Who See The Qualification Value

Apr 9, 2013 by Rob

Having been busy over the last week or so listening to the 2 semi-finals in running order, this has sparked some thoughts over which entries come out of it well, and which less so, but with the first semi only 5 weeks away, this year’s qualification picture remains shrouded in mystery.

Despite the smaller size of this year’s semi-finals there look to be more borderline entries than usual this year. Both semis are shaping up to be a bit of a minefield and this in itself is reason enough to seek the value among the bigger priced nations in the qualification market.

It only requires a quick look back at recent ESC semi-finals to see the fine margins that can be involved when it comes to the points differential between qualification and non-qualification.

In semi 2 last year, for instance, Norway’s Tooji (Stay) snuck in in 10th place only on count back, ahead of poor, lonely Sofi Marinova (Love Unlimited) for Bulgaria, with both nations tied on 45. Norway was considered something of a qualifying good thing while few had given Sofi any chance whatsoever.

In semi 1 in 2011, Anna Rossinelli (In Love For A While) for Switzerland finished 10th with 55pts, with Malta (Glen Vela, One Life) in 11th and Armenia (Emmy, Boom Boom) 12th, both only 1pt behind. In semi 2 that year Belgium (Witloof Bay, With Love Baby) – another widely overlooked entry – lost out by only 1pt to Moldova (Zdob si Zdub, So Lucky) for 10th place.

This is a little unnerving recalling having backed Moldova quite heavily for qualification in 2011. And having also backed Hungary to qualify from semi 1 last year – where it managed 10th place, only 7pts ahead of 11th – along with Macedonia in semi 2 – 9th place, 8pts clear of Norway and Bulgaria – they, again, were rather too close for comfort.

This is the long-standing dilemma for ESC punters seeking more generous qualification/non-qualification prices – you are almost guaranteed to be involving yourself in these close leaderboard scenarios. And the often very small points differences between a winning qualification punt and a losing one will likely rest on some extremely difficult to predict jury subjectivity. A subjectivity which is going to come under greater scrutiny this year courtesy of the new scoring system.

In semi 1, if having to call the likely qualifiers as of today, we could only come up with 6: Serbia, Russia, Ukraine, Denmark, Netherlands, Belarus. And even then there is a slight doubt regarding Alyona’s vocal for Belarus. The strange thing about this semi is, we can easily give a chance to the remaining 10 nations.

There is a sense the first 4 songs in this semi are all vulnerable, given the strong run of solo females from 5-8. However, it is also noticeable how Slovenia breathes life into this semi as the first properly uptempo number, arriving in the 3 slot. It is likely to be very well sung by the accomplished Hannah Mancini, and early clips of the staging of ‘Straight Into Love’ look promising.

Natalia Kelly of Austria has questions to answer regarding her live abilities, while Estonia comes across as a little too meandering and ponderous, regardless of the new, improved version. Birgit has a good voice but the a capella moment that has been added to her song sounded rather odd on first listen. Given their early running order positions and the intense solo female competition in this semi, both of these look more likely non-qualifiers at this early stage.

Croatia might well prove catnip for juries and the tenors who form Klapa s Mora certainly have a USP which could work in their favour, but the composition of this semi potentially plays into the hands of the uptempo songs even more. Lithuania, Moldova and Cyprus are certainly all in danger of being eclipsed in the 2nd half of semi 1 falling as they do between the much livelier efforts from Montenegro, Belarus, Ireland and Belgium.

There are still some significant doubts for us over Aliona Moon’s vocal. Thanks to Tim B for posting a live clip of her singing ‘O Mie’ in Romanian, which can be viewed here. She is certainly not a vocal powerhouse. It sounds like she is playing it safe and not pushing the higher register, where she appeared to struggle in the Moldovan final. If it comes down to vocal prowess in rating the solo females in this semi she could fall behind the likes of Birgit, Dina Garipova, Zlata Ognevich, Anouk and Despina Olympiou.

Live footage suggests Despina is a competent vocalist and she is singing the type of ballad that in usual circumstances you would have down as a big jury hit. Cyprus also has a good late draw in 14. So when we see Austria priced at 4-6 and Estonia at 11-10 to qualify, Cyprus looks good value in comparison at 4.0 to qualify with Unibet, and worth a small investment. Cyprus’s lack of voting power in this semi tempers optimism.

Belgium has certainly gone up in our estimations after listening to it in its running order position of 15 though Roberto Bellarosa, much like Ireland’s Ryan Dolan, has some serious questions to answer regarding his live vocal prowess based on YouTube footage we have seen. Of course, backing singers can cover a multitude of sins and only the rehearsal period will tell us more.

If Montenegro can bring ‘Igranka’ to life on stage, it will be highly distinctive in getting the 2nd half of this semi underway. Who See are an established hip-hop duo who should be able to perform this song with requisite professionalism. Nina Zizic is potentially the biggest plus for this song’s chances as she appears to have a very decent live vocal, again based on YouTube footage.

Confronted by entries that look like borderline qualifiers, our advice would always be to take the value option. If you have analyzed things correctly and it really is very close to a 50/50 call, then the value has to reside in anything above Evens, either on the ‘to qualify’ or ‘not to qualify’ side. And the higher the odds are available above Evens, the more your eyes should light up as a value seeker IF you can make a strong case for such entries.

So, our early advice for semi 1 would also be to back Montenegro at 4.7 to qualify with Unibet. Slovenia to qualify at 3.2 with both bwin and Unibet, Moldova at 2.6 not to qualify with Unibet, and Austria not to qualify at 2.4 with Unibet.

If you correctly pinpoint the value, the market will move in your favour on Betfair, and this opens up the possibility to lay your backs for qualification at shorter prices, and back your lays for qualification (a qualification lay on Betfair being the equivalent of a ‘not to qualify’ bet on the high street) at bigger prices. And in these situations you can end up locking in a guaranteed profit regardless of whether the nation in question qualifies or not.

The switch from fractional to decimal prices can be quite confusing, as can figuring out what the equivalent lay price is on Betfair in relation to the ‘not to qualify’ odds quoted on the high street. Suffice to say, backing Moldova at 2.6 not to qualify is the same as laying Moldova to qualify at roughly 1.62 on Betfair. Backing Austria at 2.4 not to qualify is the same as laying Austria to qualify at roughly 1.71 on Betfair.

All of the above is very much an initial assessment of semi 1 based on what we know as of today and opinions will no doubt change as we learn more. Talking of which, this weekend we will be attending the Amsterdam ESC Concert and seeing 26 of this year’s entries perform live. Hopefully this will provide further pointers. A report will follow early next week, as will an analysis of the semi 2 qualification value.

Do you agree with the early value picks as outlined above? Can you see one of Serbia, Ukraine, Russia, Denmark, Belarus or Netherlands being a shock non-qualifier? Please do drop us a line with your semi 1 qualification thoughts below.