Hel Of A Chance

Dec 9, 2022 by Rob

The big Helen moment finally arrived in last Friday’s Musicals Week (quarter-final) courtesy of her inspired Couple’s Choice routine set to ‘Mein Herr’ from Cabaret.

It has had over 500k views on YouTube in less than a week and set social media abuzz with a huge amount of pro-Helen sentiment. If you’re talking series-defining moments, this was one of them and it strongly rivals Hamza’s week 4 salsa which has had 854k views in close to two months.

The price difference between Hamza and Helen has narrowed on Betfair this week, and while some were convinced the 2022 series was a done deal a month ago, when Hamza was being backed as low as 1.3, it now looks less clear cut heading into Sunday’s semi-final.

It feels like Helen is building what could be some crucial late momentum but there are still some key jigsaw pieces to be fitted in. In particular, how the final is going to shake down. Not just the question of which four couples make the final, but which dances will be selected by the judges, the impact of the show dances, and which routines the couples themselves choose to reprise.

Regarding the latter, Helen’s Couple’s Choice should be on the table as an option. While extra dancers were utilised last Friday we have seen many such Musicals Week numbers reprised in finals shorn of backing dancers, and Caroline Flack’s ‘Around The World’ Charleston to ‘Istanbul’ is another example. It is possible to envisage it working with just Helen and Gorka performing it, as it’s really all about Helen:

It was highly informative last Friday to see the judges create a leaderboard in the spitting image of the Week 10 one, Molly and Fleur tied in the middle, with Hamza used as a public vote buffer, as was the case with Helen in week 10.

Musicals Week – week 11 – quarter-final – judges’ leaderboard:

Helen & Gorka: Couple’s Choice (Musical Theatre) – (5) – 9, 10, 10, 10 = 39
Will & Nancy: Foxtrot – (4) – 9, 10, 10, 10 = 39
Molly & Carlos: Charleston – (1) – 9, 10, 10, 9 = 38 – bottom 2
Fleur & Vito: Quickstep – (6) – 9, 10, 9, 10 = 38
Hamza & Jowita: Samba – (2) – 9, 9, 9, 9 = 36
Kym & Graziano: Cha Cha Cha – (3) – 8, 9, 9, 8 = 34 – eliminated

Week 10 judges’ leaderboard:

Will & Nancy: Charleston – (1) – 9, 10, 10, 9 = 38
Hamza & Jowita: Argentine Tango – (5) – 8, 10, 10, 9 = 37
Molly & Carlos: Tango – (2) – 8, 9, 9, 9 = 35
Fleur & Vito: Rumba – (4) – 8, 9, 9, 9 = 35 – bottom 2
Helen & Gorka: Samba – (6) – 5, 8, 8, 8 = 29
Ellie T & Johannes: Jive – (3) – 5, 7, 6, 7 = 25 – eliminated

For those out there who still don’t believe these sort of things are intentionally done, then you need to wake up and smell the sequin subterfuge.

This was to ensure at least one of either Molly or Fleur would escape the dance-off, and thus trapping the contestant in last place, with whoever polled lower between Molly and Fleur then acting as dance-off assassin. It’s the Strictly leaderboard equivalent of a pincer movement.

Sunday’s semi-final will see, ‘Three paso dobles, two Charl-es-tons and a ten paddle from Motsi.’

We also have two waltzes, an AS, an AT and a CC, but none of those fitted as well in the seasonal pun. Among the ten dances to be performed on the night, Will’s CC, with its odd-looking, ‘Madchester’ indie tribute theme, looks the weakest on paper.

Helen has the same combination of semi-final dances as Rose last year. To pull one out from the archives, her Argentine tango music has been used before by Rachel Stevens and Vincent Simone for their tango back in 2008 in the quarter-final which scored 39:

The prods appear to be having some fun with Molly’s choice of paso music ’Survivor’, given she has so far managed to survive four dance-offs and could easily be on for a 5th.

Having gone to the trouble of saving Molly four times, it doesn’t sit right for her to then be dumped out in the semi-final so there could be a concerted effort to try and help her avoid the dance-off.

The key to unlocking Sunday night’s semi will be comparing the highest scoring dances between Fleur, Molly and Will, as those will be the ones they potentially reprise in the dance-off.

Hazarding a guess, that could turn out to be Fleur’s Charleston vs Molly’s AS, vs Will’s paso. No matter where Hamza and Helen are placed on the leaderboard their respective pvs should see them go directly to the final.

Fleur is the only contestant remaining who hasn’t yet opened the show and if they’re going to try and give Molly a big push on the night then we could see her earn a second pimp slot. Given the last four pimps have been Hamza, Will, Helen and Fleur this looks firmly on the cards.

A Molly vs Fleur dance-off still appears to be the most likely outcome pre-show, and TPTB may ideally want to have all of Hamza, Helen and Will go to the final having not appeared in a dance-off to keep people guessing regarding who might win.

Pre-show, Fleur looks more at risk than Molly of falling at the final hurdle, but don’t discount the possibility of a shock Will elimination.

Please do let us know who got your vote(s) when our semi-final exit poll opens at the end of Sunday night’s show.

Strictly 2022 Exit Poll – Semi-Final

Last week’s poll suggested Fleur was in more trouble than Molly of joining Kym in the dance-off.

It’s a reminder online exit polls can only ever be a small guide but our suspicion is, the pv totals Fleur and Molly are earning have been interchangeably last and 2nd last across the series and at this stage are probably very close.

Semi-final (week 12) dances & songs:

Fleur & Vito: Charleston to Tu Vuo’ Fa L’Americano by Fiorello and Paso Doble to The Time Is Now by Moloko
Helen & Gorka: Argentine Tango to Here Comes The Rain Again by Eurythmics and Waltz to Only One Road by Céline Dion 
Molly & Carlos: Paso Doble to Survivor by 2WEI ft Edda Hayes and American Smooth to Easy On Me by Adele
Hamza & Jowita: Charleston to Pencil Full Of Lead by Paolo Nutini and Waltz to What The World Needs Now by Burt Bacharach
Will & Nancy: Couple’s Choice to Know How / Fools Gold / Step On Young MC / The Stone Roses / Happy Mondays and Paso Doble to Uccen – DWTS Remix by Taalbi Brothers