Another Balls Up In Store?

Nov 3, 2016 by Rob

The writing looked on the wall for Anastacia last weekend as she came out to dance 4th on the night after the three routines that preceded her were bigged up and highly scored.

You had to feel a certain degree of sympathy for Ana as, in the last 4 weeks, she has endured running order positions of 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th. Her elimination price shrunk rapidly in-play but at least it was another 1pt profit on the night as she was advised as a saver bet at 2-1 pre-show.

Laura was also advised but enjoyed the eulogising of the judges and a seemingly heavily inflated score of 36 for her tango which saw her safe. On Saturday night Laura will dance the samba, a fiendishly difficult dance at the best of times and on all known previous fast Latin form, this will prove a tall order for Laura, and training footage has looked iffy.

Of course, the new Strictly paradigm often sees the judges over-score routines implausibly and it is much more about how the leaderboard is ordered with a view to managing the most likely dance-off scenarios.

Daisy, meanwhile, has been in the dance-off 2 weeks running. She has the VW and given she shone in week 1 of this series dancing a waltz, the likelihood is she will achieve a very high score for this dance and will be placed safely towards the top of the leaderboard to ensure she is not in the dance-off again.

Greg also has the VW and Daisy has been on later than Greg in each of the last 3 weeks. It will be interesting to see where they are put in the running order. Greg has the chance to at least regain some momentum on the show after a difficult few weeks and scores of 28, 24 and 26.

While Daisy has the somewhat quaint and old-fashioned ‘Daisy Bell’, Greg has the more evocative and modern track ’You Don’t Own Me’ which offers the potential for an impactful VW. For his backers, the hope is Greg at least matches his series best so far of 32 and enjoys the positive feedback of the judges.

The show usually likes to start and end with a bang and Ore, who is due an early slot, might be a possible show-opener which would also tee up a convenient boy-girl-boy-girl order throughout the night. Ore is more at home with fast Latin so he should make a good fist of the salsa to ‘Turn The Beat Around’ and training has looked promising.

Danny’s jive should be a barnstormer set to ‘Long Tall Sally’ – he has trained for 22 hours over Wednesday and Thursday this week – and this could be lined up for the pimp slot.

After running order positions of 1 and 2 in the last 2 weeks Judge Rinder is due a later slot and ‘It Don’t Mean A Thing…’ should make for a bright and breezy quickstep, but training footage has not looked convincing this week and his popularity might on the wane.

Which brings us to Ed, who offered up another entertaining dance last week with his pimp-slotted cha, cha, cha. Credit again goes to Katya for some more inspired choreo:

Ed also has the quickstep and could find himself the earlier of the 2 out of him and Judge Rinder, which might suggest he is vulnerable this week.

There are apparently some ‘fun’ elements planned for this and the main question with Ed is, would the show like to get him to Blackpool in 2 weeks’ time for an appropriate big night swansong there? His pro partner Katya has won dance championships at the ‘home of ballroom’ so it would be a fitting send-off for them both.

Like Honey G on X Factor, Ed’s continued presence on Strictly provides a talking point and lots of column inches so it is probably in the show’s interests to keep him in for a while longer yet.

Claudia has a paso doble to yet another ‘young’ song in ’Shut Up And Dance’, a track that does not really lend itself to paso. Training footage has suggested this might not be one of Claudia’s better dances. You sense her and AJ could end up one of the less memorable routines on the night.

The first Argentine tango of the series is awarded to Louise and it is probably good news for her she has been given this honour. ‘Tanguero’ by Sexteto Major is the ideal piece of music for a dramatic AT and this may well prove to be Louise’s defining moment of the series so far. It looks a number likely to get a late running order slot.

So pre-show there are solid grounds to look outside of Ed again for the 6th elimination of the series. On paper, Laura appears in the biggest danger of landing in the dance-off, and if Ed is going to escape the bottom 2 it may well be Claudia who is dragged down this week, or Judge Rinder.

A few ties will certainly aid Ed’s survival prospects assuming he finds himself propping up the leaderboard. And he will ideally want the likes of Laura and potentially Claudia and/or Judge Rinder below the top 3 or 4 places on the judges’ leaderboard which looks quite feasible.

Laura looks the main value play for 6th elimination pre-show, available at 3-1 with b365 and 4-1 with Stan James at time of posting, with Judge Rinder well worth a punt at 10-1 with Skybet and Stan James. A male leaving the show would leave an even male/female, 4-4 split.

In terms of the Outright, with Danny, Ore, Greg and Claudia covered this looks an opportune time to get Louise in the book too, in what looks a series that will be decided by TPTB. The final is likely to feature at least one female dancer and a top notch Argentine tango by Louise will probably see her Outright price cut.

Advised:

6th elimination – Laura – 2pt win – 4-1 – Stan James (3-1 with b365)

Judge Rinder – 1pt win – 10-1 – Skybet, Stan James

Outright – Louise – 1pt e/w – 7-1 (e/w a fifth the odds, first 3 places) – Ladbrokes

This week’s songs and dances:

Claudia and AJ will be dancing the Paso Doble to ‘Shut Up And Dance’ by Walk The Moon
Daisy and Aljaz will be dancing the Viennese Waltz to ‘Daisy Bell’ by Harry Dacre
Danny and Oti will be dancing the Jive to ‘Long Tall Sally’ by Little Richard
Ed and Katya will be dancing the Quickstep to ‘Help!’ by The Beatles
Greg and Natalie will be dancing the Viennese Waltz to ‘You Don’t Own Me’ by Grace
Judge Rinder and Oksana will be dancing the Quickstep to the Chantz Powell version of ‘It Don’t Mean A Thing (If It Ain’t Got That Swing)’
Laura and Giovanni will be dancing the Samba to ‘Bamboleo’ by Gipsy Kings
Louise and Kevin will be dancing the Argentine Tango to ‘Tanguera’ by Sexteto Mayor
Ore and Joanne will be dancing the Salsa to ‘Turn The Beat Around’ by Vicki Sue Robinson