Hollins charge to continue

Dec 4, 2009 by

With so much happening in ‘Specials’ world right now, and value there to be snapped up, another December 4 post is in order.
It’s the Strictly quarter-final tomorrow night,, with Darcey Bussell joining the judging panel. The biggest impact Darcey will have is lessening the likelihood of any ties on the leaderboard.
The four remaining couples will be performing 2 dances – one ballroom, one Latin, and having gone through all the most likely permutations, we reckon the bookies haven’t done their maths correctly, and hence there are some great prices to be had.
Last week there was a sense of the judges unsubtly ordering the leaderboard, with Laila under-marked, and this trend looks set to continue. As such Laila looks likely to end up 3rd on the leaderboard, at best, despite her American Smooth looking very promising in training, and her Salsa having the potential to be her best fast Latin to date.
If you believe the Daily Star Chris Hollins has been romping away with the public vote, and if this remains the case even if he finishes last on the judges’ leaderboard he has a great chance of escaping the dance off, and last week’s entertaining Charleston must have cemented his position as the public favourite:

We won’t bore you with the maths, but an Ali versus Ricky dance off could end up a 50/50 call if Chris tops the public vote and Laila polls 2nd top – which appears a not unreasonable assumption to make – so at 12s with Ladbrokes that’s a must punt. Given the possibility of this scenario, it is also worth backing Ricky at 9s and Ali at 10s to be eliminated.
The Laila/Ali and Laila/Ricky bottom 2 combos should also be backed at 4-1 and 11-4 respectively, scaling the size of your bet to achieve similar profits.
Even if Laila finds herself in the bottom 2 against Ali or Ricky, she has a chance of being saved if she performs her AS perfectly in the dance off, with Len having the casting vote on a panel of 5.
Ricky has been struggling with illness this week so he could be prone to error performing a technical foxtrot or cha cha cha, and the tango may not be Ali’s ideal if she finds herself dancing to stay in the competition.
Rob Furber

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