Chelsee In Jeopardy

Nov 25, 2011 by

It was hugely disappointing, and came as a massive surprise, to see Russell go out of Strictly last Saturday. More so given the story that appeared in the Star the following day suggesting he had topped the vote, or finish second on the vote, virtually every week previously.
It was a peculiar result because it meant Russell must have almost definitely been in the bottom 3 on the public vote when he put on another show-stopping routine and received great comments from the judges. And given the Star’s impressive track record with such vote leaks, his price would have tumbled had he made it through, enabling those who joined us backing him at 66-1 on the Outright and 33-1 to be Top Male, to have laid off at considerably shorter, and greened up their books.
It was a poor week all in all with Jason looking all set to top score only to do a Devon Loch, and forget his steps within sight of the finish, and Robbie, first up on the night – always an under-scored position – not making the required 29pts. So we will take it on the chin and prepare to hit back this week.
Last Saturday we smashed into Holly to be eliminated after she was left in an extremely vulnerable position on the leaderboard. This week, we wonder if a similar scenario might await Chelsee. Our reasoning for this is as follows:
Holly, dancing what should be a suitable dance for her, the foxtrot, is due a voting bounce having been bottom 2, and will probably be over-scored. With Robin ruled out injured, Anita may well get a sympathy edit and a boost to her vote, dancing the cha, cha, cha with Brendan, and quite conceivably inflated scores, to try and keep her safe – the reasoning here being the show probably wouldn’t like to see her go out of the competition without her regular pro partner present. Alex has the fun and voter-friendly Charleston, and as much as it doesn’t suit our Outright book, she will likely breeze through again aided by her One Show fan base. With Harry dancing a quickstep and Jason also doing the Charleston, they look pretty secure, likely to figure at the top of the leaderboard and with their vast armies of middle-aged housewives voting to keep them safe.
Robbie, meanwhile, is playing the humble card to perfection, and we reckon he’s probably polling close to, or even above, Harry and Jason. And with the entertaining samba to call upon, middle England mums should lap his routine up, and he may be boosted further by being lambasted by the likes of Craig and ending up at the foot of the leaderboard.
Chelsee, meanwhile, will have to master the always difficult Argentine Tango, a dance that invariably leads to moderate scores unless it is done with great panache. We don’t think it’s a dance that will suit Chelsee, as she is going to have to sell the passion, and Chelsee strikes us as altogether uncomfortable coming across that way as her relationship with Pasha is more like brother and sister.
There is going to be a Swing-athon, with all the couples taking to the floor, and the judges may well try and give Chelsee a helping hand with her score during this segment, but even so, 28-1 with SportingBet for Chelsee to be next eliminated is too big a price to miss out on, looking at how the dancing cards might fall on Saturday. We would also suggest a cover on Anita at 10-11 with Ladbrokes and Betfred, as she still appears more vulnerable than Robbie.
If we project forward, the remaining dances after Saturday, look like this:
Harry: VW (B), Rumba (L), AS (B), Paso (L), Charleston
Jason: Argentine tango (B), Waltz (B), Samba (L), Salsa (L), AS (B)
Chelsee: VW (B), Rumba (L), Jive, (L) AS (B), Paso (L)
Holly: Charleston, Argentine tango (B), Waltz (B), Samba (L), Paso (L)
Robbie: QS (B), Charleston, Argentine tango (B), VW (B), Rumba (L)
Anita: Foxtrot (B), QS (B), VW (B), Rumba (L), Paso (L)
Alex: Argentine tango (B), Waltz (B), Samba (L), Salsa (L), AS (B)
Given they all get to duck one dance over the course of the series, should they make it through, Harry, Chelsee and Robbie will all be hoping not to land the dreaded rumba in the next 2 weeks. With the Swing-athon out of the way, it remains to be seen what the show has up its sleeve in the semi-final for the 5 remaining couples to dance on top of their one Latin and one Ballroom number. With the samba or salsa still to negotiate we remain confident Alex is going to fall before the final, but if Robbie can squeeze through this week his long-term prospects might start to look a whole lot more rosy, and his Outright odds of 28-1 with Bet365 and 14s with Bet365 and Coral to be Top Male will appear generous. He will have a ballroom routine next week if he makes it through and his ballroom is excellent, and if he then makes the semi, Ola will hopefully be able to wrangle the Charleston on top of another ballroom routine. And we all know how good Ola’s Charleston routines can be:

Rob Furber

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