Golden Oldies

Sep 16, 2020 by Rob

It now stands at 10-7 male winners to female winners across the history of Strictly and with a man winning in 4 of the last 5 years, the BBC may favour a female winner this year.

Emma Barton appeared to be pencilled in as TCO (the chosen one) last year prior to Kelvin coming in as a last minute replacement for the injured Jamie Laing, and turning out to be an unstoppable middle England mum (mem) appealing, dancing force of nature.

As history shows us, it is no easy task for TPTB to achieve a female winner. Stacey Dooley in 2018 was aided enormously in her run by being paired with Kevin from Grimsby seeking a first series win in his fifth final. This tells us the pairings among this year’s female contestants will be a crucial part of the jigsaw.

There are clear voting concerns among the early front-runners in the Outright starting with HRVY, aka Harvey Leigh Cantwell, 21, who will be unknown to the vast majority of the voting audience. He is a singer, tv presenter, and ‘YouTube sensation’. He looks fleet of foot and may well excel in the fast Latins.

His participation on the show probably says more about the BBC’s obsession in trying to engage a younger audience and have someone with a big social media presence take part (Joe Sugg, Saffron Barker) than it does about actually wanting him to win.

Maisie Smith, 19, is an Eastenders actress and a big star on TikTok with clips there showing that she can certainly cut a rug. Maisie also had a run out in a past Eastenders does Strictly segment for Children In Need (about 10 minutes in) and looks the part.

Louis Smith remains the youngest winner of Strictly, aged 23, and while Maisie has the makings of a top notch dancer the concern would be a lack of relatability for the core Strictly audience, but at least her Eastenders profile means she will be familiar to some viewers.

Maisie got in trouble for smoking a spliff in a parked car back in the summer. Hold the front page! We need to hear more from her in interview but she does seem to have some natural charm about her.

She also appears to be the smallest among this year’s cast of female celebs, so logic dictates the shortest male pro, Gorka, looks her most likely partner, after he was benched last year. However, that’s certainly not a given and the BBC has past form for throwing curveballs when it comes to pairings.

It is easy to imagine Maisie and HRVY coming out of the blocks strongly at series start but when contestants are brilliant week in, week out, there is a huge risk of no series narrative, no ‘journey’. Only a mem-pleasing juggernaut, Kelvin-type contestant can usually overcome this.

Max George, 31, is in the boyband The Wanted and played Clint in season 6 of Glee. Digging up videos of Clint dancing in Glee reveal he will have some dancing acumen but it is also noticeable he isn’t tasked with any significant dance moves in those choreographed numbers.

Past winner Jay McGuiness, also of The Wanted, had significant stage school dancing experience Max appears to lack. Jay also had a boyish, shy charm working for him and produced one of the all-time great routines with that Pulp Fiction-inspired jive.

Made In Chelsea’s Jamie Laing, 31, exhibited a hint of dance ability last year prior to his withdrawal due to injury and is expected to be a leading light in this series. A ‘posh’ profile looks a good fit on paper but does he possess the requisite charm? Interestingly, a blonde guy has never won Strictly and he might lack a rugged enough look to fully win over Strictly’s older female voters.

JJ Chalmers, 33, is a Scottish tv presenter and Invictus Games medallist. Injured in a bomb blast in Afghanistan while serving as a Royal Marine, he endured facial injuries, lost two fingers and his right elbow was disintegrated.

As this year’s less able-bodied contestant, and with a powerful back story, JJ should enjoy plenty of backing from TPTB and could have some journey potential. He also won’t be physically compromised the way Will Bayley, Lauren Steadman and Jonnie Peacock were, all of whom had decent runs on the show.

Jason Bell, 42, is a former American footballer who now helps present NFL coverage on the BBC. He’s a real bright spark on that show but the concern would be, he might come across as too American for middle England voters despite him anticipated to be a pretty decent dancer.

Stand-up comic Bill Bailey, 55, is also musical and has acting credits. His performance skills, especially if he goes the self-deprecating route, hamming up routines, could prove tv gold.

After the extended misery of lockdown and all of its fallout, the BBC will probably be especially keen to offer the audience some light entertainment on a Saturday night and Bill has the potential to fulfil this role with aplomb. It will be fun to see how he is styled in Halloween Week, which looks like falling in week 2 this year, as he has a look tailor-made for a spooky, horror make-over.

Nicola Adams, 37, is a former Olympic boxing champion, and will form one half of the show’s first ever same sex couple. Nicola has requested to lead dances and is not keen on wearing dresses. There is no escaping the fact a black lesbian is a difficult sell to Middle England but that probably won’t stop the show relentlessly talking her up, pointing out what an inspirational role model she is, along with any other eulogy they can dream up along the way.

In her favour, Nicola has genuine charisma and likability about her, and is great in interview, and two women dancing together is probably more palatable to a conservative British audience compared to two men. One thing’s for sure – it has to be an odds-on shot her week 1 choreo will be a boxing-themed routine. ‘Eye Of The Tiger’ anyone?

Ranvir Singh, 43, is political editor on ITV’s Good Morning Britain and an ITN newsreader. The show may well try and keep Ranvir in for a few weeks for cross-promotional purposes on ITV’s breakfast show, but she certainly doesn’t enjoy the ideal profile for Strictly, and doesn’t scream contender pre-lives.

Clara Amfo, 36, is best known as a Radio 1 DJ, turning up as a presenter on music events such as BBC’s coverage of Glastonbury and The Proms. She will be able to shake her booty but there have to be question marks over her popularity with voters. Last year Dev Griffin, who enjoyed a similar sort of DJ profile to Clara, was the 3rd elimination despite exhibiting significant dance ability.

Jacqui Smith, 57, was the first female Home Secretary and got caught up in the MP expenses scandal back in 2009. She looks a worthy rank outsider and it would come as no surprise to see Anton paired with her.

Caroline Quentin, 60, is probably best known for her role in BBC comedy Men Behaving Badly back in the 90s. Caroline does have some dance training background. She performed ballet up until the age of 12 and modern dance and tap after that. She has also starred in theatre musicals including ‘Me And My Girl’.

She will need to defy the age stats to win although the same can be said for Maisie at the other end of the age spectrum. Pamela Stephenson made the final in 2010 aged 61, and Debbie McGee was 59 when she made the final in 2017 so at least there are precedents. Being an oldie could become part of a feel-good ‘journey’ narrative for viewers to buy into, an audience that looks a much more natural fit with Caroline compared to most of the rest of this year’s field.

This year’s series looks like running from October 24 to December 19. If we have the usual 4-couple final, they will need a double elimination somewhere along the way if they don’t have an elimination in week 1 which would be a break from the norm. A shortened run of 9 weeks, compared to the usual 13, means there will be more opportunity for celebs to avoid unsuitable dances, so the dances allotted to couples each week are going to be more illuminating than ever.

With Nicola paired with a female pro, only 5 male pros will be required this year, as opposed to 7 female pros. The launch show, when the pairings are unveiled, is being recorded on Monday October 12 and we should see a spoiler list appear on Digital Spy shortly afterwards. The BBC’s ballot for Strictly tickets has opened and as things stand, the shows are going to be recorded in front of a restricted studio audience.

Hopefully Covid doesn’t strike anyone down and cause further disruption to this series with celebrities on standby to come in as replacements. Anyone investing in the Strictly Outright on the Betfair Exchange should be aware of the fact this is a market whereby ***ALL BETS STAND RUN OR NOT*** which means if you back a contestant who ends up having to pull out, you will lose your money.