Can Lewis Cope With Favouritism?
The Strictly 2025 launch show is broadcast on Saturday evening on BBC1. As per usual, the pairings have leaked. Spoiler alert: don’t read on if you’d rather watch the show in blissful ignorance.
Who are the pairings winners, and losers? Let’s try and break it down…
Last minute replacement, Emmerdale actor Lewis Cope, should be overjoyed to be paired with Katya. She arguably remains the show’s most outstanding pro dancer, as both a teacher and choreographer. Lewis has ringer credentials and the Katya pairing has reinforced his favourite status. The market believes he might be Kelvin Fletcher mark II, who also came in as a late substitution.
Dani Dyer has also come up trumps being paired with Nikita. She couldn’t have asked for a more suitable male pro partner height-wise, and Nikita is a solid enough all-rounder, making the final in 2023 with Layton Williams. While Dani may well not be of Lewis standard from the get-go, that might not be a bad thing.
Third favourite Ellie Goldstein gets Vito who has taken part in three series so far and made the final all three times. Those are great form figures and could it be four in a row for him? We can expect to see the show talk up Ellie’s participation in the early weeks and eulogise her performances. The worry would be, there is likely to be a ceiling, dance ability-wise, and the feel-good sentiment could gradually fade away.
Lewis has ringer credentials and the Katya pairing has reinforced his favourite status
Social media personality George Clarke comes next in the betting, paired with pro newcomer Alexis Warr. He’ll be hoping to emulate fellow podcaster Joe Sugg who made the final in 2018. Alexis could just be the next Jowita, who won in her first season in 2022 paired with Hamza Yassin, and this pairing certainly looks among the front-runners pre-lives.
Vicky Pattison gets Kai, who harshly missed out on a celeb partner altogether last year. He previously made the final with AJ Odudu in 2021 which AJ had to pull out of due to injury. Kai has a very middle England-friendly demeanour and he is undoubtedly a plus to Vicky’s chance.
The main issue for Vicky is, she will be a genuine beginner at series start but the journey potential might be there. We saw Vicky win IAC in 2015, she is a real live wire, and it will be interesting to see if she is able to endear herself to the Strictly audience with Kai by her side.
Karen Carney has plenty of dance background and could be a leading light. She is paired with Carlos who made the final in his first series paired with Molly Rainford. Molly was something of a ringer which makes that achievement look less impressive and Carlos wouldn’t be among the male pros on the roster considered a big positive. Winning Strictly is a lot about the connection the partnership forges and the fear would be this might be where Karen and Carlos come up short.
Eastenders actress Balvinder Sopal, like Karen, has a dancing background. She is paired with the other pro newcomer in this series, Australian Julian Caillon. Similar to Alexis, there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding Julian, but the clues are there both he and Alexis have been afforded talented celeb partners to help them achieve respectable finishes in their debut series.
Kai has a very middle England-friendly demeanour and he is undoubtedly a plus to Vicky’s chance
Fellow actress Alex Kingston has been paired with Johannes. Aged 62, Alex will be trying to harness the older female vote. She said ‘the hips don’t lie’ when asked about her dancing ability but Johannes has a tendency to choreograph routines that do not showcase his celeb partner well enough. In six series he has only made the final once before when partnering the ringer John Whaite who was consistently scored at the top of the judges’ leaderboard.
Gladiator Harry Aikines-Aryeetey gets long-standing female pro Karen Hauer. This will be Karen’s 14th consecutive season and she has made the final twice before with Mark Wright and Jamie Laing. Harry has a very ripped physique and it’s the sort of optic that can wreak vanity and be a voting negative. He could be a decent mover in terms of fast Latins which are a Karen specialty but ballroom may prove a tougher challenge.
Former The Apprentice contestant, Thomas Skinner, has been given Amy as his partner. The producers probably think the twee Amy and belligerent Thomas (‘bosh’) might just strike a happy equilibrium but it’s hard to see the BBC wishing to promote someone of Thomas’s political leaning, and as much as he may attract a Reform vote he doesn’t have the shape of a natural dancer; nor the natural charm to earn widespread appeal.
Drag act La Voix gets the well liked Aljaz who made the final last year with Tasha Ghouri. As much as Aljaz has built up a strong fan base over the years it’s difficult to see this pairing really flying with the audience and an early exit could be on the cards.
Glasgow-born ITV showbiz presenter, Ross King, paired with the enormously talented Jowita, also has the look of also-ran status. No matter Jowita’s brilliant choreo skills Ross may well only last long enough to perform a Highland Fling-inspired Couple’s Choice.
The show might try and spare Nadiya the ignominy of being paired with the first elimination casualty again
Former England rugby player Chris Robshaw gets Nadiya who ended up being first boot last year paired with Tom Dean. Chris looks a likely wooden spoon contender this year too.
He will be an absolute beginner but the show might just try and spare Nadiya the ignominy of being paired with the first elimination casualty again, and Chris at least has the look of someone who could possess some middle England charm if a journey, of sorts, is allowed to develop.
Former professional footballer Jimmy Floyd-Hasselbank gets Lauren which has to be a positive. She stepped in as a replacement pro partner for JB Gill last year and immediately the choreo took off, and JB ended up a losing finalist. Jimmy may prove better suited to fast Latin routines and there could be some back-to-lay scope with him if he can impress early on with something like the salsa.
