Holly & Alex Facing Exit

Dec 7, 2011 by

It’s the Strictly semi on Saturday and the bookies appear convinced it will be Holly and Alex departing. We were surprised Alex escaped the bottom 2 last Saturday and equally surprised to see Robbie eliminated.
Even given Len’s implicit suggestion to voters not to pick up the phones for Robbie, he had proven solid support over previous weeks and we struggle to see why it disappeared. While his edit did not go to town on the terrible week he had had, it did not need to and we struggle to see how he didn’t collect at least 3pts on the pv, more likely 4.
Jason had a very crowd-pleasing routine and we find it equally hard to believe he was bottom of the pv but it looks like he must have been for Holly not to have been in the bottom 2 instead of him, unless Chelsee was bottom of the pv which is even harder to believe given her pimp slot and highest score.
It was clear the judges were trying to protect Holly and Chelsee by putting them at the top of the leaderboard. We know Holly hasn’t polled well in previous weeks, falling into the bottom 2 twice. If Robbie scored 3, Alex scored at least 4 on the pv. If Robbie scored 4, Alex scored at least 5. In conclusion, we see this as the most likely scenario but still find the scoring last Saturday peculiar to say the least.

Chelsee 6 + 5 = 11
Holly 5 + 2 = 7
Jason 4 + 1 = 5
Harry 3 + 6 = 9
Alex 2 + 4 = 6
Robbie 1 + 3 = 4

On Saturday, they will each perform twice, thus:

Alex – Salsa / Waltz
Harry – Charleston / VW
Holly – Charleston / AT
Chelsee – Paso / Am Smooth
Jason – Samba / AT

We can expect Jason to get a healthy boost and probably a bit of a leg up from the judges after his surprise appearance in the bottom 2. Holly, meanwhile, is going to have to dance her socks off and score very highly to have any chance of reaching the final.
Given Alex is, in our view, by far the weakest dancer left in the competition, and the fact she will have to perform a salsa as one of her dances, we expect a polite well done but with her ending up placing last overall on the judges’ leaderboard.
They will want at least one female in the final so it is likely Chelsee will find herself top or 2nd top on the leaderboard. Jason should find himself in the top 3, as should Harry, so the only possibility looks to be Alex somehow managing to overtake Jason overall. For this to happen she will likely need to find herself no worse than second from bottom on the leaderboard with Jason placed third.
Holly may find herself in the unfortunate position of having her 2 dances compared unfavourably alongside Jason (also doing the AT) and Harry (also doing the Charleston).
We doubt Chelsee’s paso will be any great shakes but her AS will be better and given they all have 2 dances, the judges have ample leeway to order the scoreboard as they see fit regardless.
We are ultimately struggling to find any great value angle which is probably just as well as the value punter has not fared well in this series of Strictly. We think it will be Harry, Jason and Chelsee who progress to the final, with Holly and Alex eliminated, so advise taking the 11-8 with Ladbrokes on this double elimination combo.
We think Holly will be first to get her marching orders, so advise the widely-available 11-8 Holly to be next eliminated.
Looking towards the final, the finalists should dance at least one dance they have not yet danced, if that makes sense. And these would be the choices if Harry, Chelsee and Jason make it through:
Harry: AS/Paso
Chelsee: VW/Rumba
Jason: Waltz/Salsa
It looks a no-brainer that Harry will pick the AS, Chelsee the VW and Jason the Waltz, though Aliona loves taking risks and may be tempted to give Harry the bare-chested bravado of the paso. They will all reprise favourite routines from the series and we can see Jason doing his tango as he can camp it up and it’s a real crowd-pleaser, which is one reason why we think Jason still has the potential to grab second place.

We think Harry is a virtual certainty now to win the entire series, and it’s more a question of who finishes 2nd behind him. The Harry/Jason straight forecast is certainly the value call, currently offered at a best price of 100-30 with Skybet.
Rob Furber

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