Doubting Thomas

Sep 28, 2015 by

Doubting Thomas

An informative first week of Strictly and largely a good one in terms of the advised portfolio of investments recommended here pre-lives.

Anita (advised at 22-1 e/w on the Outright) performed a highly promising cha, cha, cha which saw her Outright odds half in price. Jay also produced an excellent first effort dancing the cha, cha, cha. His price had surprisingly drifted to as big as 10-1 on the back of very limited intel courtesy of the group dance, but has now come in to what it was pre-lives, available at 6-1 e/w.

Peter got the week 1 Saturday night pimp, and impressed as expected. Second favourite Helen also got off to a good start on the Friday performing a waltz.

Anthony looked more hamstrung by his shoulder injury than anticipated and his price has gone in the opposite direction to Anita’s. He has now drifted to as big as 25-1 which could prove an over-reaction. Among the bigger priced contenders he still looks one of the more likely journey contestants, as long as he can survive the first month of the competition and his fitness improves enough for him to enjoy full use of his right arm.

While Peter and Jay look set to dominate on the male side of the competition this year, the female side looks a lot more competitive. Kellie danced a competent tango and Georgia arguably impressed more performing the jive.

However, having previously advised Anita at 12-1 to be Top Female (now a best-priced 11-2), and Helen at 7-2 to be Top Female (now a best-priced 9-4), a bigger threat may well emerge in the shape of Katie Derham.

She performed a respectable jive but perhaps more importantly in terms of her long-term chances, the narrative was teed up by Len on Saturday that she represents Anton’s best chance ever to make the final.

Anton’s best finish to date was 3rd place back in series 1, in 2004, partnering Lesley Garrett. He has never made the final. Anton’s popularity is certainly a plus and Last Night Of The Proms presenter Katie looks to have middle England votability in abundance.

While her dance skills, especially in fast Latin, are unlikely to match a good few of her female rivals, it is easy to envisage this pairing making it all the way to the last 5/6 on the back of a robust public vote. And you get the feeling Katie could, just could, become this season’s voting behemoth. Cue Daily Star vote leak information and correspondent price crash later in the series…

In the show’s latter stages TPTB have become far more clinical in managing their preferred finalists, often successfully killing off a public favourite. They will be aware it would represent something of a feel-good story for Anton to make the final, possibly in his last series as a dancer on the show as he turns 50 next year, and while they have made a point of pushing the best dancers in the past come the show’s business end it is certainly feasible to see them do a Chris Hollins and submit to the public’s wishes on this occasion.

In comparison, greater doubts have to surround Georgia and Kellie’s long-term prospects in the competition, in terms of votability not to mention the fact Kellie’s Eastenders commitments may well mean she is unavailable to do the Strictly tour next year.

So the advice here would be to take the 5-1 Katie to be Top Female, giving you 3 solid stabs at landing the winner of this market, and a nice profit if any of them are the last woman standing.

These are the scores heading into Saturday:

Peter & Janette (Saturday pimp slot) CCC 7 8 8 7 = 30
Helen & Aljaz (Friday, running order position 3) Waltz 7 7 7 8 = 29
Anita & Gleb (Friday pimp slot) CCC 6 7 7 7 = 27
Georgia & Giovanni (Saturday, running order position 4) Jive 6 7 7 7 = 27
Jay & Aliona (Saturday coffin slot) CCC 5 8 7 7 = 27
Kellie & Kevin (Friday coffin slot) Tango 6 7 7 7 = 27
Katie & Anton (Saturday, 6th) Jive 6 6 7 7 = 26
Daniel & Kristina (Friday, 5th) Waltz 4 6 7 7 = 24
Anthony & Oti (Friday, 2nd) Jive 4 5 6 6 = 21
Jamelia & Tristan (Saturday, 8th) Waltz 4 6 6 5 = 21
Ainsley & Natalie (Saturday, 5th) Tango 4 5 6 5 = 20
Kirsty & Brendan (Saturday, 2nd) Waltz 4 5 6 5 = 20
Jeremy & Karen (Saturday, 3rd) CCC 2 6 6 5 = 19
Iwan & Ola (Saturday, 7th) Tango 3 5 5 4 = 17
Carol & Pasha (Friday, 4th) CCC 2 5 5 4 = 16

Those that danced Latin will dance ballroom on Saturday, and vice versa. What we know so far is Ainsley will dance salsa, Carol foxtrot, Anthony waltz, Iwan cha cha cha, Jamelia cha cha cha, and Kirsty salsa.

