Anita’s Time To Shine?
Strictly heads to Blackpool this weekend, always a feel-good show when we see plenty of score inflation and 10s usually handed out like confetti.
The 8th elimination market is looking something of a dead betting heat pre-show with Jamelia trading at a best price of 1-4 to be next to leave the show.
With Jeremy afforded the pimp slot last week, and talk of the elaborate production they had lined up for him at Blackpool, you got the impression the show was hoping he would escape the bottom 2, in which case Jamelia would be gone already.
As it turned out Jeremy ended up in the bottom 2 and the judges had to play it straight in saving Jamelia, which means she has now survived 4 dance-offs, a Strictly record.
Jamelia has a quickstep as does Kellie this week. Of the two, Jamelia arguably has the better song choice in ‘I’m A Believer’ compared to Kellie’s ‘Nine To Five’.
Jamelia and Kellie both danced samba last week and they also married up with waltzes the week before that, with Kellie getting the later running order slot on both occasions.
As a show of fairness you would have to expect Jamelia to be on later than Kellie in Blackpool, but this is still unlikely to be enough for Jamelia to escape the bottom 2.
In the last 3 weeks, Georgia has been on a big upward curve getting the highest series score of 39 for her Charleston last week, after a pimp slot samba the week before which landed her 35pts and second place on the judges’ leaderboard, and also topping the leaderboard the week before, Halloween Week, dancing the tango (35pts).
She has certainly been pushed big time by the producers enjoying running order slots of 9/11, 10/10 and 8/9. The law of averages suggests Georgia will be on early in Blackpool and her AS to Whitney Houston’s ‘I Have Nothing’ doesn’t leap off the page as a likely top scorer compared to some of her rivals’ song and dance choices tomorrow night.
Regarding Georgia she was advised in the ‘without Jay’ market at 9-4 last week, mainly as a cover for previous Top Female investment advice. She is now a best-priced 10-11 with Boylesports and Betfred in the ‘without Jay’ market and 4-6 to be Top Female.
This may end up looking something of an over-reaction and far too short after this weekend when we could see a levelling of the field and the likes of Katie, Anita and Helen potentially outshining Georgia.
It is also worth bearing in mind that if Georgia ends up dead-heating for second place with another female dancer, behind a male winner, you will be making yourself money on Georgia by laying her on Betfair below Evens for Top Female.
There is a school of thought Anita has been consistently underscored in this series, and it is a view shared here – certainly her show-opening quickstep last week (awarded 32) was worthy of at least 36.
Might the under-scoring be because Anita is unable to tour, or has she been put on a slow simmer setting ahead of a breakout dance for her? This question was posed before learning today Anita has been confirmed for the Strictly Tour next year, along with Georgia.
In comparison to Georgia, Anita has also endured a poor run of running order positions. Since week 3, Movie Week, when she was 13/14, her r.o.positions have been 1/13, 3/12, 4/11, 7/10 and 1/9.
Interestingly, she dances the paso at Blackpool, a dance that has top scored at Blackpool in the previous two years, after late running order slots. Last year, Pixie joint top-scored with 38 for her paso (7/9); the year before Susanna Reid joint top-scored for her paso (8/9), scoring 39.
If ever a contestant is ‘due’ a late running order position and a dance awarded some 10s, it has to be Anita dancing her paso to the stirring ‘Malaguena’ on Saturday and which has looked promising in training.
Two others who look most likely to be in the running for highest score on Saturday have to be Katie dancing an American Smooth, and Helen, dancing Charleston, which has top-scored on the show in the last two weeks and is consistently a dance that enjoys high scores when performed well.
With Georgia more likely to be on early dancing her AS, Katie should be in line for a late slot dancing hers, and at the ‘Home of Ballroom’ there would be no more fitting show-closer than Katie and Anton dancing to the classic ‘Ain’t That A Kick In The Head’.
Katie’s treatment at the hands of the judges last week felt a pivotal moment. Dancing rumba there was plenty of leeway for the judges to be harsh on her, as they had been over the previous 3 weeks, and maybe even try and manoeuvre her into the bottom 2. Instead, they were ample in their praise and scored her 31, Katie’s best score since her week 4, pimp-slotted VW.
This might suggest the show is happy for Katie to progress to the show’s latter stages and given her excellent polling in the first four weeks of this series (according to the Daily Star), they could be of the view it is better to cede to the public in this instance, with Katie potentially a feel-good finalist this year given Anton’s popularity and the fact he has never made the final.
Helen has consistently scored among the top 2 on the judges’ leaderboard throughout this series and early training footage indicates that her and Aljaz are set to produce a top notch Charleston to ‘Anything Goes’.
Jay has the salsa to ‘Cuba’ which is potentially another show-stopping routine. Salsa is, however, a tough dance to top score with. Peter should also produce a decent jive to ‘River Deep, Mountain High’ but on paper he looks one of the contestants less likely to top score this week.
