Value Is Everything

May 1, 2025 by Rob

To borrow from WW1 military phraseology, in a very short while, serious Eurovision traders will be commanded to ‘go over the top’ – leave the trenches and bravely charge into No Man’s Land to confront the enemy which, in terms of Betfair Exchange positions, equates to greens seeking to defeat the dark forces of the red army.

Five months of analysis and position building will reach its conclusion. Personally speaking, this will be a 15th year of Eurovision trading (not including 2020). Over that period, many useful lessons have been learnt. None more so than the pivotal betting concept of ‘value’.

Last year, Norway was trading at 1.07 to qualify from semi 2. That looked way too short and worth laying. As it turned out, it finished 10th, creeping through to the grand final by 5pts. It was a case of close but no cigar for layers who lost their money.

Nonetheless, it was a great value bet and Norway, understandably, went on to finish last in the grand final, which proved to be a great value back at 50-1.

This is something often lost on Eurovision gamblers. The concept of a good value loser, be it a back or a lay, but identifying value needs to be the cornerstone of your Betfair Exchange trading strategy if you are seeking to forge a long-term profit.

A second crucial element to bear in mind, associated with value, is that fan favourites can often under-perform in the Contest. This simple fact seems to get neglected every year. Just look at Norway in 2024.

While it is easy to attach major significance to fan polls they are, in truth, only a small piece of the puzzle. Semi-finals decided by 100% televote do give the fan community a greater say on the qualification picture, but a tidal wave of casual voters, often first time viewers on the Saturday night, combined with the opinion of music professionals who sit on national juries, shift the balance of power in the grand final.

During this quiet period leading up to the start of first rehearsals, even quieter without Eurojury results to pore over this year, we have seen the Swedish price drop lower and lower. Only a month ago it was trading at 3.4. Today it resides around 2. How is this justified given the lack of significant additional intel we have gained in the last four weeks?

You can point to unconvincing live performances by Austria’s JJ encouraging Swedish backers but can anyone seriously suggest 2 represents a value ‘back’ price heading into the rehearsal period? This is getting close to the same odds Sweden was trading at two years ago, and there have to be greater doubts attached when comparing Kaj’s winning chance to Loreen’s in 2023.

We know what we are going to get from Kaj. They are an assured and experienced band. There are no live performance concerns, and aside from a few tweaks due to Eurovision staging rules, it will be very similar to what we saw at Melodifestivalen.

No matter the professionalism Kaj bring to the stage, there is scope for juries to be punitive assessing what is, fundamentally, a comedy song in the case of ‘Bara bada bastu’. There has to be a potentially damaging jury ceiling in play with Sweden this year, and that ceiling could easily end up in the same ballpark as Kaarija two years ago (150pts). That, alone, highlights its vulnerability.

Not only that but there is a chance for Sweden’s main market rivals to step up their game. We know how much live staging and performance can elevate songs and Austria, for all its transparent flaws, is going to offer up ‘never seen before’ staging.

Of course, these kind of hyperbolic statements can often go on to prove to be empty PR guff but there is room for Austria to impress. This is also true of Sweden’s other three main market rivals in France, Israel and Netherlands, and there is always the possibility of something to come out of left field and challenge for the win.

Very few saw ‘Fuego’ coming in 2018 and 2014 remains the ultimate year of the dark horse. So, Sweden a value back at 2 as of today? That would be a ‘no’ here. A value lay at 2? That would be a unanimous ‘yes’.

Looking at the semi-final qualification picture, you need to be on the look out for value odds-on lays in particular, or value backs at odds against, because it is very rare indeed for the qualification markets to be operating at 100% market efficiency.

This year’s semi 1 has settled on ten odds-on qualification good things, the greatest uncertainty surrounding San Marino trading around 1.57, and Belgium at 1.63. Breathing down their necks and considered their main competition are all of Azerbaijan, Iceland and Slovenia. Value lays, value backs? Something is likely to give.

Semi two has a different feel with eight perceived qualification locks trading around 1.3 or lower. Then it’s Serbia and Luxembourg considered marginally more likely to qualify compared to Ireland and Denmark. And both Latvia and Armenia have been attracting money to qualify as well.

It definitely feels like a semi-final more ‘borderline qualifier’ in nature. It will likely be fine margins between 8th and 12th, and there lies the window to qualification trading profit unless you’re prepared to invest thousands of pounds on perceived qualification certainties trading at very short, odds-on prices. That will always be viewed here as the fast route to the poor house.

The action in Basel will get underway on Saturday and as much as excitement has been quelled due to the EBU’s decision to take rehearsals behind closed doors, it remains the two-week period of the TV betting year most anticipated.

Sat in the press centre on-site, putting together daily reports over the rehearsal fortnight was, once upon a time, an annual highlight, and the centrepiece of coverage this site provides.

Sadly, we are now hamstrung due to the rehearsal black out, so there will only be three more articles upcoming covering Eurovision 2025, previewing the two semi-finals and the grand final.

So please check back on Tuesday May 13 when coverage will commence with the full semi-final one verdict. What both Matt and myself will always endeavour to do is flag up what we perceive to be value investments.