Regarding the first elimination market, Iwan looks the most under threat and well worth an investment at a best-priced 9-2 at time of posting this article.

The reasoning behind this is quite simple. Carol has the chance to gain some respectability dancing the foxtrot and has her loyal BBC Breakfast audience to help boost her pv and enable her to escape the bottom 2. Ditto with Jeremy who will dance ballroom, has his radio 2 listeners to rely upon, and would have gained some new fans after his highly entertaining cha cha cha.

Iwan has the tricky cha cha cha to negotiate so it will be hard for him to rise up the leaderboard and he could be on for an early running order position too after being on 3rd from last on Saturday.

It is easy to envisage Ainsley’s salsa being decent and a vote-winner. Jamelia will probably be better suited to fast latin and she could rise up the leaderboard slightly with her cha cha cha. This isn’t as clear cut with Kirsty who could also find herself in danger of a bottom 2 appearance if her salsa, a notoriously difficult dance, doesn’t come up to scratch.

Anthony should gain a degree of sympathy with his shoulder injury, and should be able to do a decent enough waltz. You also sense the show wouldn’t want to lose him and new professional Oti in week 1.

With Daniel having to dance a Latin number he is likely to drop down the leaderboard and could also find himself in the danger zone if his middle-aged female music fans don’t show their support en masse.

Hopefully we will see some bottom 2 and highest/lowest score markets appearing later in the week. Keep an eye on the Comments section below for updates.

Advised:

Katie Derham – Top Female – 5-1 – 4pt win – BetVictor (combined with the earlier advised Helen – 6pt@7-2 and Anita – 2pt@12-1, giving a potential profit of Katie +12pts, Anita +14pts, Helen +15pts)

Outright – Katie Derham – 9-1 – 2pt e/w – Coral, Skybet

Iwan Thomas – first elimination – 9-2 – 2pt win – bet365, Paddy Power

Kirsty Gallacher – first elimination – 25-1 – 0.5pt win – Boylesports

16 Comments

  1. Rob

    Ainsley and Natalie will be serving up a Salsa to ‘Don’t Touch My Tomatoes’ by Josephine Baker.

    Anita and Gleb will be performing the Charleston to ‘Pencil Full Of Lead’ by Paolo Nutini.

    Anthony and Oti will be Waltzing to ‘If You Don’t Know Me By Now’ by Simply Red.

    Carol and Pasha will be performing the American Smooth to ‘Isn’t This A Lovely Day’ by Irving Berlin.

    Daniel and Kristina will be performing the Charleston to ‘Let’s Misbehave’ by Cole Porter.

    Georgia and Giovanni will be Waltzing to ‘Georgia On My Mind’ by Ray Charles.

    Helen and Aljaž will be performing the Cha Cha to Uptown Girl by Billy Joel.

    Iwan and Ola will be performing the Cha Cha to ‘Sexy And I Know It’ by LMFAO.

    Jamelia and Tristan will be performing the Cha Cha to ‘Don’t Cha’ by Pussycat Dolls.

    Jay and Aliona will be Waltzing to ‘See The Day’ by Dee C Lee.

    Jeremy and Karen will be performing the American Smooth to ‘Happy Together’ by The Turtles.

    Katie and Anton will be Tangoing to ‘Telephone’ by Lady Gaga feat. Beyonce.

    Kellie and Kevin will be performing the Cha Cha to ‘Don’t Go Breaking My Heart’ by Elton John & Kiki Dee.

    Kirsty and Brendan will be performing the Salsa to ‘Can’t Touch It’ by Ricki Lee.

    Peter and Janette will be Quickstepping to ‘Valerie’ by The Zutons.

  2. Frank

    Interesting read, thanks Rob. Love the Kirsty Gallacher pick and followed you although I missed the 25/1. Good luck for Saturday!