Here is the full list of dances and songs this week:
Anita and Gleb will perform the Paso Doble to the dramatic ‘Malaguena’ by Connie Francis.
Georgia and Giovanni dance the American Smooth to the Whitney Houston power-ballad ‘I Have Nothing’.
Helen and Aljaž are going to Charleston to ‘Anything Goes’ from the musical of the same name.
Jamelia and Tristan Quickstep to 1960’s classic ‘I’m A Believer’ by The Monkees.
Jay and Aliona will Salsa to the disco-flavoured ‘Cuba’ by The Gibson Brothers.
Katie and Anton perform the American Smooth to Dean Martin’s ‘Ain’t That A Kick In The Head.
Kellie and Kevin will be Quickstepping to Dolly Parton’s ‘Nine To Five’.
Peter and Janette are Jiving to Tina Turner’s ‘River Deep, Mountain High’.
It is looking very difficult for Jamelia to survive this weekend. Of more interest is who might join her in the bottom 2 with Kellie looking most vulnerable at least pre-show.
In terms of highest scorer, it could go a number of ways but Anita, Katie and Helen look the three to focus on here with Anita looking most likely to produce a leaderboard-topping routine with Gleb.
Advised:
Anita – highest scorer – 4-1 – 2pt win – Paddy Power
Katie – highest scorer – 5-1 – 1pt win – Paddy Power
Helen – highest scorer – 4-1 – 1pt win – William Hill
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AT for Katie & Anton next week if they get through this weekend
Hi Rob. Thanks for the news update on the SCD Live Tour. Anita’s survival prospects over the next three weekends are suddenly looking a lot more secure! With Frankie, Georgia & Anita signed up, that leaves just one remaining female spot for either Helen, Katie, Kellie or Jamelia. My guess is that Helen will be given first refusal.
Regarding the weekly top score, here are my thoughts…
1) In the past two years at Blackpool, a total of seventeen 10’s have been awarded by the judges (7 from Bruno, 6 from Len, 4 from Darcey, and zero from Craig). This would suggest that a score of somewhere from 37 to 39 points will be required to come out on top this week.
2) In the past four series, from week 9 onwards, touring celebrities achieved the top score on 15.5 occasions, whereas non touring celebrities achieved the top score on 2.5 occasions. As I feel that Kellie, Jamelia and Peter are unlikely to tour, the odds are against any of them topping the leaderboard this week.
3) Only one male celebrity has ever scored higher than a 36 for the Salsa (Matt Di Angelo, 38 in series 5), so Jay has a tough challenge to score 37-39 this week.
4) I would not be surprised to see both Anita & Katie achieve personal bests on Saturday. However, as the two of them have only managed three nines between them this series, I wonder if they are more likely to receive 9’s rather than 10’s this week, even with the advantage of the pimp slot. Indeed, a 10 for Anton would be unprecedented!
5) As you mentioned, Georgia is likely to receive an early to middling slot this week. Another good score is probable, but it will be tough to match last week’s effort.
6) Helen is certainly the most consistent performer. In her past six dances, she has received seven 9’s, sixteen 8’s and one 7. If she performs at her usual high standard tomorrow, I believe the judges will reward her with her first 10’s of the series. My main concern for her, is that the judges might want to prevent the Charleston from receiving the top score for a third consecutive week.
7) One of the big unknowns this week, is the addition of backing dancers. This has the potential to strengthen some dances (eg, Caroline’s Charleston) and damage others (eg, Jake’s Argentine Tango).
So in summary, my inclination is to back Helen at 4/1 with Coral. She has been given a dance that scores well, is the celebrity least likely to make a mistake and is a prime candidate to receive some of the 10’s which are certain to be issued this week.
Thanks James. Anita on 3rd tonight which doesn’t look great for her highest scorer potential. She continues to have a shocking run of early r.o. positions. If we didn’t know she was going on the Tour you would conclude, ‘must be because she is unavailable for the tour’.
Paddy Power are offering 7/2 on any couple to score a 40 tonight. Much better value than Ladbrokes or William Hill who are offering 2/1.
I still think it might be too early for Craig to issue his first 10 of the series, but 7/2 does look a tempting price.
Thanks James. I spotted this earlier this afternoon. It was 9-2. I thought that was too big because it is esentially the odds on Craig producing a 10 tonight. 7-2 still a fair price.
Looks like get Peter night.
Advised:
Peter – next elim – 20-1 – 1pt win – Skybet
Jamelia vs Peter – Jamelia out
Robbed of a big-priced winner. One of those nights.
Hi Rob. Having watched the show, here are my initial thoughts.
1) Strange running order in tonight’s show, which affected the overall number of 10’s awarded. I feel that if Jay, Anita or Katie had danced 7th or 8th, they would have been awarded scores of 38 or 39.
2) Helen’s dance must have looked good in rehearsal, convincing the producers to schedule it 7th. On the night, it failed to live up to expectations, and paled in comparison to Peter and Georgia’s Charlestons.
