Denise To Wow With VW
Last week was one of those glorious Strictly weeks you wish for every week. We suggested Michael looked a bottom 2 and elimination lay of epic proportions and so it proved.
Just prior to his dance 95 was also snapped up on Betfair on Michael ending the night as top scorer. So we were less than impressed with the higher scores awarded to Kimberley and Louis. Objectively speaking we genuinely thought Michael’s QS was the dance of the night and deserved an even higher score. We also thought Victoria’s tango was better than Kimberley’s paso.
Still, a win’s a win and moving on we again like Michael’s chances of avoiding the bottom 2 and elimination this week. He is dancing the foxtrot and we expect another accomplished effort. He and Natalie also have a great tune to dance to in Jackie Wilson’s ‘I Get The Sweetest Feeling’ and it’s not the wackiest punt to throw a few quid at Michael topping the leaderboard at 33-1 with Ladbrokes.
Our enthusiasm is tempered by the fact we really like the look of Denise topping the leaderboard this week, and see 6-4 with William Hill as a value price for her to do so. She has looked potentially great in training dancing the Viennese waltz and if she executes this on the night, we could even see the first 10s of the series dished out, which also makes 5-2 for a 10 to appear look an appealing price with Ladbrokes.
Dani is the other main contender for top spot in our view. She is dancing the jive which should really play to her and Vincent’s strengths. When we started writing this preview Dani was still available at 12-1. Now she is best price 7-1 with Ladbrokes for highest score but this still looks worth a saver in case Denise slips up somewhere.
Louis has the samba and we do not expect this to be his strongest week; nor Kimberley, doing a salsa, and incorporating wires in her routine, which could well lead to a collective thumbs down from the judges. Kimberley is also carrying a knee injury and looked severely hampered in training footage. For this reason, 50-1 Kimberley to be lowest scorer with William Hill is simply too big to pass up.
Colin will need a bottom 2 bounce dancing a foxtrot that early training VTs suggest is going to be nothing more than adequate. Richard also has a foxtrot and is dancing to Shirley Bassey’s ‘Hey Big Spender’. He has looked much improved in his training footage and certainly looks a lay for lowest score this week.
There look to be several contestants this week who could potentially have a ‘dance disaster, darling’. The aforementioned Kimberley; Nicky, too, looks like having a tough time with his rumba; Lisa has appeared ill at ease attempting the tango and faces her toughest week so far; while Victoria could potentially fall to pieces doing the samba.
Lisa to end up in the bottom 2 at 12-1 with Ladbrokes looks too big to resist, as does 10-1 Victoria for lowest score. We reckon Victoria will either do an adequate job and then be over-scored by the judges to try and push her into a safe position on the leaderboard. Or, she will really struggle, score poorly and get pelters, which would make her escape from the bottom 2 virtually assured.
If Nicky’s rumba scores poorly, his Westlife fans should get him out of trouble. Likewise a dismal Kimberley display more than likely will see her escape the bottom 2. With Colin likely to receive the usual post-bottom 2 bigging up from the judges, this should steer him towards safety, so we reckon Fern could be in most trouble this week dancing the paso doble.
The judges asked for more attack from her last week so this is the perfect dance to attempt this, but it still looks likely to be a below mid-table scoring effort by her. 3-1 Fern to be next eliminated is only fair value but certainly looks the most likely outcome pre-show.
As for the Outright, we took the view of taking on Louis pre-series by seeking value elsewhere. He is now a best price of 5-4. We will likely carry a red on him all the way to the final because we don’t think a winning public vote for Louis is by any means assured.
Our view is that Denise will go on to prove the outstanding dancer in this series and the show will seek to push her to victory in the latter stages. One, because they like the best dancer to win, and two, this series looks a prime opportunity to get a woman over the line first.
Denise has it in her to produce brilliance no other contestant looks capable of which in itself has the potential to win the audience over. They will probably have to try & build a compelling back story for her and, much like Kara Tointon’s battle with Matt Baker, it is not inconceivable this happens & proves successful, especially combined with some subtle Louis deramping.
Among the front 6 in the betting, we are most against Kimberley. We struggle to see any situation in which she coalesces a winning public vote. Similar to Louis, she is a rather emotionless technician who looks like struggling to ever truly inspire.
It could be a year for a journey contestant. Lisa’s bubble may well be starting to burst, and while Dani and Victoria could yet have a run and shorten in price, the one we like the look of most at current odds is Michael. He has come on in leaps and bounds doing ballroom, and it is not beyond the realms of possibility Natalie Lowe is able to improve his fast Latin enough to turn him into a genuine contender.
66-1 e/w on the Outright and 20-1 to be Top Male look huge odds worth partaking of, if only for a potential trade as Vaughan could yet go on to prove one of the all-time journey contestants.
