The Truth Is Out There

Feb 6, 2025 by Rob

Eurovision on-season is in full swing, we’ve had the semi-final allocation draw, but have we heard the 2025 winner yet? Time for a first delve into this year’s Contest and assessment of the current state of play.

Sweden is the early favourite on Betfair available to back at 8. This is all due to 2015 winner, Mans Zelmerlow, competing again with ‘Revolution’, a track he describes as more instant and anthemic than ‘Heroes’.

He probably wouldn’t have been persuaded to take part again in Melodifestivalen unless he thinks his song is not only good enough to win in Sweden but to go on to compete for the win at Eurovision.

‘Heroes’ was transformed into a winner by the stage show. He knows the live presentation is key and given what his team came up with for ‘Heroes’ you have to be respectful of this entry’s potential. We will see it in full in heat 4 of MF on February 22, performed from the pimp slot.

Israel has been matched as low as 4 all due to October 7 survivor, Yuval Raphael, representing the country. Her back story undoubtedly helped Yuval win its ‘The Next Star’ competition, and Israel will not shy away from this narrative. Let’s not forget, last year, it tried to get ‘October Rain’ put through as its entry, breaking neutrality rules with a song that blatantly referenced the Hamas attacks.

The song Yuval will compete with hasn’t even been composed yet and we can probably expect a ballad. There were panic stations on the eve of last year’s grand final fearing a huge Israel televote could push it to the ESC win. That televote did transpire but Israel didn’t win courtesy of the juries scoring Eden Golan well down in 12th place.

Due to last year’s goings-on the EBU introduced a new code of conduct back in December and part of that code mentions ‘prohibiting instrumentalization of the Contest’. Well, once more the EBU is going to have to deal with KAN doing its utmost to instrumentalize the Contest courtesy of Yuval.

France has attracted plenty of support on the back of Louane being announced as its artist this year. She has the pedigree but it remains to be seen whether her song will be competitive or not. It looks a confident statement she will premiere her track at the France vs Scotland Six Nations match at the Stade de France on March 15.

After Barbara Pravi finished runner-up in 2021 and Slimane came 4th last year, there is a sense France is edging ever closer to a return to the winner’s enclosure.

Belgium attracted a lot of early money ahead of its national final, backed as low as 6. This was all due to Red Sebastian’s ’Strobe Lights’ which duly won Eurosong by a landslide.

Belgium has since eased to 17. It feels like a track built to showcase Red Sebastian’s impressive falsetto. The production does its best to elevate the song, and it will have impact in Basel, but it is perhaps too primitive in its genre to succeed well enough with jury members.

’Strobe Lights’ might prove a tempting semi-final 1 closer for the organisers as Belgium has drawn second half. It’s very early days but semi-final 1 is already shaping up to be the tougher semi-final to qualify from compared to semi-final 2.

Ukraine, like Israel, commands market respect due to the current political landscape. Vidbir takes place on Saturday evening and there are plenty of interesting songs competing there. Based on polling figures Masha Kondratenko looks favourite to win with ‘No Time To Cry’ but Ziferblat’s ‘Bird of Pray’ could provide strong competition.

Italy always resides around the 17 mark pre-Sanremo which gets underway next week. Among those competing are past Italian representatives Francesca Michielin and Francesco Gabbani. Giorgia is the early favourite and apparently got a standing ovation from the orchestra during early rehearsals.

Estonia has attracted money, support coming in waves as its price has fluctuated between 20 and 30. This is all due to the Tommy Cash entry ‘Espresso Macchiato’. It’s one you can imagine doing good business on the televote but the jury appeal is more questionable.

Czechia has been a plunge this week after Adonxs’ live performance in Malta. But this is a shortened ‘acoustic’ version and not the version they will have built for Eurovision.

As a stripped back piano ballad it’s decent, but Adonxs has gone on record as saying the actual performance will have enormous energy, giving room for dancing, so it’s fair to expect something vastly different to this regarding what we see and hear in Basel.

In Germany, Stefan Raab is back in charge and hope springs eternal he can unearth another Lena (2010, ’Satellite’) when its national qualifier, involving 24 artists split across two initial heats, gets underway on February 14.

