Acid Test for Sophie

Oct 10, 2013 by

Acid Test for Sophie

Disappointingly, no firms are offering Strictly points markets this week. And there doesn’t look to be any stand-out value knocking around in elimination & bottom 2 markets.

Julien makes little appeal at odds-on to be next eliminated. He isn’t the sort of character who encourages any significant sympathy bounce but there is no way of knowing how TPTB decide to play it with him. All it will need is a late slot and a small judges’ ramp on the back of a reasonably entertaining jive and he could escape.

Vanessa has looked all at sea attempting the tango in the training room, but she knows how to play the game and throwing in the right sort of banter post-dance might be enough to help save her.

The 4 to consider at bigger prices for a surprise b2 appearance look to be Patrick, Deborah, Mark and Rachel.

Patrick looks like he will more likely be scored highly enough in the foxtrot to escape the bottom 2. The same applies to Deborah who has a crowd-pleasing tune for her quickstep. It is going to be tight in the middle of the leaderboard and there could be plenty of ties with a good few of this week’s dances appearing to have the potential to hit within the 24-26 region. The more ties there are above, the more chance the bottom 2 or 3 have of escaping.

Two contestants who could easily fall below Patrick and Deborah on the leaderboard are Rachel, who doesn’t look like pulling off much of a CCC, and Ben, whose rumba is likely to be equally poor. You would fancy Ben to poll highly enough to be safe; there has to be more uncertainty regarding Rachel’s public vote. Fiona and Anton should put in a decent waltz and look much safer.

With Dave having a comedy paso, likely to be on late in the running order, this could condemn similar ‘entertainer’ Mark to an early slot. Mark would appear to be doing a strait-laced American Smooth which will not rely on his acting. As such, it could be extremely forgettable.

It would come as no surprise if it ends up a Julien/Vanessa bottom 2 but at the prices it is probably worth a small, speculative wager on Mark to land in the bottom 2 at 10-1 with Ladbrokes.

In the Outright, Sophie has been backed into 2-1 favourite and it is clear she is a strong contender, especially she now has that outstanding and entertaining Charleston to call upon if she makes the final:

You also sense that among the women in this year’s field at the head of the market she is probably the one female voters sat at home will find it hardest to dislike. But she still has to prove herself in fast Latin and her samba training this week has been far from convincing.

With Natalie having a promising looking rumba, and Abbey a decent jive, not to mention Susanna’s waltz and Ashley’s samba which both look potentially meritorious, Sophie could well drift after tomorrow night. If you haven’t done so already, she is certainly worth getting in the green, as she looks like one of only 5 potential winners in this series. But price-wise it may pay to wait until the Betfair market re-opens after Sunday evening’s result show.

If some points markets are released before Saturday night, look out for analysis in the Comments section below. Here are this week’s dances in full.

Ashley & Ola – Samba to ‘Love Is In The Air’ by John Paul Young.
Patrick & Anya – Foxtrot to Nat King Cole’s ‘Let There Be Love’.
Abbey & Alijaz – Jive to the Beatles’ ‘Can’t Buy Me Love’.
Rachel & Pasha – Cha Cha Cha to ‘When Love Takes Over’ by David Guetta feat. Kelly Rowland.
Dave & Karen – Paso Doble to Meat Loaf’s ‘I Would Do Anything For Love (But I Won’t Do That)’.
Fiona & Anton – Waltz to Pat Boone’s ‘True Love’.
Vanessa & James – Tango to ‘Lay All Your Love On Me’ by ABBA.
Julien & Janette – Jive to the Blues Brothers’ ‘Everybody Needs Somebody To Love’.
Deborah & Robin – Quickstep to Jackie Wilson’s ‘Higher and Higher’.
Sophie & Brendan – Samba to Lionel Richie’s ‘All Night Long’.
Mark & Iveta – American Smooth to ‘It Must Be Love’ by Madness.
Ben & Kristina – Rumba to ‘To Make You Feel My Love’ by Adele.
Susanna & Kevin – Waltz to John Denver’s ‘Annie’s Song’.
Natalie & Artem – Rumba to Rihanna’s ‘Love The Way You Lie’.