Last but perhaps not least, long-running Neighbours actor, Stefan Dennis, gets defending champion Dianne in an all Aussie pairing. Similar to Jimmy there could be some back-to-lay potential in Stefan. Dianne is much-loved among Strictly viewers after her series win with Chris last year, news of her pregnancy adds to the good will she has built up, and some clips unearthed of Stefan hint he might be a decent mover.
Overall, the strength and depth of the field looks skewed towards ideally finding a female winner this year but we know the best laid plans, as we have seen in previous series, can be upended, and it is a perennial difficulty for the show’s producers to get a female contestant over the line first, often requiring serious dark arts being deployed to trip up the most popular male celeb(s).
How Lewis and Katya are treated by TPTB is going to be informative to observe in the early weeks. There is always scope for an intentional, setting the bar too high at series start, and if Lewis comes out all guns blazing in week 1, a possible Will Mellor or Nigel Harman-type trajectory will be firmly in play, but Katya’s teaching and choreo is always so good the judges may have to get extremely pernickety.
When you look through the history of Strictly winners the tortoise can often end up beating the hare. The group dance that closes Saturday night’s show will, as always, be over-scrutinised for early clues and it will be the first live show a week later that should prove far more revealing.
When you look through the history of Strictly winners the tortoise can often end up beating the hare
Chris McCausland was advised to subscribers at 12-1 following last year’s first live show, and there is always scope for an unexpected contender to develop. It often pays to look very closely at the chemistry developing between the pairing because this always ends up the vital winning ingredient.
Premium-rate phone voting has been abolished and for the first time, voting this year will be entirely online. It’s hard to imagine it making that much difference in terms of the overall vote with probably only some viewers in the 60+ demographic, still registering votes by phoning them through.
In previous series the BBC has restricted it to 3 free online votes per viewer. There are a few hints this might be increased to 5 free votes though there has been no confirmation of this as yet.
2025 Strictly pairings:
Stefan & Dianne
Vicky & Kai
Chris & Nadiya
Thomas & Amy
Alex & Johannes
Jimmy & Lauren
Harry & Karen
Ross & Jowita
La Voix & Aljaz
Ellie & Vito
George & Alexis
Karen & Carlos
Lewis & Katya
Balvinder & Julian
Dani & Nikita
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Hi Rob, having sat last season out, I’m back this year ready to get back to winning ways with a Christmas bonus hopefully on the way
Dani looks the pick of the bunch for me on the proviso they want a female winner. Certainly fits the Stacy Dooley model, very likeable and already has a decent sized following. Add Danny Dyer and Jarrod Bowen into the mix for some extra votes along the way from the Southern region and she could be a juggernaut.
My outside pick at this point and with odds I have snapped up is Stefan.
Looking forward to seeing how this season unfolds.
Hi Stoney. It will be interesting to see how good Dani is at the outset. It may well play into her hands more if she underwhelms with something like cha, cha, cha which, iirc, was the first Latin dance Stacey Dooley had to perform. That said, Ellie Leach aced things pretty much every week…
Stefan looks a potential dark horse. I suppose one concern might be whether Dianne is able to take part all the way to the business end of the series.
Stefan looked pretty stiff to me. Hard to see him making it to the latter stages.
Dani won’t be going much longer than these odds, unless she has a few underwhelming weeks at the start. Think it’s probably worth waiting a bit as Lewis is going to shorten over the next few weeks.
Agree – expected a bit more from Stefan. I thought Jimmy FH came across really well. A shame there was little evidence of any real dance ability but history suggests we shouldn’t fall into the trap of reaching too many concrete conclusions based only on the group dance.
Hi Rob. It’s that time of year again 🙂
I agree that Lewis looks to be this year’s ‘ringer’, and he is already pencilled in as a finalist in my mind. Will Katya get to close the ‘week one’ show for the fourth time in five years? I suspect there will be a more compelling storyline than Lewis’ by the time we reach the final; but he’s someone I have as a ‘green’ in my book.
Balvinder has some dance experience, and comes across as likeable when interviewed, so I think her price of @17 represents decent each-way value. ‘EastEnders’ generally have a good record on the show, as do male pros with their first partner.
Karen & Carlos is not a pairing I envisaged. A shortfall on the PV now looks even more likely, but they may end up as this year’s ’dance-off assassins’.
One (if not more) spot in the final will likely go to a contestant in their 20’s. If pushed, I would pick Dani’s chances over George or Ellie’s; but I am not tempted by her current price of @6, and would hope that more appealing odds become available, if she gets off to an unspectacular start.
As for the others, Vicky and Harry should both have a good run, but I see them bowing out somewhere in the second half of the competition.
I would expect Alex & Stefan to ‘make their mark’ early on; however 13 weeks of Strictly is a grind; and is a key reason as to why we’ve only had four previous finalists aged 50+
Thanks for posting your thoughts, James. Saturday’s launch show highly informative, as always, and I think we can dismiss at least half the field already. Balvinder and Alex hidden away during group dance, and not much intel gained on George either. I think week 1 of the lives will establish the pecking order a bit more.
Dani withdraws through injury:/
Who do we think benefits from this, Vicky quite possibly.
Amber Davies replaces Dani. Former Love Island as well, semi-final exit in last year’s DOI, ringer status in terms of her dance background…
At this stage I’d on similar odds I’d rather back a queen of the jungle over a love island winner all day long. Obviously remains to be seen how well Vicky can dance, but not an obvious ringer which should help.