Lukie-Likie

Dec 11, 2024 by Rob

The shortlist of six contenders for SPOTY 2024 was revealed on Monday and this is probably the most competitive award we’ve had since Mo Farah won in 2017, famously defeating heavy odds-on favourite Anthony Joshua, who ended up missing the podium altogether, finishing in fourth place.

Keely Hodgkinson has been trading at a very short odds-on price for the last few months. Lando Norris came with a late run but as soon as his F1 world title bid was ended by Verstappen, Hodgkinson was matched as low as 1.14.

Her credentials are there for all to see. She is the new star of British athletics after winning GB’s only gold medal in track & field at the Summer Olympics in Paris.

The BBC’s end of Games montage was even bookended by footage of Keely as a young girl, to her taking 800 metres gold. If there was ever a statement of intent regarding Keely’s SPOTY status in the BBC’s eyes this year then this was it:

But the inclusion of teenage darts sensation, Luke Littler, on the shortlist has suddenly made things a lot more interesting, the money understandably coming for Littler and Hodgkinson on the drift, at time of writing trading at 1.4 on Betfair. Littler just missed out on the world title in January but proceeded to put in an astonishing season.

The BBC, as expected, also has Littler on the shortlist for Young SPOTY, which he will surely take. Does it think this will cunningly dampen support for Littler in the main award? He’ll probably be on early in the running order, when that Young SPOTY presentation may take place.

One would expect Hodgkinson to earn pimp treatment but the issue here is, vote motivation. Jess Ennis, even at the height of her heptathlon fame and success, failed to win SPOTY on numerous occasions. Still only 22, Hodgkinson is at the start of her athletics career and hasn’t yet forged a strong emotional connection with the GBP.

Littler would appear to have the most partisan fan base among the six contenders. The world darts championship starts on Sunday which is potentially handy timing assuming there’s a call to arms for darts fans in attendance to support Littler.

SPOTY is now on a Tuesday evening and voting figures must be at an all-time low. Only 2.9 million viewers watched the show last year, compared to 5.48 million in 2017, when the show was in its traditional Sunday evening slot.

Engagement is much, much lower, and it might only take around 60k votes to win, a far cry from Muzza winning SPOTY 2013 with over 400K votes, and over 1.6 million votes cast in 2012, London’s Olympic year.

Under these low voting total conditions, the BBC may think it can confidently stage manage a win for Keely Hodgkinson on the night but it’s going to require a big effort to get viewers fully on board.

17-year old Littler’s meteoric rise to the pinnacle of world darts feels like it has captured the public’s imagination, and firmly thrust him into the mainstream, with him even making an appearance on The Jonathan Ross Show earlier in the year.

Heading towards Tuesday night, there is a sense the odds should be much closer between the two, with various social media measures highlighting Littler’s popularity.

The battle for third place is also a lively affair. Alex Yee won his triathlon gold medal in incredibly dramatic fashion, and he will earn votes for this reason alone.

Joe Root has become England’s all-time highest scoring test batsman, is adored by fans, and there is a strong affinity between test cricket and the BBC viewership.

Jude Bellingham and Sarah Storey complete the list but look unlikely to get on the podium.

Root looks the value bet in the w/o Hodgkinson and Littler market, and Littler is undoubtedly the value to upset the applecart by landing the main prize.