Finland’s UMK is on Saturday and the pimp-slotted Erika Vikman with ‘Ich Komme’ is red-hot 1.3 favourite. It looks a classic modern Finnish entry seeking big televote appeal but if they’re thinking jury + televote Goldielocks ‘Made Of’ might prove a more prudent choice if it’s executed well live.

The Netherlands artist Claude looks a talent. It’s all about the song. The Austrian artist JJ (Johannes Pietsch) will likely have a song in ‘Wasted Love’ which aims to showcase his falsetto skills.

Cyprus looks like it means business with Theo Evan who has a writing team including individuals involved with Nemo’s ‘The Code’ last year, and Sergio Jaen, responsible for Bambi Thug’s entry for Ireland last year, will be in charge of the staging.

This year’s UK artist, country pop trio Remember Monday, was exclusively unearthed on Tuesday by The Mirror prior to The Sun taking credit for it.

It looks like the BBC has decided to go firmly down the wholesome path after Olly Alexander’s too on the nose live performance of ‘Dizzy’ last year.

The worry would be, their sound errs on the side of radio-friendly blandness and unless they pull a rabbit out of a hat with a song alleged to have been written by Thomas Stengaard, who co-wrote ‘Only Teardrops’, then you have to fear they may struggle to make enough impact in a 26-runner field. But let’s wait for the song to turn up.

It’s Ireland’s Eurosong tomorrow night and Bobbi Arlo is the favourite to win. You can really hear the Bambi Thug influence in her entry. It remains to be seen if she can do it justice live in The Late Late Show studio. Her biggest threats look to be Samantha Mumba and Reylta.

Latvia’s Supernova takes place on Saturday night when the Maltese entry will also be chosen.

In Greece, Klavdia was wisely chosen with ‘Asteromata’ to represent the country in Basel. It’s a flawlessly sung ethno ballad which could do with a more compelling visual presentation. Understandably, a swiftly drawn up national final performance was missing that.

In Lithuania, Katarsis’s song ‘Tavo Akys’ is currently in pole position for the win there and this would make a hugely welcome addition to the ESC 2025 field.

Slovenia’s Klemen Slakonja will be himself for once performing ‘How Much Time Do We Have Left’. It’s a highly respectable ballad though the upside down moment, presumably aiming to visualise an hour glass, needs a lot of work for viewers to get the association with the song’s lyrics.

Melody will represent Spain with ‘Esa Diva’. This is a classic, cabaret-style Spanish entry and as such may struggle to gain much traction come the Saturday night in Basel.

Luxembourg has better prospects with Laura Thorn’s ‘La Poupee Monte Le Son’ which is a tribute and modern re-imagining of France Gall’s 1965 winner for the country. It will engender nostalgia among fans and there is a lot to like about Laura’s cute live performance, as much as she needs backing vocal assistance.

Albania and Montenegro have chosen respectable entries. Albania has enjoyed better luck drawn in the second half of semi-final 1, with Montenegro in the first half of semi-final 2.

The 3-piece male rock band Mamagama will represent Azerbaijan with a track titled ‘Shine’, and we still have plenty more national qualifiers, artist reveals and song releases to come.

The ESC 2025 subscription is open. Usual price of £80. Last year it forged a profit of +55.55pts. In 2023 it made a profit of +67pts.

Early subscribers have already enjoyed bountiful profit emanating from the Golden Globes and the Grammys, with Michaela Strachan advised at 12-1 to win Dancing On Ice 2025 and now a best-priced 5-4.

At this stage of the Eurovision season, every day brings new intel and you need to stay firmly on top of things to take advantage on Betfair. Imagine, if you will, a vast evidence board, and an investigation team slowly piecing together the ESC puzzle, seeking to identify this year’s prime suspects.

In true value-seeking style, we will take the plunge shortly and pick some big-priced selection(s) for ESC 2025, with bookmakers starting to issue each-way prices, so don’t miss out.

Things are about to get very interesting. Subscription link below and top left on the home page.