Is Denise Doomed?
A rapid-fire SCD post in light of today’s Star story found here.
The simple trading conclusion is that while Louis could conceivably still be eliminated at the semi-final stage, it is looking more likely he makes the final courtesy of his strong public vote, and with the final being decided on pv only, then goes on to win this series.
11-10 is the best price in the high street for Louis to win which will likely look very good value indeed after the Outright opens again on Betfair this evening, and his price rapidly shortens.
Given what this story outlines regarding Lisa and Dani doing better than Denise on the public vote, there is probably even better value in backing both Lisa at 12-1 with Boylesports and Dani at 11-2 with Ladbrokes to be Top Female, staking it to secure roughly the same potential profit if either one of them is the last woman standing.
Denise may well manage to steer clear of the bottom 2 in the next 2 weeks as long as she secures top spot on the judges’ leaderboard. But it is also fair to assume at least one of Lisa or Dani is likely to make the final where, based on today’s information, either one of them will likely outpoll Denise.
Our read of last night, and the series as a whole, is the judges continue to over-score the women and seemingly try and push them into a position of safety on the leaderboard. Why? Probably because they would ideally like a woman to win.
We cannot for one minute imagine the criticism Louis has received in recent weeks was intended to increase his vote. We think it is more likely incompetence on the judges’ part in failing to dampen his vote.
There does still remain the possibility they will try and ramp a female contestant ahead of Louis come the final. Based on today’s Star story, we can only conclude if they try for this they stand more chance of being successful pushing either Dani or Lisa, rather than Denise.
Rob Furber
Hi Rob, what about Kimberley? She is my big red everywhere so I’m concerned about her chances…
Hi Boki, mine too & not panicking… yet. Story tells us Kimberley hit top spot at Wembley – week of her big bounce after b2.
Reading between lines & my own intuition on this, tells me Lisa & Dani are outpolling Kimberley & no reason to think this will change.
‘Also doing well are Tracy Beaker star Dani Harmer, 23, and ex-Emmerdale actress Lisa Riley, 36.’
Lisa still 10-1 for TF with Boyles – looks a very big price. We have seen perfect 40s in the final for past female contestants like Lisa Snowden & she still only finished 3rd – same fate could easily await Denise.
Only risk with Lisa is, she needs to negotiate next 2 weeks but signs are there in the scoring, & comments, that the judges are keen to keep her in.
Could see Kimberley b2 again next week – that may lead to a 2nd mini-bounce ahead of the 5-couple semi-final but do not think even this will be enough for her to secure one of the 3 final spots.
First of all Rob, forgot to say many thanks for this article, I was absent whole day and could easily miss the Star leak.
Btw, if I understand it correctly (again newbie talk) judge’s scores are taken into points calculation in the semi-final also (so only not in the final)?
Rg the prices, they are very tempting, I just need to wait for some other bookies 🙁
That’s right, Boki, as far as we know at this stage & based on previous 5-couple semi-finals – it will be the usual 50/50 split – leaderboard & pv.
Then in the 3-couple final, it is pv only with judges’ scores purely given ‘as guidance’.
Rob, alert, some strange pricing @Bluesq!
Gone already…
What was the price there, Boki?
Check your email please…
Btw is Nicky doomed for next elim? Can he bounce again? Will he get salsa/samba or waltz/smooth?
Need to see confirmation of dances, Boki – they are having this ‘dance fusion’ week on Sat whereby the couples incorporate 2 dance genres in 1 routine.
Fear for Nicky – after the way his AT was under-scored on Sat looks like they want rid.
I was hoping to get Denise in the 5s again but the market is too canny. Odds all look right, that’s why I don’t spend too much time on it.
At the beginning of the competition she was getting 1000 plus “likes” for negative comments on Daily Mail articles. It’s down to nearer 100 now. Still negative, and I can’t say I’ve taken accurate recordings – just casual glances, but it shows improvement. The crux for me was that the comments weren’t against her personality. She’s nice. They were against the perceived unfairness of her dance experience. I’ve never seen the hate that the Betfair forum have for Denise anywhere.
So no journey for Denise. So if another girl gets as good or almost as good they have a big advantage. But Denise is just so wonderful to watch.
So Louis wins. But even though I think that I have no attraction for evens at this stage. Maybe because I was bitten by Ella and Rosemary and a little bit by Brian.
What I was getting at in the second paragraph was that I don’t think her low votes are terminal (but that her votes with Louis’s high votes does make him the deserved hot favourite even though they’d like a woman winner).
You could well be right, Henry. Often, a sense of ‘fair play’ kicks in towards the end of series & she is so, so good, if she nails some truly great routines she is not out of it.
They probably need to be a bit cunning with her backstage VTs to try & get the public on side. In this respect, Lisa looks the one who could get treatment about her ‘journey’, weight loss etc… so it’s certainly not a given that Louis wins.
Rob has Lisa lost weight?
I was just thinking, I think while watching ITT today, that she couldn’t possibly have been fatter than she is now. But I don’t know.
Even tonight on It Takes Two Craig was talking about Denise being better than her professional partner. This is a recurring comment and seems quite deliberate to me. Are they stupid enough to think this is helping her chances? I really don’t think so. It is simply reinforcing the early public perception of he having an unfair advantage.
Either way I don’t see a way back for the amazing spinning Denise.
Dani reminds me a little of Chelsee Healeys’s challenge last year – people are starting to warm to her but again like Chelsea her body shape, tattoos etc aren’t going to overcome someone with Louis’s credentials. I can see her finishing second though.
I’m still completely against Lisa’s chances even with the Stars figures. I think she’s in decline and Dani is coming through far more strongly. Dani can look good in both disciplines Ballroom and Latin whereas I can’t ever see Lisa looking graceful in Ballroom.
All the surprise element has gone from her Latin, leaving basically a fun energetic ‘big girl’. Enough to win – I’d be amazed
Well-reasoned comments, Bruce. It does seem like the Beeb have not fully sussed out how to manipulate the GBP in the same way Syco can in XF.
In Louis’s favour is that whatever he produces on the dancefloor, he gets standing ovations and if the judges then criticise his routines this is booed by the studio audience.
Going back to Matt Baker’s & Tom Chambers’ years, there wasn’t so much of this hubbub going on.
Apparently Lisa has lost so much weight, Henry, she has dropped 4 dress sizes according to the Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2239714/Strictly-Come-Dancing-2012-Lisa-Riley-shows-weight-loss-festive-mini-dress.html
It is hard to believe!!!
Interesting breaking SCD news this morning that it will be a 4-couple final for the 1st time:
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/entertainment/tv-radio/strictly-come-dancing-final-to-be-fought-1473327
We are trying to work out why they have decided upon this. Full post later this week.