3) Peter being in the dance off doesn’t necessarily mean his vote is weaker than previously thought. The final order of the judge’s leaderboard was similar to the predicament Jeremy faced last week, with probable high vote getters Jay & Katie providing road blocks to Peter being able to overtake Kellie & Anita on the overall leaderboard.
4) A couple of points can be worked out on last night’s public vote.
a) Helen received more votes than Jamelia.
b) Peter could have finished no higher than one place above Helen in the PV
5) I still find it difficult to believe that Peter is one of the lowest vote getters, so this week’s result suggests that Helen could well be in the middle of the pack in the PV, rather than bringing up the rear. My updated guess for the public vote ranges:
1st-2nd Jay
1st-3rd Katie
2nd-3rd Georgia
4th-5th Peter
4th-6th Helen
4th-7th Anita
5th-7th Kellie
6) Jamelia follows Anthony, Daniel & Kirsty in being eliminated after dancing 2nd in the running order.
Thanks for your insights as always James. I am feeling pretty hard done by regarding the main investment for Anita to top score.
For me, her paso was comfortably the stand-out dance of the night and a 40 would not have looked out of place.
Georgia’s routine certainly wasn’t worthy of a 38 for me but it continues the theme of Georgia being scored highly, seriously pimped by the judges, and yet again, enjoying a later running order position. That is 4 weeks in a row she has been in the last 3 in the running order.
Anita’s harsh treatment – continually being under-scored and in the first 4 to dance 4 out of the last 5 weeks – would make you think she definitely isn’t on the Strictly Tour, if we hadn’t heard already she is on the Tour.
I am starting to wonder if Georgia has been struggling on the pv.
It was unlucky not to land the 20-1 Peter to be next eliminated. This was amazing value that had to be pounced upon, esp. given Jamelia had beaten him by 2pts on the judges’ leaderboard.
It will be interesting to see if it’s the first decision to go to head judge Len. I predict it probably did. It was a night of near-misses on the betting front.
Grabbed a piece of Peter Rob and with the rumours of a shock eviction, almost booked a flight for some winter sun before the crushing news. Very unlucky mate but great tip and analysis as ever. Planning any I’m a Celebrity coverage?
Hi there. No IAC coverage, I’m afraid. Like Celeb BB it is far too fluid a situation for any informed analysis as the Outright shifts nightly.
fwiw I am against Vicky P atm and think Jorgie is looking the most likely winner atm. Jorgie is a sympathetic character compared to Vicky. She has vulnerability on her side.
Also think Susannah is massively over-priced atm. She has been coming across well as a mother figure in there, helping to support the likes of George and Jorgie.
I’ll be very interested to see that dance off, especially as Peter’s problem was as much the terrible choreography which you can’t correct in a dance off as well as his technique. Sounds like Jamelia may have got a rough decision. I decided to bring Anita to the outright win party at 16s once I saw she’s was going on tour. Surely she’s due a pimp spot sooner or later.
Strange how they all reversed their position bar Bruno in the dance-off. Just wonder whether, bad publicity of Ola spouting off about how the show is fixed, and Andre previously complaining he won’t win cos he’s unavailable for the Tour, made them decide to save Peter.
Anita & Gleb – Rumba
Georgia & Giovanni – ? (Argentine, Foxtrot, Viennese / Cha-Cha-Cha, Paso)
Helen & Aljaz – Viennese Waltz
Jay & Aliona – Tango
Katie & Anton – Argentine Tango
Kellie & Kevin – ? (Smooth, Argentine, Viennese / Rumba, Salsa)
Peter & Janette – American Smooth
Rob, do you think you might be overanalysing here? Surely the fact that there are only two males left in the competition, and the fact that Peter Andre is such a big draw for the audience (at least in theory) meant that they might just have saved him for the sake of ratings?
Possibly Tim but they have been dismantling him over a period of weeks and there was a chance to go in for the kill. He was 2pts below Jamelia on the leaderboard after all, and it looked very odd that 3 judges overturned their original scoring despite Jamelia dancing her routine perfectly in the dance-off. Based on his public vote, he clearly hasn’t been embraced by viewers either.
Anita and Gleb are dancing the Rumba to ‘Read All About It’ by Emelie Sande.
Georgia and Giovanni will perform the Paso Doble to Europe’s epic soft rock anthem ‘The Final Countdown’.
Helen and Aljaž perform the Viennese Waltz to the beautiful ‘At Last’ by Etta James.
Jay and Aliona are performing the Tango to the Prince classic ‘When Doves Cry’.
Katie and Anton will dance the Argentine Tango to Ástor Piazzolla’s ‘Libertango’.
Kellie and Kevin will Salsa to the poptastic ‘I Want You Back’ by The Jackon 5.
And Peter and Janette are going to dance the American Smooth to the soulful ‘Sweetest Feeling’ by the great Jackie Wilson.