17 Comments

  1. Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Rob,

    I hadn’t considered that angle on Mark. Yes, that 10/1 for Mark could look great value. I have faith in Iveta’s decision-making as much as I do Mark’s ability, so overlooked them completely for B2. When I saw they were dancing to the Madness version, I imagined them costumed with a nod to that group’s look. I do hope they don’t go the strait-laced route (I mean: I’ve backed Mark for top male!)

    I also think there’s a possibility Rachel could be in a bit of bother.

    I hope you’re right about Sophie drifting in the market some point soon, because I want to have a win on her for the outright but find the 2/1 on offer a bit tight and narrow.

    • Rob

      Hi Guildo,
      It’s one of those weeks where my instinct is to try & find someone at a bigger price who might fall into the bottom 2, with the nagging feeling it will more likely go to form & Julien and Vanessa end up in the dance off.

      Rachel is certainly worth considering at 20-1 for b2 but maybe after her mauling last week the judges will be a bit more positive & focus on her improvement.

      I have doubts Sophie’s samba will be much cop but can also envisage the judges not being especially critical of her. The show clearly has it in mind for a female winner this year & they will likely already be looking at last week’s public vote – which I imagine Sophie topped – & be thinking they’ll want to protect one of their prize females.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Hi again Rob,

        Just watching It Takes Two on catch-up and see what you mean re Mark. I audibly groaned when Iveta said ‘we want to open a different side of Mark’. 🙁

        Yeesh.

  2. hemsby

    Agree with your sentiments Rob that it’s a difficult week to find any semblance of B2/Elimination value.

    The training footage of Mark didn’t look too promising,and his comedy vote could definitely be usurped by Dave this week.Personally I’m hoping that the goodwill he has built in the last 2 weeks will see him safe if he’s low on the Leaderboard.

    Agree with your sentiments that Julien will struggle for any “bounce” and his training footage looked awful.Vanessa’s training clip showed her routine to be much more intricate than her previous dances so could go either way…..she could of course get praised for trying a higher degree of difficulty even if the routine goes pear-shaped.

    I’ve had a small stab at Vanessa to be eliminated,although with no real confidence.A week to keep stakes small I think.

  3. Henry VIII

    Sophie is now back to favourite after a slight drift and I agree with all the reservations about her price. We haven’t seen any hip swaying yet. We saw some from Natalie in her Rumba training.

  4. Rob

    WH have a Highest Scorer market but I’m not seeing anything particularly stand-out there. Prices look about right. Might be tempted by Susanna at 6s – she should be due a late-ish slot after being 1st up last week & waltz is easy to score highly in.

  5. Rob

    Ladbrokes have some series h2h markets up.
    4-11 Abbey vs Rachel looks like buying money.

  6. Indeed it is. First whiff of three-figures at the shop will surely set alarm bell ringing haha!

  7. Rob

    Possible pointer to r.o. on Strictly tonight, pics from rehearsal. Those who backed Nat Gumede at 9-4 to be top scorer will be hoping so:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/posts/Week-Three-Dress-Rehearsal

  8. Has that been accurate in the past?

    • Rob

      Yes, it was last week apparently & the 1st Friday show.

      • I’d say Fiona/Rachel might struggle then and perhaps Patrick. Vanessa might get a reprieve being that late in the order.

        • I think they’re burying Patrick. Followed by Dave’s comedy gold and the better ballroom dances.

          They did marked him too high though – 7s for a stumble?

  9. Rob

    Patrick will definitely slip down the old memory plughole after Dave’s magnificent display in the paso. Still 9-2 available Pat b2. 27 was an over-score but he still may not be safe.

  10. Rob

    As feared, & articulated in article, b2 went to form – Vanessa vs Julien. Vanessa gone.

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