What Lies Ahead

Jan 29, 2020 by Rob

Eurovision 2020 season is already in full swing with the Albanian entry first to be selected, and a revamped version with English lyrics being promised.

Various competing artists and songs have been revealed, some national qualifiers are in progress, and some big ones will be joining the fray shortly.

It always feels like the official start of ESC season when we have the allocation draw for the two semi-finals which took place at Rotterdam’s City Hall yesterday.

There are 17 countries in semi 1 this year; 18 in semi 2. At first glance, semi 1 looks the more competitive affair despite, on paper, being easier to qualify from given it involves 1 less nation.

Italy, Germany and The Netherlands will be voting in semi 1; France, UK and Spain in semi 2. Already things look a little tough for Ireland, drawn into the first half of semi 1, and no UK to rely on for points.

We will also hear this year’s Spanish entry tomorrow – Blas Cantó’s ‘Universe’ – which is due to drop at 10am C.E.T..

The Swedish qualifier, Melodifestivalen, is always the subject of intense interest, and gets started on Saturday with semi-final 1. Pre-lives, UK bookmakers believe Felix Sandman, who performs ‘Boys With Emotions’ from the pimp slot on Saturday, is the likeliest winner, followed by Hanna Ferm, singing ‘Brave’, and who has been given the pimp slot in the 4th and last semi-final.

Sandman finished runner-up in Melodifestivalen 2018, while Hanna was 3rd last year, as part of a duet with Liamoo, so the bookies have applied recent MF form and running order favour in forming their tissue.

ESC fans will have spotted Victor Crone’s name in this year’s field as he finished 20th in last year’s Eurovision grand final representing Estonia. Victor will compete in the 4th semi-final. And also the returning Robin Bengtsson, who finished 5th for Sweden at ESC 2017, and who will perform in Saturday’s first semi-final.

Next week we should find out this year’s Czech Republic entry, slated for February 3. We will also see the Sanremo Festival 2020 commence, the climax happening very late on the Saturday (February 8) when we should discover this year’s Italian artist and song. Italy has proved popular on Betfair in early Exchange trading, matched for decent amounts as low as 8.8 on the Outright.

Italy has recent solid ESC form having finished in 2nd place last year, and 5th the year before. Francesco Gabbani, who finished 6th at ESC 2017, and Raphael Gualazzi, ESC runner-up in 2011, are among this year’s Sanremo field so Italy backers are drawing positives from all of this.

On February 8 we will also discover this year’s Australian artist and song, following the ‘Australia Decides’ competition, and Latvia’s too with Supernova happening that evening. This is the first of the traditional series of hectic Saturdays that leave ESC followers in a fraught state trying to follow all the action around Europe, plate-spinning live feeds using a tv, laptop, and smartphone.

It’s a time of year which can put a strain both on your ISP’s bandwidth, and relationships, especially if you’re sharing the living room with a person who isn’t an ESC fan and would rather be watching something on Netflix. And it’s never easy to politely decline that big social engagement while trying to explain the crucial importance of staying in to follow the Belarusian national final on the same night.

The full ESC 2020 calendar, based on all known information as of today, can be found here. Things are about to get much more lively on the Betfair exchange as liquidity ramps up.

The ESC 2020 subscription is now open and a link can be found below, and at the top of the lefthand sidebar on the home page. By signing up you will benefit not only from betting analysis during the current qualifier season, but also during the key rehearsal period in Rotterdam.

As long-standing Eurovision traders will appreciate, 1st rehearsals can be a complete game-changer and lead to volatile betting movements. In the heat of battle, allow me to be a cool, calm head in the press centre, steering you through the betting hysteria that invariably ensues, and identifying the value opportunities among the vast array of ESC markets.

Last year in Tel Aviv, for example, we witnessed dramatic plunges on France, Australia and Azerbaijan following 1st rehearsals. My advice to subscribers was these were all false gambles, offering the chance to lay them all short and help increase your Betfair book equity, as I remained steadfast in my view The Netherlands was the nation to beat.

In the last 6 years the ESC subscription betting analysis has produced a profit of over +300pts to a 1pt level stake. Recent highlights have included advising The Netherlands last year pre-lives at 16-1, Portugal at 16-1 in 2017 and Ukraine as big as 25-1 in 2016.

This will be my 11th year of trading Eurovision seriously, every year brings something new, and it always offers the chance of making a tidy profit.

As a subscriber, as soon as the first betting opportunity arises on the Outright this year, through until the ESC 2020 grand final on May 16, you will receive exclusive investment advice via email. Grab a piece of the action by clicking on the link below.