, strongly, it’s not good enough to win. The case against: it’s dated, it’s cliched, it’s hammy, it lacks credibility… But Finland remains a strong favourite and that incessant chorus is not going away.

One question worth asking is, would it be 2.86 favourite if it wasn’t Finland? The Finnish worship among fans stems largely from Kaarija’s near miss in 2023. Finland deserves to win to make up for the cruel injustice of ‘Cha Cha Cha’ not winning, goes their thinking.

Putting aside this cult-like Finnish adoration within the bubble, will the wider viewing audience buy into it, or music professionals for that matter, who sit on the juries?

Perhaps most in Finland’s favour is that it feels like a sub-standard year, and we could be in line for another winner that secures less than 450pts. But it’s certainly not bullet-proof.

The main issue is, it’s hard to imagine it coming anywhere near to topping the jury vote, and unless the fan community is now firmly in control of the televote it doesn’t feel like a guaranteed big pv magnet either.

In the last couple of years juries appear to have coalesced behind one entry, seemingly as a means to ensure Israel doesn’t win. It doesn’t have the ‘vocal capacity’ tick in the box that aided Switzerland and Austria; nor the contemporariness of either of those two entries.

Fans love the interplay between hunky vocalist, Pete, and glamorous violinist Linda, and Finland being Finland it has done a clever staging job in eking out every last drop of faux drama. Perhaps juries will be generous, especially in light of the fact it carries favourite status.

France is being cited as guaranteed jury bait based on the last two years of pop-opera entries ranked first by juries. As a song, it feels contrived and like Finland it lacks a melody, but will the USP of a teenage girl, Monroe, powering out ‘Regarde!’ seduce the so-called music professionals? The televote could prove a much bigger obstacle.

The song that has impressed most during on-season is Denmark. A brilliant stage show and compelling frontman elevate ‘Før vi går hjem’ out of all proportion. Watching Søren live, it comes across as genuine artistry, and he owns the performance in a way that deserves huge respect.

If juries favour something modern then this should have the edge on Finland. The concern would be his androgynous look and the uber-gay visuals possibly holding it back, especially in the East.

Greece comes across as the year’s likeliest big televote hit. It’s catchy and fun but the staging needs a massive re-think, put in the hands of Fokas Evangelinos. The national final was the definition of ‘colour vomit’, as coined by Sofabet Daniel.

Without a few clever English lyrics interspersed on screen, in particular at the climax of ‘Ferto’ when it shifts into a heart-felt ballad, it risks coming across as non-sensical. It also needs to overcome the curse of recent Contests – the biggest televote hit (outside of Israel) hurt by juries so much it doesn’t win overall.

So there are reservations attached to all the market leaders right now. As such, perhaps the safest and best value stock to invest in this year is Australia.

Delta Goodrem is an A-list pop star in Eurovision world, and she arrives with an easily-accessible, classy ballad naysayers will claim is too old-fashioned to win. That viewpoint could be overstated partly due to ‘outside the box’ entries winning three of the last four Contests. The counter argument is, it could just stand out as something warmly familiar and carrying a clear stamp of quality.

Delta is sure to deliver an outstanding live performance. She will presumably sit at the piano and it looks a straight forward staging project.

We saw Dami Im romp the jury vote in 2016 and ten years on there’s scope for Delta to do something similar. Juries have had the propensity to rate Australia highly ever since it first arrived on the ESC scene in 2015. It’s definitely a much easier sell compared to its perceived main jury competition, which are all songs performed in a foreign language.

Going back to 2010 and Lena’s ’Satellite’, in the last 15 years only two entirely foreign language songs have topped the jury vote – Portugal’s Salvador Sorbral in 2017 and Gjon’s Tears for Switzerland in 2021, who edged out Barbara Pravi in an exceptional year for foreign language songs. Strictly speaking, Italy’s Raphael Gualazzi was a bi-lingual entry in 2011.

Among the big three Nordic nations this year, Sweden arguably has more potential negatives than the other two. Felicia in a mask, a suspect live vocal, and a vaguely menacing red and black staging canvas. Nothing about ‘My System’ feels welcoming as an EDM track, and a top 10 finish is by no means certain despite juries tending to give Sweden points purely for being Sweden.