It’s an intriguing series, and a very intriguing week. We sense there is some great value lurking around. How do you see things shaping up? Please do drop us a line below.
Rob Furber
Hi Rob, if Fern indeed lands in b2 do you reckon she will be eliminated against anyone? I have no feeling of the dance-off, if for example Richard ends up with her…
Hi Boki,
If Richard ends up in the bottom 2 with Fern, based on training footage this week, I’d fancy the judges to save Richard. He looks much improved.
The dilemma this week is the likes of Nicky, Kimberley, Lisa and Victoria all have the potential to score badly. You wouldn’t have thought the show would want to lose any of the latter 3 so if any of them did end up bottom 2 with Fern we could be in for an XF-style contrived save of them at Fern’s expense should such a scenario arise.
SportingBet have individual score betting again. No good for us but have to say, impressed with their SCD compiler.
3 possible standouts:
MV – over 27.5 – 5-6
Dani – over 31.5 – 11-10
Kimberley – under 31.5 – 4-6
Interesting Tweet from good old Dave Arch:
SCD Band @SCDband
All sorts going on today! All good, you wait and see 😉
Plenty of value to be had this week… I sense a big win tonight! and as is often the case, I agree with a few of your shouts here Rob.
Whilst I still shudder at the thought of Jason Donovan’s jive at Wembley, Denise for Week 5 top scorer feels a very confident pick to me, so much so I’m not covering on the 5/4 I’ve taken. They may dance well, but I don’t see the likes of Louis, Dani, Michael beating her.
Over 35pts at 6/4 is a bet a like the look of too, with cover to be had on 34-35pts at 6/4 should anyone want it. You can back the first to cover stakes on the second and it works out at 1/2. Very nice. 5/2 on a 10 isn’t bad and works for me too, albeit at a much smaller stake.
I am dutching Nicky & Vicky for Lowest Scorer, with cover on Fern who I prefer to back for Elimination @ 3/1.
A potential bumper night in store… good luck all 🙂
Good stuff, Bruce.
Sounds like Dani could be in for a stormer if we are to believe Lisa’s enthusiasm:
Lisa Jane riley @Reallisariley
Dress rehearsal done @MissDaniJHarmer is AMAZING tonight she is going to rock it with her Jive! My tango has to be full of fierce fire HOPE!
correction, Roach! Getting some of the most loyal posters mixed up 🙂
Thanks for the info Rob, I’m following this time and hopefully avoid my bad luck (have a saver on Dani as you suggested).
Cheers on Denise but it wasn’t enough for me to keep me positive :(. Michael messed up my (or to say our) lowest score combo and my bot2/elim didn’t land either according to spoiler.
Bad luck, Boki.
Richard really messed up the night. Without him forgetting his steps, it would have been Victoria last on the leaderboard and a nice double figure odds punt landed.
The scoring last night was bizarre. Kimberley was distinctly average yet got 32. Denise was stunning but only got 35, for a dance that deserved at least one 10.
Could see Colin was very vulnerable from his position on the leaderboard & had a cover on him to go. Sensed Fern was safe & a lay for bottom 2 after Artem turned up bare-chested.
Middle-aged women who vote on this show are very easily pleased.
Good call on Denise she was different class.
Agree re Kimberley I wonder perhaps if this massive overmarking was required because of some poor voting figures?
Should have made money on Colin I really don’t know why I didn’t pile on for at least a B2 position as I pretty much had him down for a dead cat type of bounce from last week’s B2.
I think Fern is going to linger much longer than some suspect. Sad to say I’m basing this on mainly on the coverage I’m seeing for her from the newstands. The ‘old dears’ reading material is treating her fairly sympathetically with a few sob stories.
We are due a shock next week I believe – it will certainly tell us a lot as I’d be heavily laying the anticipated (well by the bookies odds) Richard v Fern B2
Been surprised how well Fern’s vote has held up so far.
Could be right, Bruce, regarding next week. Fern should presumably have a ballroom so the chance to shine & get higher up the leaderboard. Richard should get the bottom 2 bounce.
Think they said Michael has a salsa so he could be vulnerable but would hope they are sympathetic towards him with their comments & give him further chance to improve & build momentum.
Everyone seems to get bot2 bounce except Colin…
Yes, Boki. Possibly several reasons for this. He danced in an unmemorable fashion & received distinctly average comments, rather than the ‘well done you on coming back so strongly after last week’ treatment. He found himself in a very dangerous spot on the leaderboard, & while middle England SCD voters would vehemently deny the charge, there is often a slightly racist element at play, & has been borne out over the years. Colin also had a very wishy-washy celebrity profile which can’t have helped.