Courting Danger

Nov 10, 2016 by Rob

It was another profitable Strictly last week with Laura, advised at 4-1, eliminated following a dance-off with Ore.

Ed escaped the dance-off once more with Claudia W conveniently asking him, post-dance, how much he and Katya would love to get to Blackpool. The Sun has since run a very vague story about Ed topping the Strictly vote.

On Saturday he will dance a salsa to ‘Gangnam Style’ which looks clearly teed up for him and Katya to entertain viewers and secure enough votes to avoid the dance-off again, thus securing their place at Blackpool.

It was interesting to note the convenient 3 ties on last week’s leaderboard making Ed’s escapology act from last place far easier. We may get a similar scenario on Saturday.

After Louise’s outstanding AT last Saturday, Danny finds himself tasked with this dance one week later and set to a seemingly far less appropriate song for an AT in Marvin Gaye’s ‘I Heard It Through The Grapevine’.

One wonders, in terms of the long game, whether this is a hint Louise is favoured over Danny this year. Danny received his first, long overdue 10s last Saturday for his jive but this was placed as the show opener and Louise very much stole the show later on with her dramatic and powerful AT which secured three 10s, to Danny’s two. And the very fact Louise was awarded the first AT of the series can be viewed as a significant positive for her.

While Oti has proved herself an excellent choreographer in this series and may well have something clever up her sleeve to make their AT shine on Saturday, it does look advantage Louise as things stand, with a piece of VT of Kevin giving Louise a pep talk pre-dance also featuring in Sunday night’s results show, and having a real vote-winning feel about it.

A second pimp slot for Claudia in the last 3 weeks suggests she has been struggling on the public vote. The show has been keen to keep her and AJ in a young lane series-long in terms of song choices and this will continue on Saturday dancing the VW to Kelly Clarkson’s ‘Breakaway’.

The view here is the lifeblood of the Strictly vote is an older female voter so it would come as no surprise to see Claudia soon fall into the dance-off and this could even happen on Saturday unless the judges try and place her safely towards the top of the leaderboard.

Daisy looks under most threat pre-show tasked with a salsa to Deee-Lite’s classic ‘Groove Is In The Heart’. This is an occasion when you wish Strictly would use the original track rather than have Dave Arch’s band likely ruin it performing it live.

Training footage has looked pretty good and Daisy is due a later slot on Saturday. If Laura can get 32 for a poor samba last week, including a 9 from Bruno, Daisy could easily be awarded something higher on Saturday.

Greg has the paso which always has the potential to be an impactful, vote-winning routine. Ian Waite thought the early training footage of this was laboured. However, the power of the paso should really suit Greg, you would expect some more top choreo from Nat, and they have an excellent instrumental paso track for this in ’Tamacun’. After equalling his series-best score of 32 last week, there is also room in the script for Greg to land a first 9 or two for this if he is able to nail the performance.

After landing in the bottom 2 last week it should be in the script for Ore to be talked-up and scored-up by the judges. He will need this dancing the always-potentially-underwhelming rumba to ensure he does not find himself back in the bottom 2 again.

Louise gets the chance to continue to shine dancing the American Smooth to Shirley Bassey’s ‘Big Spender’. It’s a powerful track and the lifts allowed in the AS will give room to impress.

Judge Rinder has the foxtrot which is one of the more difficult ballroom dances in terms of footwork. Early training footage did not impress with Ian Waite highlighting a lot of flaws. ‘You Make Me Feel So Young’ is a classic track but if this is on early it could be one of the less memorable routines on the night.

Come Blackpool last year, we were down to only 2 male dancers left. This year, the risk is this could happen among the female cast if Daisy gets eliminated on Saturday. In previous years we have generally had a more even split.

Pre-show, the view here is Ed will very likely power clear of the dance-off once again, and two out of Daisy, Claudia and Judge Rinder look the most likely candidates to end up in the dance-off. Claudia should be out-scoring both of them with her VW which would mean whatever happens she will be in the box-seat to be saved.

A Daisy vs Judge Rinder dance-off would be less easy to call but you could envisage Daisy’s salsa outscoring Judge Rinder’s foxtrot on the night which would give room for Daisy to win the dance-off.

The series-long narrative has been to nitpick Judge Rinder’s routines and keep a lid on his vote since his week 1 CCC. So at the odds, Judge Rinder looks the value play at 6-1 with Skybet and Coral to be the 7th elimination, though it is probably prudent to have a saver on Daisy.

Advised:

Judge Rinder – 7th elimination – 6-1 – 2pt win – Coral, Skybet
Daisy Lowe – 7th elimination – 13-8 – 2pt win – Coral

This week’s songs & dances:

Claudia and AJ will be dancing the Viennese Waltz to ‘Breakaway’ by Kelly Clarkson

Daisy and Aljaz will be dancing the Salsa to ‘Groove Is In The Heart’ by Deee-Lite

Danny and Oti will be dancing the Argentine Tango to ‘I Heard it Through the Grapevine’ by Marvin Gaye

Ed and Katya will be dancing the Salsa to ‘Gangnam Style’ by Psy

Greg and Natalie will be dancing the Paso Doble to ‘Tamacun’ by Rodrigo y Gabriela

Judge Rinder and Oksana will be dancing the Foxtrot to ‘You Make Me Feel So Young’ by Harry Connick Jr

Louise and Kevin will be dancing the American Smooth to ‘Big Spender’ by Shirley Bassey

Ore and Joanne will be dancing the Rumba to ‘Ordinary People’ by John Legend