Kirsty Is Matt’s Only Threat

Jun 8, 2011 by

If you’ve followed our advice through this series of SYTYCD, you’ll be delighted to see Matt, Luke and Katie in the final. The one potential fly in the ointment is the fourth finalist, Kirsty, a dancer we never considered a genuine contender. On reflection, we under-estimated the old reality tv chestnut of a heart-rending back story, and its ability to engage a contestant with the audience.
As Nigel has kept stressing, this is the search for ‘Britain’s favourite dancer’ not Britain’s best dancer, and it is highly significant that Kirsty has never been in the dance-off. Matt hasn’t figured in the drop-zone either.
Ironically, Nige and his fellow panelists tried their best to dig a very large hole for Kirsty last weekend, as she was roundly slaughtered, but Beeb viewers chose to ignore their transparent ‘do not vote for Kirsty’ words, sending her through to the final.
It’ll be interesting to see how the panel decide to play it with Kirsty in this Saturday’s final. Finals of these shows are usually a time to compliment all the finalists, though they are guaranteed to compliment some more than others. It might aid Kirsty’s chances more if they decide to criticise her again, boosting her status as the hard-done-by underdog.
Pre-show we would certainly advise backing Kirsty to be Top Female at a best-priced 13-8 with William Hill. Katie has been in the dance-off twice, and if the same voting pattern continues, Kirsty WILL finish higher than Katie. It will take some Cowell-esque pimping of Katie – possibly incorporating VT of her cleaning up sea birds following oil spills – for her to out-poll Kirsty.
It’s a similar story with Luke’s prospects of defeating Matt. Luke has also featured in the dance-off twice and as much as we would love to see him win – having flagged him up at 10-1 to be Top Male and 20-1 e/w on the Outright – it’s going to be very difficult for him, and those who took those prices will likely have to settle for a return on the place portion of the Outright bet.
Matt (advised at 13-2) would appear to be the winner-in-waiting having sailed through the competition and rarely, if ever, criticised by the panel. He ticks a lot of the Beeb’s middle England boxes, and given a female winner in 2010, and this already being announced as the last series of the UK version of SYTYCD, it’s possibly another positive for him that they might prefer to have a male winner this year, to even things up.
A popular male on these shows you would assume, more times than most, to be outpolling a popular female. Last year, Tommy struggled to receive public support throughout the series whereas Charlie always had a far more solid vote. The same cannot be said about Matt in relation to Kirsty.
As of now, however, we do not know for certain that Matt is comfortably outpolling Kirsty, and we do not know how Nigel and his cohorts will decide to play it with their final night pimping.
So it would be prudent, if only as a cover bet, to also take the 10-1 with Victor Chandler on Kirsty on the Outright, as if there is a shock it’ll be this sweet, partially deaf girl finishing first ahead of Matt in second. And it certainly wouldn’t be difficult for the Beeb to big up her back story, and the obstacles she has had to overcome, which would be guaranteed to boost her vote further.
Rob Furber

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