Irish Stout

Dec 16, 2025 by Rob

It’s been the liveliest of SPOTY years. At the start of 2025 Luke Littler was being matched below 2.5 following his PDC World Darts Championship win. Second in SPOTY 2024 behind Keely Hodgkinson, ‘the Nuke’ was still shy of his 18th birthday when he won his first world title in January.

Littler was eclipsed at the top of the market by Rory McIlroy after he achieved a career grand slam in winning the US Masters in April, in a dramatic, sudden-death play-off vs Justin Rose.

McIlroy would then be usurped by Lioness Chloe Kelly following her winning penalty kick in the Euros final vs Spain, with Kelly matched as low as 1.6.

There was always an element of doubt regarding Kelly given the possibility of goalkeeper Hannah Hampton also making the shortlist. And this is exactly how it has played out among a shortlist of six.

Lando Norris won a first F1 world title earlier this month, holding off Max Verstappen by 2pts, the championship going down to the last race in Abu Dhabi. It is handy timing SPOTY-wise, and some unease has entered the market with McIlroy drifting to 1.7 (from a low of 1.55) and Norris backed down to 4.8.

The reason for this is, F1 historically has had the measure of golf. Back in 2014, McIlroy was trading a very short, odds-on price on the night of the SPOTY award, only to get beaten comfortably by Lewis Hamilton.

Lewis Hamilton: 209,920 – WINNER
Rory McIlroy: 123,745 – 2ND

McIlroy won the Open and the US PGA that year at the age of 25; Hamilton was winning his second world title. When Hamilton won his first F1 title in 2008, he came second in SPOTY beaten comfortably by Chris Hoy.

Chris Hoy: 283,630 – WINNER
Lewis Hamilton: 163,864 – 2ND

Hamilton went on to win a second SPOTY trophy in 2020 after landing his seventh world title, equalling Michael Schumacher as the most successful F1 driver in history.

The big question is, does Norris offer as much vote motivation as Hamilton did in those past SPOTYs given he is at the start of his F1 career, still only 26? And conversely, is there greater motivation now for the wider sporting audience to recognise McIlroy’s achievements this year? There’s a strong sense McIlroy has earned his stripes, and Norris hasn’t.

SPOTY is also a very different beast now compared to its glory years. Buried away on a Thursday evening the voting figures will be way down compared to its must-see, Sunday night, pre-Christmas status of yore.

We have had four female winners on the trot and two Lionesses winning in the last three years. A peak live audience of 12.2 million watched the Lionesses dramatic Euros final win vs Spain, and that alone highlights the increasing profile of the England women’s football team.

There is always context that needs to be applied to SPOTY. In 2022, Beth Mead beat Ben Stokes (who had previously won in 2019); Mary Earps beat Stuart Broad in 2023. Sadly, we are no longer provided with the voting figures.

It feels like we have reached a moment when the much-maligned award needs to try and re-establish itself as a genuine barometer of sporting achievement across the year.

An average audience of just 2.9m people tuned into SPOTY in 2023, when it aired on a Tuesday night, and when it was humiliatingly beaten in the ratings by Emmerdale, showing how far it has fallen in the nation’s conscience.

You’d imagine Kelly and Hampton will be featured in the same slot. The bookies think the Lionesses will also be picking up the Team of the Year award, William Hill pricing them at 2-9 (European Ryder Cup team 4-1, England Women’s Rugby Union team 7-1).

The ratings drop also makes it easier for the BBC to stage manage the result. As much as McIlroy looks the most deserving winner it’s hard to feel confident he will win, and Norris looks the main threat given the track record of F1 fans being keen to lodge a vote for their heroes when it comes to SPOTY.

It would also be foolish to completely write off the possibility of another Lioness win given their recent SPOTY success. Kelly’s profile appears to give her a voting edge over Hampton, but a split vote will hurt both.

McIlroy has said he will be attending Thursday evening’s ceremony. Luke Littler will not.

It’s a very ticklish one to call with any confidence but the expectation is, Rory will earn the biggest fanfare on the night and a strong Northern Irish vote should see him home, most likely fending off Norris in second and Kelly in third.