By George!

Oct 3, 2025 by Rob

A bit of a puzzle set for us this year with the Winner market on Betfair swiftly concluding it’s a five-horse race.

Karen Carney is the one who has set a high bar for herself instead of Lewis, who looked the more likely show-closer. Karen topped the leaderboard with her pimp-slotted, lightning-footed jive, which obviously played heavily to her strengths.

Her dance background was easy to unearth pre-series, along with Lewis’s and Amber’s. The hare can win Strictly but it tends to favour the tortoise.

Karen looks a fast Latin specialist but we still need to see whether her and Carlos can really catch fire as a partnership, and also how she copes with ballroom. Early indications suggest she is going to have some struggles with the posture and the topline frame required. Tomorrow night’s tango will tell us more.

Katya might have been wiser trying to conceal Lewis’s ringer status as he essentially came out in week 1 and did a Matt Baker, showcasing incredible gymnastic ability in a choreo-packed routine. He could easily reach Kelvin Fletcher levels across the series, came across well, and already looks hard to dislodge from a final place.

Amber has a dance background having starred in numerous West End shows and possessing a professional diploma in musical theatre. As a last minute substitution for the injured Dani Dyer, weirdly her ringer status feels like it has slipped slightly under the radar.

She came across like the perfect English rose (despite being Welsh), and someone who could potentially charm the Strictly audience across the series. The pairing with Nikita is a definite positive.

The one who got the Winner market most excited, understandably, is George Clarke. His AS was a very decent first effort for someone who falls into the genuine beginner category.

He still has the fast Latin question to answer but he came across as a thoroughly nice chap, and a big plus for him is his pro partner, Alexis, who is clearly incredibly nimble and looks like she is going to create some stand out pieces of choreo, a la Jowita in her first season paired with Hamza.

Fifth favourite after the dust had settled on Saturday night was Vicky who put in a highly respectable first effort dancing the CCC while ending up mid-table.

Judges’ leaderboard week 1:

Karen and Carlos – Jive (15) – 7, 8, 8, 8 = 31
Lewis and Katya – Jive (6) – 7, 7, 7, 7 = 28
Amber and Nikita – waltz (14) – 7, 7, 7, 6 = 27
Jimmy and Lauren – Quickstep (10) – 6, 7, 7, 7 = 27
George and Alexis – American Smooth – (8) – 6, 6, 6, 6 = 24
La Voix and Aljaz – AS (12) – 6, 6, 6, 6 = 24
Vicky and Kai – CCC (9) – 5, 6, 6, 6 = 23
Stefan and Dianne – Foxtrot (4) – 4, 6, 6, 6 = 22
Alex and Johannes – VW (2) – 4, 6, 5, 6 = 21
Harry and Karen – CCC (3) – 4, 5, 5, 5 = 19
Balvinder and Julian – Samba (11) – 4, 4, 4, 5 = 17
Ellie and Vito – CCC (5) – 4, 4, 4, 5 = 17
Thomas and Amy – Paso Doble (13) – 2, 4, 5, 5 = 16
Chris and Nadiya – Samba (1) – 3, 4, 3, 4 = 14
Ross and Jowita – CCC – (7) – 2, 3, 2, 3 = 10

Always the best Latin dance to tick off at series start, her and Kai look good together on the dance floor and hint at a great rapport off it. Vicky has since been backed in to around 7. No idea why…

Jimmy dropped down into the low 20s after a promising QS by him. He might impress even more performing fast Latin routines, and he will get his first chance tomorrow trying to tame the ever difficult CCC.

Harry did an ok job with his CCC. The worry would be how he copes with the demands of ballroom hold, so QS for him tomorrow might allow him to slightly conceal any frailties. You sense the show is keen on La Voix having a long run, with her wanting to make it to Blackpool already being referenced.

Alex and Balvinder both had somewhat subdued starts, with Balvinder’s samba especially harshly assessed. They could start to go through the gears tomorrow night with Alex dancing samba (having said previously ‘the hips don’t lie’) and Charleston for Balvinder, which can often be a show highlight.

Stefan and Dianne is a pairing that works well but is probably destined for a mid-table finish. Ellie took on the CCC with Vito and they ended up joint-fourth last on the judges’ leaderboard.

Ellie G will now dance a waltz to an Ellie G song – Ellie Goulding. One wonders if the show might set up a meeting for Ellie G with Ellie G in her VT. For all the admiration Ellie stirs, it looks like there will be a clear ceiling with her dance ability, and her winner odds drifting from as low as 4.1 pre-lives to 36 tells its own story.

So it’s Thomas, Chris and Ross who are the last three on the judges’ leaderboard heading into tomorrow night and looking in the most danger of first elimination.

Ross earns some Scottish theming which just might help his public vote, and along with Chris they both could produce respectable waltzes that focus on improvement intended to aid their survival.

This definitely feels like it’s the case with Chris as Nadiya is a dab hand at building evocative ballroom numbers for lesser lights dance ability-wise. And Jowita is among the best female pro choreographers on the show.

Thomas was on late with his paso in week 1, could easily find himself on early, and be set to endure vote dampening faint praise from the judges for his salsa to ‘Bonkers’ which sounds a dubious mix. Will the pv come to his rescue? The jury is firmly out on that one.

Ross is clearly at risk but an odds-on price for first elimination makes little appeal pre-show.

Who will earn the biggest plaudits tomorrow night? George has paso which is often an open goal for praise given the right lighting, outfits and music; Lewis’s VW will likely be top notch, Amber could easily shine with her first fast Latin, while Kai has earmarked Vicky as a potential ballroom girl, and foxtrot is one of his faves.

Much to play for still as we head into week 2 of the lives. Keep an eye out for the now traditional exit poll which will be posted on X shortly after online voting opens at the end of tomorrow night’s show.

Week 2 dances and songs:

Karen Carney and Carlos Gu – Tango to Training Season by Dua Lipa
Vicky Pattison and Kai Widdrington – Foxtrot to Rein Me In by Sam Fender and Olivia Dean
Alex Kingston and Johannes Radebe – Samba to La Bamba by Connie Francis
Chris Robshaw and Nadiya Byckova – Viennese Waltz to Die With A Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars
Ellie Goldstein and Vito Coppola – Waltz to Your Song by Ellie Goulding
Jimmy Floyd-Hasselbaink and Lauren Oakley – Cha Cha Cha to I Heard it Through The Grapevine by Santa Esmerelda
La Voix and Aljaž Škorjanec – Tango to Objection (Tango) by Shakira
Ross King and Jowita Przystal – Waltz to Sunshine on Leith by The Proclaimers
Stefan Dennis and Dianne Buswell – Cha Cha Cha to Give It Up by KC & The Sunshine Band
Lewis Cope and Katya Jones – Viennese Waltz to Lose Control by Teddy Swims
George Clarke and Alexis Warr – Paso Doble to Game of Survival by Ruelle
Thomas Skinner and Amy Dowden – Salsa to Bonkers by Dizzee Rascal and Arman Van Helden
Harry Aikines-Aryeetey and Karen Hauer – Quickstep to Everybody Needs Somebody To Love by The Blues Brothers
Balvinder Sopal and Julian Caillon – Charleston to Been Like This by Meghan Trainor and T-Pain
Amber Davies and Nikita Kuzmin – Samba to Bam Bam by Ed Sheeran and Camila Cabello