  3. M8

    Fully agree with your Iwan and Kirsty picks Rob. Also note Iwan dancing to “Sexy and I know it”. An arrogant, vain song like that is hardly going to be a vote gainer for him. I think he’s a shoe in for the bottom two it just depends who joins him. If it’s Jeremy I think he’ll go as he doesn’t look like he’ll have good posture for ballroom, but hopefully like you said he’s gained fans from last week (my mum is certainly rooting for him). I’m hoping Carol also beats the bottom two but if she doesn’t I still think she can survive against Iwan as I hope she can be better in ballroom.

    Bwin have opened up markets for highest and lowest scores next week. A couple that appeal to me right now are:

    Daniel O’Donnell 10/1 lowest scorer (My NAP of the weekend, those odds are way to big, he’ll be shocking in Latin and Charleston will require fast, flexible movements!)

    Jeremy Vine 5/1 lowest scorer (I’m having nightmare over his posture)

    Highest scorer I believe will be one of Helen, Georgia, Jay or Anita (all 7/1). You could toss a coin really on any of those four although Anita having Charleston might just give her the edge. Peter I’m expecting will be brought down to earth a little this week with the quickstep.

    • Rob

      Hi M8,

      Have you checked the market rules on those bwin odds? They look to me like the prices for overall scores following the first 2 dances by each celeb.

      Had a quick look and couldn’t see any clarification on the site. Totally agree with your value picks IF these are prices just for this week. Some brilliant value there.

  4. M8

    Hi Rob.

    It clearly states under the miscellaneous Strictly category: “Strictly Come Dancing 2015 Specials (week 2)” with then odds for markets such has “how many judges points will Iwan Thomas receive?” Scroll down and you then have the market “Who will recieve the lowest score?”

    The key in there is the Week 2 clearly stated next to Strictly Come Dancing Specials. I’ve print screened it all and will probably go on support tomorrow to check. But the fact that Bwin has week 2 clearly stated at the top, and then nothing about who will received the lowest score combined with week 1, makes me believe they mean week 2 only.

    Also I’ve just checked back on the odds and Carol Kirkwood has gone back out to 7/4 with Daniel being cut to 4/1. They are probably acting on money being pumped into the market, but I don’t think Carol’s odds would have drifted if they were combining week 1 scores. Thanks for the warning though, I’ll have to contact them just to make sure.

    • Rob

      Hi M8,
      Looking at the price movements, it looks like tomorrow night’s scores only. IF they try & claim it isn’t, then you’d have a strong case with IBAS given that only ‘week 2’ is mentioned.

      I think the 10-1 DoD you flagged up was cracking value. I thought he looked ok in training last night on ITT but he could easily lose timing during this routine. The other 2 to consider in this market are Iwan at 11-2 and Kirsty at 9-1.

      Iwan’s CCC doesn’t look like it’ll be very good despite his attempt at showmanship. Kirsty didn’t look very good in her salsa training either.

      I think Carol and Jeremy both have the chance of improving their week 1 scores. Not convinced by Anthony’s training but I think the judges will be generous with their scoring of him.

      Highest score, you’ve summed it up – Helen, Georgia, Anita and Jay all have solid claims, & it is probably worth opposing Peter.

      With Anita getting the Fri pimp slot, she might be on earlier tomorrow. Jay’s song and dance could be ideal to finish the night with. I think it’ll most likely be either him or Ainsley in the pimp slot.

      Georgia’s waltz looked good in training, so I’d probably side with a dutch of Jay at 9-2 and Georgia at 7-1 for highest score.

      Good luck with all your bets tomorrow night 🙂

  5. george

    jeremy vine 5-1 lowest score?

    any chance vine will get a bit of BBC Lovin protection from the judges?

    • Rob

      I thought he looked ok in training, George, dancing the American Smooth. I’m also pretty sure he would have gained some new fans after last week’s CCC.

      I don’t think the show wants to lose him early on because there is potential for future highly entertaining fast Latin routines so judges will probably focus on the positive. Jeremy and Carol should (in theory) have a solid, built-in Beeb vote too.

  6. Rob

    Anita dancing 11th tonight – Gleb Tweeted.

    Coral have highest/lowest scorer markets, e/w a third the odds, 1, 2.

    Do think Peter and Helen worth taking on. Can see Jay and Georgia scoring well tonight, but maybe one of Anita/Kellie will surprise.

    Lowest scorer – I think it’s worth opposing Carol here. Daniel’s Charleston has looked just about acceptable in training. Possibly Jeremy the value here.

