Her name is Rio

Sep 24, 2009 by Rob

The IOC gathers in Copenhagen on 2^nd October to vote for the city to stage the 2016 Olympic Games. The battle to host the Games has changed dramatically from 30 years ago when Los Angeles was the only city to bid for the 1984 Games. Now it is a multi-billion pound contest with the world’s major cities vying to outdo each other.

The key to picking the winner is to try and read the minds of the electorate – in this case, the IOC’s quirky mixture of royals, politicians, businessmen, sports administrators and former athletes.

There is scope for a decent-priced winner in this market, given that neither of the two most recent victors – Sochi (2014) and London (2012) – were the favourites. Indeed, Sochi was the 7/2 outsider of three while London pipped long-time ante-post favourite Paris in what almost became a personal grudge match between then PM Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac.

Chicago is the odds-on favourite which means we need to consider if there is a viable alternative to take on the ‘Windy City’ – hometown, of course, to the US President. Barack Obama has rather surprisingly said he won’t be in Copenhagen pressing the flesh, which may prove to be a major negative along with the ongoing row between the IOC and the United States Olympic Committee over the latter proposing to set up its own TV channel. There is also, we hardly need mention, anti-American sentiment in some parts of the world, notably the Middle East.

Madrid is quite rightly the market outsider. With London hosting the Games in 2012 there is almost no chance of a European city winning again in 2016, despite the powerful Spanish-speaking bloc vote within the IOC.

Tokyo will garner some support from Asian IOC members but it has held the Games before (1964) and the time zone makes it uncomfortable for US network NBC, who effectively bankroll the Olympics.

That brings us to the colourful and charismatic Brazilian playground city of Rio. South America (like Africa) has never hosted the Olympics, Mexico City being the closest they have come, and the Spanish/Latin American IOC members will be sure to support Rio once Madrid is eliminated. And this recent story suggests Rio is already primed to secure plenty of votes: http://bit.ly/zQQ5F

When it comes to selecting Olympic host cities, the IOC likes to be contrary and doesn’t like to be told what to do or vote for the perceived front-runner. It seems to delight in choosing a slightly leftfield candidate that may not have the ‘solid’ credentials of Paris (2012) or Chicago but has a bid with vision and a unique selling point.

So long as it avoids finishing bottom in the first round with the Spanish vote split, Rio is a must bet at 3/1 with Betfred. At the very least the Brazilian city should make a final shoot-out with Chicago, allowing you to lay off your stake for a guaranteed profit, but we would recommend sticking to your guns and hoping for some samba celebrations on the beaches when the result is announced.