Ukraine is reminiscent of a Disney ballad and Lelek will try and pull a Zlata Ognevich (3rd, 2013) without having Zlata’s vocal prowess. Similar to Israel, we have some compelling evidence of juries scoring Ukraine down but its televote will no doubt remain strong, and another top 10 finish looks likely.

Israel is, in truth, a stronger ballad than France but the quality of its entry is irrelevant. Despite the change to a maximum of ten votes per person rather than 20, this won’t prevent Israel propagandising the Contest again in seeking to ramp up support. And to counter this, we can only presume a concerted effort to score it down among juries, but this is unlikely to prevent it finishing in the top 5.

A Pro-Palestinian demonstration planned for grand final day in Vienna is sure to play into Israel’s hands, and be spun as anti-Semitic.

Moldova arrives with a classic Moldovan televote magnet in ‘Viva, Moldova!’. This could come under consideration to open semi-final 1:

Fellow returnee Bulgaria has a ‘big name’ in Dara possibly let down by the song, ‘Bangaranga’, which will seek to emulate Noa Karei’s ‘Unicorn’, 3rd in 2023, aided by a clever stage presentation.

It was Malta’s ‘serving kant’ last year; this year it’s Romania’s ‘Choke Me’ that has got the self-appointed guardians of good taste up in arms. Carrying big energy and the stamp of alt-rock, this is definitely something that could be elevated on the big stage in Vienna, aided by Alexandra Capitanescu who is a commanding frontwoman.

Serbia’s Lavina with ‘Kraj mene’ is darker and leans more into goth metal. The screeches followed by that demonic growl at song climax definitely give it USP but it looks an acquired taste.

Cyprus, if staged with lightness and charm, is an authentic and better than standard ethno pop number. Antigoni could do with some clever backing vocal support and choreo that doesn’t overburden her for this uptempo entry to fly.

Czechia briefly got the Winner market excited. It’s an atmospheric ballad and Daniel Zizka is going to have to be outstanding live, along with the staging, for it to resonate. Perhaps the highest quality ballad going under the radar this year is Latvia’s Atvara with ‘Ena’. In theory, the return of juries aids the qualification prospects of entries like this.

Malta’s ‘Bella’ carries a timeless, Old Hollywood charm. The ruination of it as things currently stand, is Aidan’s incongruous wardrobe choice of bike leathers destroying the spell. He would be much better served styled like a classy matinee idol in a fittingly intimate stage setting. Maltese delegation, are you listening? Probably not.

Italy has chosen a charismatic old crooner in Sal Da Vinci singing an old school cabaret number, that could be straight out of ESC 1985, over one or two other Sanremo entries that had greater top 5 potential. Juries are usually generous when it comes to Italy, and it tends to find a televote from somewhere, so another top 10 finish could be within reach.

Switzerland is a contemporary, radio-friendly hit but it would come as no surprise if it is passed over in the Contest before finding success post-ESC in a similar vein to Armenia’s Rosa Linn with ’Snap’ in 2022. It will definitely need the juries to get on board for it to qualify from the first half of semi-final 2.

Austria has drawn 25 so the host nation will close the show. The pimp slot is always considered a boost but this has to be the worst closing song we’ll ever get to see and hear.

The UK’s ‘Eins, Zwei, Drei’ seems to have been chosen based on the premise its very title is the epitome of ‘Eurovision-y’. With echoes of Blur and The Sex Pistols, and contrary to the name of the song, it carries a thoroughly British identity. The concern would be how well that travels round the continent, but staged by Fredrik Rydman it does offer vague hope of galvanising a televote.

Croatia’s Lelek with ‘Andromeda’ will attempt to be this year’s Tautumaitas/Vesna and could gain some traction granted epic staging. San Marino’s Senhit has landed the Boy George coup which might see ‘Superstar’ rewarded with the pimp slot in semi 1. Tamara Zivkovic will have hopes Montenegro is granted that luxury instead.

We saw the semi-final running orders revealed on March 27 last year so hopefully there’s not long to wait.

Eurojury is back and we can probably pencil Finland in for the win already. Finland is already topping all the big fan polls and it will presumably win OGAE as well.

‘Finland’s gonna win, Finland’s gonna win, Finland’s gonna win…’ And so we are back to where we began…