The Poles Are Coming!

Feb 23, 2016 by Rob

A month is a long time during Eurovision high season and much has changed since the first ESC 2016 round-up posted back on January 21.

In terms of the Outright, Russia holds firm at the head of the market as we await the premiere of Sergey Lazarev’s track expected to be on March 3.

The latest major plunge has been on Poland which now vies for favouritism and has even been matched as low as 6 on Betfair. The initial buzz around Poland took place after a concert video clip of Edyta Gorniak’s song in the national final, ‘Grateful’, emerged online.

Edyta was ESC runner-up in 1994 and the track sounded promising, only for Margaret to come along with her modern, Rihanna-sounding track ‘Cool Me Down’. How this will sound live is the big question and the Poland national final on March 5 has already become one of the most eagerly-awaited of the year.

Sweden is respected every year by the betting market and finds itself as the default third favourite at the moment as Melodifestivalen continues, closely followed by Germany which has its national final on Thursday night, and the new kid on the block, Australia, who little is known of at time of writing other than Delta Goodrem being mentioned in dispatches.

Armenia comes next in the betting with Iveta Mukuchyan’s song, ‘LoveWave’, expected to be revealed on March 2. So far we still only know 13 songs. It would be 15 but Malta looks likely to change ‘Chameleon’ while there are some question marks still over Francesca Michielin’s song for Italy.

Iceland appears to be conjuring the spirit of Loreen and Mans in the presentation of its representative this year, Greta Salome, with ‘Hear Them Calling’.

Ukraine has managed to put Russia’s nose out of joint with the selection of Jamala’s ‘1944’ while Cyprus was the latest to reveal Minus One’s song ‘Alter Ego’ last night:

The big news last week was, of course, the change in scoring system. It has been received well by the ESC community, and seems a fairer way of scoring compared to the 2013-2015 system. The minor quibbles are only hearing the jury 12pts announced by country spokespeople, and what happens in the event of a televote-only (like Montenegro and FYR Macedonia last year) or jury-only (San Marino) situation.

The shortfall on either side of the televote/jury equation will now be made up of: ‘a substitute result calculated by the result of a pre-selected group of countries… pre-approved by the EBU permanent services and the Reference Group of the Eurovision Song Contest.’

Who exactly is among this pre-selected group of countries in each instance is the big question, as this confected and essentially mythical 50% of the vote could potentially have a say over who qualifies in 10th in the semi-finals and who misses out.

In-running betting could also be very lively during the jury scoring sequence, especially if we get a year like 2011 again, when Italy was a resounding winner of the jury vote but ended up finishing second behind Azerbaijan after a disappointing televote haul.

There have been doubts expressed regarding the value of the algorithm deployed in previous years to create a country announcement order and used to try and conceal the winner for as long as possible and make the scoring more exciting.

The ESC press office has confirmed it will be used again to decide the country running order which effectively means it will be business as usual as this should still provide clues regarding the likely jury winner on the Friday night which has gone on to win Eurovision in 5 of the last 6 years.

Looking ahead to Friday night, excitement of excitements, we have the first UK national final since 2010, live on BBC4 starting at 7.30pm, with the six songs revealed yesterday. While it is a potential improvement on the internal choice of Electro Velvet last year it is a somewhat anodyne selection.

If the running order remains the same, this worryingly points to Karl being favoured by the pimp slot with ‘Miracle’. It is a very generic track and far too insipid to stand out among 26 songs in Stockholm.

Bianca’s ‘Shine A Little Light’, co-written by Leona Lewis, is a pleasant enough ballad and Bianca’s pedigree suggests she should have the live vocal prowess to deliver this song well. Former Voice contestants Joe and Jake’s offering ‘You’re Not Alone’ is the definition of inoffensive, middle-of-the-road pop.

Dulcima’s track, ‘When You Go’, hints at Mumford & Sons promise only to somewhat fall apart in the last minute while Bad Boys Inc frontman Matthew James’s ‘A Better Man’ is possibly the weakest of the 6.

The hope is, with the competition being tucked away on BBC4, the UK’s hardcore ESC fans may hold more sway on the televote-only result, and looking at current polls, Darline leads the way with their harmonious country pop ditty ‘Until Tomorrow’.

This would certainly be the choice here because with some clever staging this female duet could, just could, find a little niche for themselves in this year’s competition and be well received. Despite their youthful inexperience they appear to be an accomplished enough live act having supported The Shires.

They were available at 5-1 at bet365 yesterday which looked decent value and they have now been cut to 7-4. Any investments in this final should be kept to a minimum though because much is likely to hinge on Friday night’s live performances and who the ‘expert’ panel decide to fanfare.

We have another hugely busy and informative weekend upcoming with 5 national finals on Saturday night – Moldova, Hungary, Finland, Slovenia and Norway – and Latvia’s final on Sunday night.

Regarding this year’s ESC 2016 subscription offer, in the first instance subscribers will receive an exclusive ante-post analysis of the Outright market and where the value lies.

We should know all songs by March 14 this year, so subscribers can expect this email to land in their in-box a few days after that.

Subscribers will also enjoy:

– a pre-rehearsals betting analysis of the 2 semi-finals once the precise running order is confirmed and the high street/online firms widely price up the 2 semi-finals.

– a daily betting update during the 2-week rehearsal period in Stockholm, live from the press centre reporting directly from rehearsals, with betting recommendations flagged up exclusively to subscribers throughout.

Spaces are still available but will be limited and are going fast. Grab a piece of the action for £60 and enjoy the ESC 2016 betting recommendations of a trading professional, who achieved a +90pt profit figure for subscribers at ESC 2015, with those all-important selections arriving hot off the press during the live rehearsals in Stockholm.

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