  7. M8

    DS reporting Iwan v Kirsty with Iwan out. Fantastic result to start the new season. Well done Rob, absolutely spot on with the bottom two again!

  8. george

    kirsty really ungracious when taking judges criticism and low scores.
    very entitled

  9. Rob

    Thanks M8. There was a lot of confusion regarding the spoiler last night. Hopefully Iwan vs Kirsty is correct and if so, a great start to the series 🙂

    Also on the highest/lowest score, Jay a nice winner for highest, & I mentioned in Comments that Iwan could be the value with Coral for lowest.

    Anyway, couldn’t have gone much better all in all. It was one of those situations where I felt the bookies had priced the elim completely wrong with Carol, Jeremy and Daniel all having a very strong chance of avoiding b2. Outright shaping up very well too.

    Hope plenty of readers got the 9-2 Iwan. He was 16-1 opening show, then widely available at 10-1. Happy days 🙂

  10. george

    After Saturdays show I’m starting to think Helen George will have much more appeal to middle england than Katie Denham.

    Radio 3 not middle england, call the midwife hits the spot exactly.

    Middle england are essentially low brow.
    Radio 3 listeners probably not watching strictly.

    Also something about Katie just looks a bit stiff like she’s not going to progress and develop very well compared to the others over the course of the series.

  11. george

    also question Katy’s appeal to female voters.
    I think for a female to get strong support from other females she either needs to generate maternal feelings or women need to be able to identify with her.

    Think Katy is far too ‘alpha’ for either of these.

  12. Rob

    I know exactly what you’re getting at, George, & what you elucidate in your post is why I sided with Helen pre-series to be Top Female.

    I got the feeling Katie was too upper/middle class in her airs and graces; rather too aloof and holier than thou. However, you also have to factor in the Anton factor. He is loved by the Strictly faithful and his fans, you sense, absolutely love the fact he has a capable partner for once.

    Also, it remains my view that a decent portion of Strictly’s stalwart female voters are very dinner party set. Strictly manages to rise above the detritus of other reality shows, and attracts that Telegraph-reading element.

    Katie has come across well so far and I think the Anton factor makes viewers more sympathetic towards her. I also have concerns about how Helen is coming across. She seems rather prissy and her porcelin doll appearance is jarring somehow.

    But Helen is the more naturally gifted dancer although her ballet background was apparent on Saturday in the way she was too stiff in the hips and legs.

    Katie is going to be severely tested in weeks when she has to dance fast Latin like samba and salsa, as Anton is the ballroom maestro but is a poor Latin dancer and choreographer. It’s certainly going to be a competitive battle on the female side in this series.

  13. Rob

    Saturday’s dances & songs:

    Ainsle and Natalie will be dancing the Cha Cha to ‘Boogie Wonderland’ from Happy Feet.

    Anita and Gleb will be performing the American Smooth to ‘Unchained Melody’ from Ghost.

    Anthony and Oti will be dancing the Paso Doble to ‘Eye Of The Tiger’ from Rocky.

    Carol and Pasha will be Quickstepping to ‘Wash That Man’ from South Pacific.

    Daniel and Kristina will be performing the Cha Cha to ‘Summer Nights’ from Grease.

    Georgia and Giovanni will be dancing the Rumba to ‘Writing’s On The Wall’ from Spectre.

    Helen and Aljaž will be performing the Foxtrot to ‘I Wanna Be Loved By You’ from Some Like It Hot.

    Jamelia and Tristan will be performing the Salsa to ‘Heaven Must Be Missing An Angel’ from Charlie’s Angels.

    Jay and Aliona will be Jiving to a medley of ‘Misirlou/You Never Can Tell’ from Pulp Fiction.

    Jeremy and Karen will be performing the Charleston to ‘Top Hat, White Tie & Tails’ from Top Hat.

    Katie and Anton will be dancing the Cha Cha to ‘Pretty Woman’ from Pretty Woman.

    Kellie and Kevin will be performing the Charleston to ‘Cantina Band’ from Star Wars.

    Kirsty and Brendan will be performing the American Smooth to ‘He’s A Tramp’ from Lady & The Tramp.

    Peter and Janette will be dancing the Paso Doble to ‘He’s A Pirate’ from Pirates Of The Caribbean.

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